Arctic Blast of cold air to bring Snow to parts of northeastern US this weekend!

The coldest air of the season so far is set to dive into the northeastern United States this weekend.

A cold front will dive southward on Friday, causing temperatures behind it to plummet well below normal for the weekend.

“A brisk northwest wind will bring an early December-like chill to the Northeast this weekend,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido said.

High temperatures from New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., will be around 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for mid-November. The strong northwest winds will make it feel far colder.

Saturday will be the coldest day of the weekend.

Warm clothing will be required for any outdoor activities on Friday night into Saturday as AccuWeather Realfeel® Temperatures will be in the 30s from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and in the 20s from New York City to Boston.

There will be a winter chill for Friday and Saturday night sporting events across the region.

In interior portions of the Northeast, Realfeel® Temperatures will fall into the teens during Saturday morning.

The cold air moving over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes will produce persistent cloud cover and areas of rain and snow to the southeast.

“This setup will be conducive for lake-effect rain and snow showers,”

During Friday night, light rain will change to all snow, even at lower elevations away from the immediate lakeshore, as temperatures fall below freezing, bringing a coating to areas that have the most persistent snow showers.

While snow showers will initially melt on area roadways during Friday night, slick spots may develop once temperatures fall below freezing.

Snow showers will then mix or change over to rain showers during Saturday afternoon across the lower elevations of Pennsylvania and New York state as temperatures rise above freezing. Little or no accumulation is expected.

“In the higher elevations of Pennsylvania and New York state, precipitation may stay in the form of snow all day Saturday,” Vido said.

Snow showers will also stretch into northern New England. A few flurries may even approach the I-95 corridor. Enough snow may fall to shovel, especially across the Catskills, Adirondacks and White and Green Mountains by Saturday night.

Temperatures will recover a bit on Sunday afternoon as high pressure pushes the brunt of the cold away, along with the clouds and wind. However, highs will still be below average.

Heavy Snow moving into parts of the UK!

A quick update on our post yesterday and another look at the areas at most risk.

We said yesterday about the risk posed by a large area of moisture sweeping off the Atlantic and hitting the cold air currently in situe over large parts of the UK.

This in turn is going to see the first meaningful snowfall that has the potential to cause disruption in some areas through this evening and into tomorrow.

As of the time of writing 1pm GMT the precipitation falling as snow is moving into Western parts of Scotland gradually pushing Eastwards. By around 6pm this Evening parts of Northwest England will also see the first snowflakes begin to fall. By Midnight tonight the areas shown in pink in the image below are at most risk of seeing any accumulating snow although for low ground this may only be temporary during the heaviest spells.

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The UK Met Office has released an updated warning that reads as follows…

"Rain will turn to snow in places later on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This could bring accumulations of 4 to 8 cm across some hilly areas of northern England and Scotland, largely above 200-300 m, with as much as 15 cm possible above 300-400 m. 

Overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as snow peters out over Scotland, Pennine areas are expected to receive a covering of snow, largely on vegetated surfaces above 200-300 m. However, there is also the potential for 5-10 cm of snow to settle to low levels over parts of Yorkshire and down into the northeast Midlands, though with a good deal of uncertainty about this. 

Please be aware of the potential for difficult driving conditions in some areas."

The Greatest 24-Hour Snowfalls in the USA

Snow can pile up several feet in a day’s time when conditions are ripe in many U.S. states.
In fact, 48 of 50 states have received more than a foot of snow during a single 24-hour period, according to data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Of those 50 states, 32 of them – mostly in the West, Midwest and Northeast – have had snowfalls of 30 inches or more in 24 hours.

During those extreme situations, snowfall rates are often an inch or more per hour. Thundersnow also sometimes occurs, an indication of unstable air and strong upward motion in the atmosphere, resulting in heavy snow.

States With Greatest 24-Hour Snowfall Records

Colorado leads the pack with the most extreme 24-hour snowfall record in the Lower 48 states.

If you were 6 feet tall and standing outside for 24 hours in Silver Lake, Colorado, April 14-15, 1921, you would’ve been buried by snow from head to toe. That location saw 6.3 feet (75.8 inches) of snow high in the Rockies at an elevation of 10,220 feet.

One location in Alaska, however, takes the crown for all 50 states.

Tucked away in the mountains northeast of Valdez, Alaska, is Mile 47 Camp, which was buried by 78 inches of snow in the 24 hours ending Feb. 9, 1963. Here, winter storms in the Gulf of Alaska send moisture from the Pacific into the mountainous terrain, making it an ideal spot for incredible snowfall totals.

Three other states have had 24-hour snowfalls exceeding 50 inches, and much like the top two locations, mountainous terrain also played a role in squeezing out those extreme totals.

Those states are California (67 inches in the Sierra Nevada), Washington (65 inches in the Cascades) and South Dakota (52 inches in the Black Hills).

Recent 24-Hour Snowfall Records Broken

Five U.S. states have set new 24-hour snowfall records during the past 10 years.

Connecticut is the most recent state to rewrite the record books when a location near Ansonia saw 36 inches Feb. 8-9, 2013. That new benchmark for the state was set during Winter Storm Nemo, which also hammered several other New England states with more than a foot of snow.

About two years earlier, Oklahoma set a new 24-hour snowfall record when 27 inches piled up in Spavinaw Feb. 9-10, 2011.

A single spring blizzard in March 2009 propelled two states to new 24-hour records. Pratt, Kansas, and Follett, Texas, made state history with 30 inches and 25 inches of snow, respectively, in the 24 hours ending March 28, 2009.

The fifth state to set a new record in the last decade is Nebraska, where 27 inches was measured near Dalton in the 24-hours ending Dec. 21, 2006.

Coldest Winter in 100 Years set to Hit Britain!

Sound familiar?

Of course it does, As we barrel through September we find ourselves on the brink of more sensationalist headlines from certain parts of the press.

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And of course that will mean headlines like the one we attached to this, A long with many others! Of course eventually they might be right but not through any forecasting means and simply by getting lucky!

We are all for people talking about the weather and these headlines achieve that, But it also gives the impression to many people that forecasters dont have a clue.

So next time you share a winter forecast to your timeline make sure its from a genuine weather outlet & not a sensationalist newspaper!

Winter expected to be Cold!

WEATHER experts are warning Irish citizens this week that the up-and-coming winter season may actually get cold and even wet at times, all depending on the temperature and rainfall amounts.

Forecasters said the change will even affect some trees, which will lose their leaves over the coming months.

Explaining the unusual phenomenon, meteorologist Martin Byrne warned that December, January & February will probably be colder than the rest of the months in the year, and advised people to wear warmer clothes than they would in spring and summer.

“I would advise everyone in the country to buy a hat, jacket and a pair of gloves in preparation for this sudden change in climate,” he said. “These items of clothing can be purchased in any good clothes shop, and will protect you from the cold air. If you don’t have any form of heating in your home, I’d advise you to get some quick. Note: you cannot buy jumpers or jackets for houses, as they don’t make them that size.”

Along with the cold, darkness is also expected, with light dissipating earlier in the evening than in previous months.

“Motorists will have to turn their lights on to drive in the dark,” Byrne explained, demonstrating with a torch and making ‘vroom vroom’ noises while steering an imaginary wheel. “It could also rain in the dark too, so make sure your car has windscreen wipers,” he added, now moving his head side-to-side.

The winter weather is expected to last right up to January, and even Febuary, before getting slightly warmer in time for spring, which is a whole other ball game altogether.

Brace for a Frigid Winter with Heavy Snowfall!

The Long Range Weather Forecast has been released by The Old Farmer’s Almanac and it’s looking great for snow lovers!

They are predicting above average snowfall and frigid conditions. The end of November is looking the snowiest along with Mid-January and early February.

As far as temperatures go, we are warned to brace ourselves for the teeth chattering temperatures during the months of January and February for the Northeast and Midwest. A wet and rainy Winter is in the forecast across the Pacific Northwest, but plenty of warmer than average days expected across the South!

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Now, it’s up to you to decide if you will be following The Old Farmer’s Almanac Long-Range Weather Forecast which has been predicted for hundreds of years. The almanac is based on a secret formula that founder, Robert B. Thomas, designed using solar cycles, climatology, and meteorology. It claims to have an 80 percent accuracy rate so the choice is yours! Nonetheless, stay warm this winter!

La Nina to bring HEAVY Snowfall and Severe Cold this winter!

El Niño officially came to an end in early June, and experts are calling for a La Niña to develop in its footsteps.

La Niña is the cool counterpart to El Niño, characterized by unusually low ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

La Niña puts emphasis on the northern jet stream while weakening the southern jet stream, keeping moisture in the northern tier of the country.

The jet stream is a narrow zone of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, separating warm air to the south and cooler air to the north.

At this point in the season, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a weak La Niña to develop during late fall and into the winter. An area of warmer-than-normal water off the northwestern U.S. coast, nicknamed the “warm blob,” is inhibiting a strong La Niña from forming.

The pocket of warm water is expected to linger, influencing La Niña and its impacts in the United States.

Here’s what a weak La Niña could mean for the U.S.:

A developing weak La Niña will lead to an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean through the rest of the peak hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.

“Historically, some hurricane seasons that have followed a transition from El Niño to La Niña have been very active. It’s possible we could flip from one extreme to the other, from below-normal seasons the past three years to an above-normal year in 2016,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

La Niña will suppress the westerly winds that typically disrupt tropical development in the Atlantic, giving way for more systems to form.

Transitioning into the fall, warmth could hold on late in the season across the eastern United States.

(Image credit: Accuweather)

La Niña will bring its full impacts to the U.S. throughout the winter season, Pastelok said.

In the East, snowfall is expected to be around normal. La Niña could lead to some big East Coast systems during the second half of the season.

“Areas like southern New York state and northeastern Pennsylvania that missed out on snow last year could see higher-than-normal totals this winter,” Pastelok said.

Colder-than-normal conditions are predicted to grip the northern Rockies and northern Plains over the late fall and into the winter, with some harsh spells at times.

During the coldest periods in the winter, nighttime temperatures could drop into the minus 30 to minus 40-degree Fahrenheit range.

“The wet and stormy weather that will hit the South into the fall will begin to quiet down in the winter as La Niña really kicks in,” Pastelok said.

However, the expected weak strength of La Niña will allow some moisture to sneak into the region at times.

For flood-ravaged areas like Missouri and eastern Texas, the mainly dry weather will prove beneficial.

Dry weather will exacerbate drought conditions across the Southwest. Central and Southern California could face the harshest conditions, including below-normal snowpack in the southern Sierra Nevada.

The northwestern U.S. will experience the brunt of La Niña’s impacts, leading to stormy conditions throughout the winter. However, the warm blob will limit the cold a typical La Niña would bring to the area.

Alaska could face another warmer-than-normal winter on the heels of a record-breaking season last year.

The harsh Winter of 1946–47 in the United Kingdom

The winter of 1946–1947 was a harsh European winter noted for its effects in the United Kingdom, where it was the coldest winter in three centuries.

It caused severe hardships in terms of the economy, and living conditions, and gave the Conservative Party leverage to attack the Labour Party in power. There were massive disruptions of the energy supply for homes, offices and factories. Animal herds froze or starved to death. No one could keep warm, and many businesses shut down temporarily. When warm weather returned, the ice thawed and flooding was severe for most low-lying areas.

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Beginning on 21 January 1947, the UK experienced several cold spells that brought large drifts of snow to the country, blocking roads and railways. It was harder and harder to bring coal to the electric power stations. Many had to shut down, forcing severe restrictions to cut power consumption, including restricting domestic electricity to 19 hours per day and cutting industrial supplies completely.

In addition, radio broadcasts were limited, television services were suspended, some magazines were ordered to stop being published and newspapers were cut in size. These measures badly affected public morale and turned the Minister of Fuel and Power, Emanuel Shinwell, into a scapegoat; he received death threats and had to be placed under police guard. Towards the end of February there were also fears of a food shortage as supplies were cut off and vegetables were frozen into the ground.

Mid-March brought warmer air to the country which thawed the snow lying on the ground. This snowmelt ran off the frozen ground straight into rivers and caused widespread flooding. More than 100,000 properties were affected and the British Army and foreign aid agencies were forced to provide humanitarian aid.

With the cold weather over and the ground thawing there were no further weather problems. The winter had severe effects on British industries, causing the loss of around 10 per cent of the year’s industrial production, 10 to 20 per cent of cereal and potato crops and a quarter of sheep stocks. The ruling Labour Party began to lose popularity, which led to their losing many seats to the Conservative Party in the 1950 election. That winter is also cited as a factor in the devaluation of the pound from $4.03 to $2.80, Britain’s decline from superpower status and the introduction of the Marshall Plan to aid war-torn Europe. The effects on the rest of Europe were also severe, with 150 deaths from cold and famine in Berlin, civil disorder in the Netherlands and business closures in the Republic of Ireland.

The deadly US Snowfall of 2016!

From January 22 through 24, 2016, a major blizzard produced up to 3 ft (91 cm) of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States.

Evolving from a shortwave trough, the system consolidated into a defined low-pressure area on January 21 over Texas. Regarding it as a “potentially historic blizzard”, meteorologists indicated the storm could produce more than 2 ft (61 cm) of snow across a wide swath of the Mid-Atlantic region and could “paralyze the eastern third of the nation”. Winter weather expert Paul Kocin described the blizzard as “kind of a top-10 snowstorm”.

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On January 20–22, the governors of eleven states and the mayor of Washington, D.C. declared a state of emergency in anticipation of significant snowfall and blizzard conditions. Approximately 103 million people were affected by the storm, with 33 million people under blizzard warnings. More than 13,000 flights were cancelled in relation to the storm, with effects rippling internationally.

Thousands of National Guardsmen were placed on standby and states deployed millions of gallons of brine and thousands of tons of road salt to lessen the storm’s effect on roadways. A travel ban was instituted for New York City and Newark, New Jersey for January 23–24. The storm was given various unofficial names, including Winter Storm Jonas and Snowzilla.

Seven states observed snowfall in excess of 30 in (76 cm), with accumulations peaking at 66 in (170 cm) on Mount Mitchell, North Carolina. Ice- and snow-covered roads led to hundreds of accidents across the affected region, several of which resulted in deaths and injuries. At least 55 people were killed in storm-related incidents: 12 in Virginia, 9 in Pennsylvania, 6 in New Jersey, 6 in New York, 6 in North Carolina, 4 in South Carolina, 3 in Maryland, 3 in Washington, D.C., 1 in Arkansas, 1 in Delaware, 1 in Georgia, 1 in Kentucky, 1 in Massachusetts, and 1 in Ohio.

Total economic losses are estimated between $500 million and $3 billion. The storm ranked as a Category 5 “extreme” event for the Northeast on the Regional Snowfall Index, and a Category 4 for the Southeast. It is the most recent winter storm to rank as a Category 5, and the first to do so since the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard.

Scientists give their view on the severe winter of 2009/10

Scientists have shown that a severe snowfall in North America and Northern Europe in the winter of 2009-10 was caused by a rare, once-in-a-century, collision of two weather systems.

They concluded the harsh winter and heavy snow was an example of hard to predict weather events, not a change in climate.

They analysed historical snow records.

The research was published in Geophysical Research Letters.

In the winter of 2009-10 much of Northern Europe experienced heavy snow and temperatures were at the lowest they had been for nearly 30 years. At the same time, record snowfall hit Washington DC and other parts of America’s “Mid-Atlantic states”.

Some news reports took the extreme cold weather as evidence against climate change.

By analysing 60 years of snowfall measurements and satellite data, researchers concluded the anomalous weather conditions were caused by an unusual combination of an El Nino event and the rare occurrence of a strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

El Nino events result from a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean coupled with changes in the atmosphere. El Ninos move storm systems in the Northern Hemisphere towards the equator. They occur every few years and can be predicted up to a few seasons in advance.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is climatic phenomenon resulting from shifts in atmospheric pressure between two regions above the North Atlantic Ocean. Large changes can only be forecast a week or two weeks in advance.

When the NAO enters a strongly negative phase, cold air repeatedly comes down from the Arctic. This affects eastern North America, and Western Europe.

Satellite image showing snow-covered United Kingdom in January 2010
Image captionSnow that covered most of the UK was caused by a rare weather system bringing down cold air from the Arctic

Richard Seager, a meteorologist with the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in the US, is one of the lead authors of the paper.

“The NAO was probably as negative as it’s ever been in the instrumental record, which goes back to the early 1800s. This was a once-in-a-century type of event,” he told BBC News.

It was this combined with the El Nino event that caused the severe snowfall in North America.

“The NAO on its own doesn’t cause much precipitation in America. It just makes it cold. The El Nino makes the US wetter than normal so combined with the NAO it caused the precipitation in America to fall as snow,” he told BBC News.

The researchers also believe it is unlikely this combination will occur in the near future. Data from tree rings have shown that these same conditions caused by the same combination of weather systems happened over 200 years ago in the winter of 1783-84 in Northern Europe and North America.

Many people have concluded the extreme winter in 1783-84 was caused by the eruption of an Icelandic volcano. But the researchers believe it was caused by the same combination of weather events that caused last year’s harsh winter.

Richard Seager also believes the research is a counter to suggestions that the cold winter is evidence against climate change.

“Weather will continue to be weather. You have to average over a lot of weather to get the climate trends. There doesn’t seem to be any need to evoke anything else other than that,” he told BBC News.