Many reading this will probably be thinking, 5.4c hotter, Bring it on!
As we all know the UK is not the first place you think of when summery weather is what you are after with many of us heading to the Mediterranean to get that glorious sunshine.
With that in mind the prospect of saving a few quid and taking a sunshine holiday here in the UK may be a welcome prospect.
However whilst it might sound good the risks it would bring could cause more harm than good with a rise in Heat strokes for example especially for those most vulnerable.
Extreme heat during summer will also lead to Forest/Grass fires and a rise in the number of severe thunderstorms. These severe thunderstorms will result in an increased chance of major flash floods, Severe hail and damaging winds.
As for the cooler side of the year an increase in Sea levels will put homes and businesses at risk of flooding particularly during wet stormy weather with sea levels potentially rising over 1 metre!
Despite all the warnings the Met Office report does state that this would be a worse case scenario by the year 2070 and should the world reduce harmfull emissions the temperature rises expected are likely to be around 2c by 2100.
There back, Thunder, Hail, Heavy rain, The kitchen sink. Saturday will be one of those.
Starting in Wales & the South West, moving Eastwards thundery showers will affect many areas pushing across to East Anglia and the South East by mid to late afternoon.
No organised thunderstorms are expected but isolated cells will produce lightning at times with many areas at risk of seeing one or two.
following on and the main focus will be just how cold things turn. Tomorrow evening will see temperatures tumble down to 0-2c in the Scottish highlands with many of us seeing single digit figures.
Sunday will be the best day of the weekend with dry and occasionally sunny skies. Heck temperatures could even reach an astonishing 23c is the South East!
A surge of hot air will lift temperatures close to or above 40°C, 104°F very widely across popular holiday destinations in the Med next week. Eastern Spain, Ibiza, Majorca, Italy, southern France and Alpine regions will roast over the next few days as temperatures climb to as high as 10-15C above average.
Widely temperatures of 40C are expected across Mediterranean throughout virtually the whole of next week
People in the area are advised to stay cool and out of the sun during peak heat hours (11:30 – 4:30) and drink an adequate amount of water.
The forecast temperatures of 40-45°C, are around 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above what you would expect, and although the 30°C is still hot, this heatwave is exceptional compared to average. Signs are that this heatwave could last as long as 10 days! Stay safe!
Forecast from: http://www.veryweather.co.uk
Today has started off reasonably well however as the day progresses the number of showers and the intensity of those is set to increase.
By around 3pm most of the country will be at risk of Thundery downpours which will see Lightning, hail and flash flooding as all potential hazards.
As ever not everyone will catch a shower however given the number expected you will do well to stay dry completely.
In the worst hit areas regular lightning along with hail and torrential downpours will make today one for staying indoors.
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The weather for the UK is currently summed up by one word. ‘Changeable’.
But will that continue or will we join many southern parts of Europe that are seeing extremely hot temperatures?
Well to find the answer we have to look at the outputs the models are showing and weighing up the likelihood of one outcome or another.
Currently there is a tendency to bring low pressure in from the west and set up shop to the North West of Northern Ireland.
This has the net result of allowing a fairly mobile pattern to be the main influence of our weather bringing ‘Changeable’ Weather.
However secondary areas of low pressure are hinted at by the models setting up further south allowing a straight Southerly wind flow bringing that very hot air with it.
As you can from the image above the hot air is expected to be within touching distance as we head towards August.
The difficult part is to establish how far south any secondary low will head and can it stay far enough to our south west to draw up that hot feed of air.
The latest output shows the secondary low pushing east to quickly and thus bringing cooler air across the UK. The reason this occurs is due to the lack of a strong area of high pressure over France/Germany area. At this range however it is not unusual to see the model outputs under estimating the strength of high pressure and hitting the default mode and pushing the entire system through very quickly.
As we head nearer to the time we will be keeping a close on any upgrades with regards to the strength of the high over Europe to see if we can tap in to that summer weather once again.
For now though. One word. Changeable.
Saturday has seen the UK faced with downpours over much of us as low pressure dominates.
After what has been such a promising start to the UK things have finally turned to a more typical UK summer.
Today we have seen the occasional thunderstorm, strong winds and numerous downpours.
Currently there is a thunderstorm in the North West and the forecast is for more to break out over the next few hours.
The weekend is here but the weather does not look like improving.
Friday has seen an area of low pressure bring a large band of heavy rain which has spread from west to east associated with some very strong winds.
The weekend fails to improve as low pressure circles over us bringing miserable weather for most.
Heavy showers some of which will be thundery look set to be widespread throughout the day Saturday followed by more of the same on Sunday.
So with that in mind perhaps this is the weekend to see what fun can be had indoors.
Another spell of severe weather is expected for those in the South West, Wales and the West Midlands on Friday with a large amount of rain and winds of 60mph or more!
The UK Met Office have earlier released a warning which reads:
Between 05:00 Fri 21st and 19:00 Fri 21st
A brief spell of heavy rain and strong winds could lead to difficult travel conditions, as the summer holiday season starts for some. Standing water and spray may make journeys longer, and could lead to minor surface water flooding. Winds could be sufficiently strong to cause some bridge restrictions, and bring down branches from trees. Conditions could also be hazardous for those engaged in outdoor activities.
Chief Forecaster’s assessment
Winds will increase to bring gusts of around 40 mph inland and 50 mph on coasts for a period of a couple of hours as a squally band of rain approaches. Locally gusts could be 10 mph or so stronger, especially on headlands. After a brief spell of intense rain, winds will decrease – this happening during the morning over Cornwall but not till evening in the east of the area. Around 10-20 mm of rain will fall in a short time.
Not for the first time this summer hot weather looks set to be pulled up from Spain through France and to our shores.
This looks like seeing the highest temperatures reaching a peak by the middle of next week and with it a high chance of some explosive thunderstorms.
The areas at risk at such range is a large one and of course we will pin things down as we near the time but as things stand Wales, The Midlands & northern parts of England look at the highest risk.
After what was a washout yesterday with some much needed rain for the gardens the sunshine is set to make a return.
So far this summer we have already had some fantastic conditions with 30c reached 5 days consecutively back in June.
Now as the weekend approaches the temperatures are on the rise with 26-28c possible on both Saturday & Sunday in the South East of England.
A temporary cool down during the early part of next week looks likely before a second wave on hot weather returns with temperatures nudging to around 30c once again.
As often is the case will bring with it the risk of further thunderstorms like those experienced last thursday across parts of England.
How far North and West the warmth will spread is still not certain as the models are proving inconclusive currently.
Going forward High pressure looks set to be over or very close to the UK for long periods of time and could see warm sunny weather throughout the kids school holidays.
This summer is certainly shaping up how we were expecting back in May BBQ Summer Expected
So get out there and enjoy it.
We will have more on any possible Thunderstorms at the weekend.