The U.S is on the eve of another major winter storm. This one named Bruce is expected to bring severe conditions across a number of states with upto 12″ of snow and 2″ of rain leading to a high risk of flooding.
As we go into the early hours of Sunday snowfall will begin to intensify for Nabraska, Northern Kansas before moving into Iowa later on.
Storm Bruce will then advance North through Sunday evening and into Monday affecting northern Missouri, the far north of Illinois (Chicago 2-4″), the far South of Wisconsin and eventually Michigan during Monday.
The storm will then rotate and deliver heavy blowing snow for North Eastern areas of New York state, Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and parts of Maine on Tuesday with a risk of huge snowdrifts given the considerable wind speeds expected.
Thanksgiving is finally here and its a day of good food and family get togethers. However, Whilst the Traditional turkey dinner may be piping hot the temperature outside wont be so toasty.
A bitterly cold Arctic blast has swept into the U.S with the North Eastern states feeling the full effects today. Cities of Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington could all see the coldest Thanksgiving in nearly a century with temperatures at or below 32f.
Adding to the bitter conditions will be the strength of the wind making the real feel minus 5 to minus 10!
Fortunately for those that dont enjoy the cold the temperatures will be on the rise by the weekend with a return to near normal values.
The new week is almost upon on us and with it a spell of significant and disruptive snow for some in the U.S with as much as 12″ falling.
Heavy snow will fall from around midday today for Denver and much of Colorado before spreading into Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma later on in the day.
The largest falls will spread from Denver down to Pueblo and South East to Amarillo with many areas hit by 3″ minimum and up to 12″ in the worst hit areas, Some of which will experience whiteout conditions.
Many of these areas will then see an exceptionally cold night with temperatures 20-30 degrees below the expected normal for November.
The band of snow will progress North East over the course of Monday and Tuesday bringing further significant accumulations for parts of New York State, Vermont and Maine before affecting Montreal and Quebec City in Canada.
Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East.
Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.
The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee.
At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls.
We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of.
NOAA’s Climate prediction centre announce a 75% chance of an El Nino winter this year and whilst it is not expected to be the strongest ever seen it will still effect the weather we see.
In summary El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. It is known to trigger intense weather patterns across the world.
Typically El nino winters will lead to colder weather towards the Gulf states of the U.S whilst being milder than usual in the North West of the country. Higher than usual precipitation can tend to give way to potentially record breaking snowfalls later in the season.
For the UK and the North West of Europe El Nino winters tend to be colder than average which will of course increase the likelihood of snowfall events. Whilst individual snowfall events look likely this winter they will almost certainly be interspersed between milder spells due to the temperate climate of the UK. So those hoping them headlines of ‘4 months of crippling snow’ would be true are likely to be dissapointed.
Other factors to consider for the UK also point to a colder winter:
At present the current solar cycle is the 24th. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 in February 1906.
2018 is also running close to the lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic ever for this time of year. This increase in fresh water has been linked with a slow down in the Gulf stream and an increase in Northern Latitude blocking.
Were still over two weeks from Haloween, but it’s starting to feel like Christmas in the Rockies as snow is moving through Colorado, western Kansas and parts of northern New Mexico on Sunday.
Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings span across eight states through early Monday in anticipation of potentially heavy snowfall and blowing snow.
Snow is falling across many parts of the Rockies and Plains on Sunday morning. The snow is the result of a strong cold front that will eventually reach as far south as the Gulf
Generally, 2 to 4 inches of snow can be expected across portions of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas and New Mexico through Monday. The highest accumulations will be seen at the higher altitudes. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains and the summit of Pikes Peak in Colorado could see up to 16 INCHES of snow. Strong winds will also create whiteout conditions at various times throughout the day!
WEATHER experts are warning British & American citizens this week that the up-and-coming winter season may actually get cold and even wet at times, all depending on the temperature and rainfall amounts.
Forecasters said the change will even affect some trees, which will lose their leaves over the coming months.
Explaining the unusual phenomenon, meteorologist Martin Byrne warned that December, January & February will probably be colder than the rest of the months in the year, and advised people to wear warmer clothes than they would in spring and summer.
“I would advise everyone in the country to buy a hat, jacket and a pair of gloves in preparation for this sudden change in climate,” he said. “These items of clothing can be purchased in any good clothes shop, and will protect you from the cold air. If you don’t have any form of heating in your home, I’d advise you to get some quick. Note: you cannot buy jumpers or jackets for houses, as they don’t make them that size.”
Along with the cold, darkness is also expected, with light dissipating earlier in the evening than in previous months.
“Motorists will have to turn their lights on to drive in the dark,” Byrne explained, demonstrating with a torch and making ‘vroom vroom’ noises while steering an imaginary wheel. “It could also rain in the dark too, so make sure your car has windscreen wipers,” he added, now moving his head side-to-side.
The winter weather is expected to last right up to January, and even Febuary, before getting slightly warmer in time for spring, which is a whole other ball game altogether.
The Farmer’s Almanac have published their outlook on the winter 2018/19 and the snow/cold lovers amongst you will be very happy.
Against the grain of what the NOAA predicted they infact expect a Severe winter with many Cold & snowy periods.
The NOAA expects a typical El Nino weather pattern thus leading to a generally warmer than average winter, however the Farmer’s Almanac have now thrown a completely different scenario into the mix.
COLD WINTER AHEAD!
So just how cold will it be? According to the Farmers Almanac the real teeth-chattering arrives mid-February especially in the following zones:Northeast/New England, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southeast (yes, even the Southeast will be in the chill zone!).
The Farmers’ Almanac, which bases its amazingly-accurate long-range forecast on a mathematical and astronomical formula developed in 1818, is also predicting above-normal precipitation (lots of snow!) for the Great Lakes states, Midwest, and central and northern New England, with the majority of it falling in January and February.