Will it be a white Christmas?

So with Christmas coming up just next month we thought we would answer the question.

Well sort of…

With far to much time to accurately give a forecast we will look at historic data to show the likelihood of such event.

Many of you may know that statistically in the UK the chance of a white Christmas is less than a white Easter so lets take a look at what chance there is for where ever you are…

UK Christmas Probability

For those of you in the United States wondering the exact same question…

U.S White Christmas Probability. Credit: WeatherNation

The UK & US set to face early blast of Wintry weather with HEAVY snowfalls!

Ok before we start this wont affect every single part of the UK and likewise the same goes for the US, sorry Florida.

But lets take a look at the facts, The UK has thus far experienced an october which has seen repeated attempts at a blocking pattern for the mid Atlantic which if becomes sustained will allow a strong Notherly flow to take hold. Currently we have seen the attempts end up being shunted east with the UK left with a glancing blow but should this set up repeat through out winter it will almost certainly result in at least 2 or 3 significant cold spells.

Further to our East the march of snow across Siberia, Russia and in towards Scandinavia has been substantial. It is widely considered that the more snow on the ground in these areas helps to maintain a Northern latitude blocking pattern. This alone doesn’t guarantee the UK snow but it helps. We then have the fact we have low solar activity & LA NINA taking a strong hold which often sees a weakening of the jet stream.

 

The combination of these factors are expected to increase the likelihood of an early start to winter for the UK with model outputs already showing snowfall for Scotland, NI & Northwest England around the second week of November. Of course pinpointing the detail at this range is to far to call but its one we will keep a close eye on.

As we look over the pond to the US we see a massive increase in snow cover north of the border in Canada the likes of which bode very well for the coming winter.

As with the UK a LA NINA winter will bring with it increased snow fall as the Polar jet stream and Pacific jet streams interact, The polar bringing the cold temperatures whilst the Pacific brings the moisture.

Also like the UK the second week of November looks to herald potential for first Heavy snowfalls with the states of  Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Montana, North/South Dakota, Nabraska & Kansas all in the potential firing line.

Hurricane Nate could make landfall as a Cat 3 Hurricane as New Orleans evacuates!

Located over the Southern Gulf of Mexico, Nate continues to strengthen as it barrels towards the Northern Gulf Coast of the U.S.

After being upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane at 10pm CDT, Nate has continued to gradually strengthen and currently now has max winds of 80mph, with higher gusts.

Nate is likely to continue strengthening over the next 24-30hrs while it remains in a favorable low shear, moisture-rich, and thermodynamic environment.

The official NHC forecast brings Nate onshore early Sunday morning near SE LA as an 85mph CAT 1 hurricane. I will note, however, that the SHIPS model does indicate a 50/50 chance of Rapid Intensification (RI) occurring within 24hrs, a 30knot + increase in winds.

Therefore, I would prepare for a CAT 2 or 3 hurricane. This hurricane is likely to be much stronger than originally forecasted at the time of landfall.

In addition, Nate is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding, damaging hurricane force winds, isolated tornadoes (mainly North and East of the center), and dangerous storm surge.

Due to Nate’s fast forward speed, the threat of flooding has been greatly reduced, however, it still remains a threat to life and property.

In preparation of these expected impacts, local NWS Officials have issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, as well as Storm Surge Warnings from SE LA eastward to the FL Panhandle.

These impacts are expected to arrive in the warning area by Saturday evening.

It is also important to remember that impacts from this hurricane can and will be felt well away from the center. I urge all local residents to complete preparations and/or evacuations by early Saturday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba

Snow showers intensifying for parts of the UK…

As we go through today the intensity and distribution of Snow showers will increase considerably.

Over the last day or two the main bulk of snowfall albeit light has been restricted to Scotland and the eastern fringes of England with only some of us seeing the odd flurry elsewhere.

Throughout today and into the weekend however snowfall is likely to become more widespread.

Unfortunately we are not expecting widespread heavy snowfall with only favoured areas (Those that find themselves in the heaviest showers which will be hit and miss) and those with height seeing the snow settle.

Across the pond A nor’easter dumped nearly a foot of snow on New York City with bitterly cold temperatures expected to continue.

The snow has now stopped falling in the city, but residents should watch for falling ice from buildings and bridges as temperatures continue to drop.

As of 5 p.m yesterday, the National Weather Service reported 10 inches of snow at LaGuardia, 8.3 inches at JFK and 9.5 inches at Central Park.

Now if only the UK could manage that so we can dust of the old sledge!

Arctic Outbreak to bring FREEZING temperatures on a widespread scale through the U.S!

The record warmth that much of the U.S. experienced this fall will just be a distant memory next week. A change is coming, courtesy of the first arctic blast of the season, arriving just in time for the beginning of meteorological winter.

Many cities from the East to the Pacific Northwest saw temperatures this fall rank in the top five warmest, and November 2016 was one of the three warmest Novembers on record for locations from the Midwest and Plains to the West Coast. A few cities in the Midwest even set records for latest first freeze.

As we head into early December, a pattern change is finally expected to allow arctic air to spill southward. Below is a look at where the coldest temperatures are currently located.

Current Temperatures

Current Temperatures

This change to colder temperatures will begin to evolve late this weekend and into next week.

A southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada into the western U.S., and will then slide eastward as the week progresses. High pressure at the surface will then dive southward, allowing arctic air to spread into parts of the Lower 48.

Cold Setup

This will be the first arctic air mass of the season for the U.S., just in time to start December.

How Cold Will It Get, and When?

The coldest temperatures of the season so far are expected to arrive next week. Big temperature drops are ahead, with highs and lows dropping 20 to 30 degrees.

These very cold conditions will first be felt in the northern Rockies on Monday and will spread through much of the West and into portions of the northern and central Plains by Tuesday.

(FORECAST: Great Falls, Montana | Salt Lake City | Denver | Albuquerque, New Mexico) – Weather.com

The first sub-zero temperatures of the season for some locations are expected Tuesday through Thursday mornings from the Rockies to the northern Plains.

Forecast Morning Lows

Forecast Morning Lows

High and low temperatures will be as much as 30 degrees colder than average. This translates to high temperatures below freezing for much of the West and into the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest. In fact, highs will struggle to reach double digits midweek in parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

Even with these very cold temperatures, widespread record lows are not expected.

(FORECAST: Bismarck, North Dakota | Omaha, Nebraska | Chicago | St. Louis) – weather.com

It will be windy as well, which will make it feel even colder than what the thermometer reads, resulting in brutal wind chills.

In addition, snow will accompany the cold temperatures, but it is too early to determine exactly where, when and how much snow will fall yet.

Forecast Highs Compared To Average

Forecast Highs Compared To Average

Arctic air will continue to plunge through the Plains and into the Midwest midweek. Above-average temperatures will be replaced with below-average readings. Highs will drop from the 40s to the 20s for much of the Midwest.

Late in the week, the colder conditions will reach the East Coast.

(FORECAST: New York | Washington, D.C. | Atlanta | Orlando) – weather.com

At this time, it appears that temperatures will not be as cold for the East as for the West and Plains. However, it will feel more like winter.

Next Week's Forecast

Next Week’s Forecast

The first freeze of the season may arrive for New York and Atlanta by next weekend, as lows will dip into the 20s and 30s.

High temperatures will drop from the mid-40s to the low to mid-30s for much of the Northeast, and many areas of the South will see highs in the 50s and 60s be replaced with highs only in the 40s.

The chilly conditions will reach all the way to Florida. Temperatures in central Florida will only reach the 60s by late week, compared to 80s early in the week.

More heavy snow for the states throughout this week!

More Wintry Weather Headed For Rockies, Upper Midwest and Northeast through Thanksgiving Week.

System #1: Through Thanksgiving Day

Tuesday

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday’s Forecast

Snow is expected from eastern North Dakota to central/northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This will spread across northern Wisconsin into parts of northern Michigan by Tuesday night.

Just south of this snow, a mix of rain, freezing rain or wet snow may impact areas from eastern South Dakota to southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.

Snow will also linger in parts of the central Rockies, adding to the fresh snowfall in ski resorts across parts of Colorado and Wyoming, just in time for those spending their Thanksgiving holiday there.

Wednesday/Thursday

Wednesday's Forecast

Wednesday’s Forecast

Wet snow will persist Wednesday from Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Lower Michigan. Mainly rain is expected from the southern Great Lakes southward.

Wednesday night, rain and snow showers will push eastward into parts of the interior Northeast, possibly as far east as western New England by early Thanksgiving morning.

Thursday's Forecast

Thursday’s Forecast

By Thanksgiving Day, any remaining snow from this first system will be rather patchy and light from Upper Michigan to the interior Northeast and northern New England. It’s also possible that southeastern New England may see some light snow or freezing drizzle early in the morning before changing to light rain.

As mentioned before, the snowfall from this system won’t be as heavy or widespread as we saw with Winter Storm Argos.

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall Forecast

The best chance for moderate accumulations of up to a half foot or so is from eastern Minnesota into northern and central Wisconsin.

Generally lighter accumulations are possible elsewhere in the upper Midwest and interior Northeast from “system number one.”

System #2: Thanksgiving Day Through Saturday

A second system will follow immediately in the first’s track in this busy, active weather pattern. It’s not expected to be a major system by any means, but will deposit more snow in some areas. Here is the general timing/impact of this system.

  • Thanksgiving Day: Light snow in parts of the northern Plains, heads into the Upper Midwest in the evening.
  • Friday: Some light, wet snow or rain will travel through the Great Lakes into northern New York and northern New England.
  • Saturday: Lingering rain/snow showers are possible in the interior Northeast. Some potential for more significant snow in parts of northern New England.

First Major Snowstorm to hit with fall totals of 1-2 FEET!

Minnesota snow lovers may get an inexplicable urge to ski Roseau by Saturday. Test out the trails near Thief River Falls?

Some models are printing out 1-2 FEET of snow for the Red River Valley. Residents of the Dakotas and the mountains of Wyoming and Montana may also get a chance to romp in the snow by late week. You remember snow, right?

Deep breaths. Windblown rain ends as wet snow late Friday and Friday night as a major, full-latitude trough of low pressure spins up an intense storm capable of 20-50 mph winds. This cyclone will be a subtle (yet blunt) reminder that we’re roughly 2 weeks away from “Meteorological Winter”, which runs from December 1 to March 1; historically the coldest 90 days of the year.

Relatively mild weather continues this week but as jet stream wind buckle a major storm tracks across the Plains, with rain changing to snow from west to  east during the day Friday.

GFS differs from the “Euro” (ECMWF) in terms of which areas may see the heaviest snow. This far out that’s not unusual. If you’re traveling across the northern tier states from Montana to Minnesota you want to pay attention to the  latest forecasts.

A transfusion of colder air will have much of America reaching for heavy jackets and coats (remember those?) by the weekend, but next week looks relatively quiet and storm-free.


GFS Solution: Red River Valley Snow Blitz

NOAA’s model pulls a  few flurries across central and southern Minnesota, with the heaviest snows (1-2 feet) falling on the Red River Valley. Source: WeatherBell.


Arctic Blast of cold air to bring Snow to parts of northeastern US this weekend!

The coldest air of the season so far is set to dive into the northeastern United States this weekend.

A cold front will dive southward on Friday, causing temperatures behind it to plummet well below normal for the weekend.

“A brisk northwest wind will bring an early December-like chill to the Northeast this weekend,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido said.

High temperatures from New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., will be around 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for mid-November. The strong northwest winds will make it feel far colder.

Saturday will be the coldest day of the weekend.

Warm clothing will be required for any outdoor activities on Friday night into Saturday as AccuWeather Realfeel® Temperatures will be in the 30s from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and in the 20s from New York City to Boston.

There will be a winter chill for Friday and Saturday night sporting events across the region.

In interior portions of the Northeast, Realfeel® Temperatures will fall into the teens during Saturday morning.

The cold air moving over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes will produce persistent cloud cover and areas of rain and snow to the southeast.

“This setup will be conducive for lake-effect rain and snow showers,”

During Friday night, light rain will change to all snow, even at lower elevations away from the immediate lakeshore, as temperatures fall below freezing, bringing a coating to areas that have the most persistent snow showers.

While snow showers will initially melt on area roadways during Friday night, slick spots may develop once temperatures fall below freezing.

Snow showers will then mix or change over to rain showers during Saturday afternoon across the lower elevations of Pennsylvania and New York state as temperatures rise above freezing. Little or no accumulation is expected.

“In the higher elevations of Pennsylvania and New York state, precipitation may stay in the form of snow all day Saturday,” Vido said.

Snow showers will also stretch into northern New England. A few flurries may even approach the I-95 corridor. Enough snow may fall to shovel, especially across the Catskills, Adirondacks and White and Green Mountains by Saturday night.

Temperatures will recover a bit on Sunday afternoon as high pressure pushes the brunt of the cold away, along with the clouds and wind. However, highs will still be below average.

The Greatest 24-Hour Snowfalls in the USA

Snow can pile up several feet in a day’s time when conditions are ripe in many U.S. states.
In fact, 48 of 50 states have received more than a foot of snow during a single 24-hour period, according to data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Of those 50 states, 32 of them – mostly in the West, Midwest and Northeast – have had snowfalls of 30 inches or more in 24 hours.

During those extreme situations, snowfall rates are often an inch or more per hour. Thundersnow also sometimes occurs, an indication of unstable air and strong upward motion in the atmosphere, resulting in heavy snow.

States With Greatest 24-Hour Snowfall Records

Colorado leads the pack with the most extreme 24-hour snowfall record in the Lower 48 states.

If you were 6 feet tall and standing outside for 24 hours in Silver Lake, Colorado, April 14-15, 1921, you would’ve been buried by snow from head to toe. That location saw 6.3 feet (75.8 inches) of snow high in the Rockies at an elevation of 10,220 feet.

One location in Alaska, however, takes the crown for all 50 states.

Tucked away in the mountains northeast of Valdez, Alaska, is Mile 47 Camp, which was buried by 78 inches of snow in the 24 hours ending Feb. 9, 1963. Here, winter storms in the Gulf of Alaska send moisture from the Pacific into the mountainous terrain, making it an ideal spot for incredible snowfall totals.

Three other states have had 24-hour snowfalls exceeding 50 inches, and much like the top two locations, mountainous terrain also played a role in squeezing out those extreme totals.

Those states are California (67 inches in the Sierra Nevada), Washington (65 inches in the Cascades) and South Dakota (52 inches in the Black Hills).

Recent 24-Hour Snowfall Records Broken

Five U.S. states have set new 24-hour snowfall records during the past 10 years.

Connecticut is the most recent state to rewrite the record books when a location near Ansonia saw 36 inches Feb. 8-9, 2013. That new benchmark for the state was set during Winter Storm Nemo, which also hammered several other New England states with more than a foot of snow.

About two years earlier, Oklahoma set a new 24-hour snowfall record when 27 inches piled up in Spavinaw Feb. 9-10, 2011.

A single spring blizzard in March 2009 propelled two states to new 24-hour records. Pratt, Kansas, and Follett, Texas, made state history with 30 inches and 25 inches of snow, respectively, in the 24 hours ending March 28, 2009.

The fifth state to set a new record in the last decade is Nebraska, where 27 inches was measured near Dalton in the 24-hours ending Dec. 21, 2006.

Severe weather pummels two US states

Storms carrying tornadoes, torrential rain and powerful winds damaged homes, deposited a snowplough in a tree, and flooded highways in two US states.

Authorities say a tornado damaged up to 20 homes in Litchfield, north-central Minnesota. Keith Johnson, the mayor of Litchfield, about 112km west of Minneapolis, said there was serious damage, but no one was injured.

“I’ve lived in this town 52 years and I’ve never seen a storm like this in our community,” Johnson said.

Diane Kelbing told KARE-TV that she and her husband raced to their mobile home park shelter when they heard the tornado warning siren.

Tornado2__745913

“Well, the garage is gone, the shed is gone, the snowmobile trailer is gone. We’ve got a snowplough in the tree,” Kelbing said.

Fifty residents were removed from the Hilltop Health Care Center in nearby Watkins after the home lost part of its roof. The American Red Cross said it is assisting the evacuees.

Law enforcement also reported a tornado touchdown around 6.30pm on Monday in Stearns County, Minnesota, according to the National Weather Service.

The storms also washed out sections of highways in northern Wisconsin and closed other roads.

Wisconsin emergency officials said in a news release 33 people were trapped on Michigan Island in Lake Superior. The release didn’t offer any other details but said as of midmorning 20 people had been rescued and rescue efforts were still under way.

The storms also damaged or destroyed 85 boats at Saxon Harbor in Iron County, state emergency officials said.

The Ashland County Sheriff’s Office urged against travel in the county because many local roads were flooded. Sections of US Highway 2 and state Highway 13 south of Highbridge were closed on Tuesday.

washout

The National Weather Service said more flooding was likely in northern Wisconsin, where rivers and creeks will continue to rise over the next two days. Areas around Danbury to Minong, Hayward, Ashland and Hurley are expected to experience the most significant flooding.