There was a time when we had 4 seasons however 2018 has done its best to buck that trend.
Having had the Beast from the East parts 1 and 2 during March the UK quickly went straight into summer with hot weather in April.
This of course went on throughout the summer which was the warmest on record.
These good conditions have also lasted for a large part in Autumn however thats about to change.
Next week we will see an Arctic outbreak spread all the way to the South coast by Friday with a particular risk of snowfall down the western side of Scotland, England and Wales. Whilst no major snowfall is currently expected there could be snow showers in quite a few areas.
We are also at risk of some severe frosts especially in Scotland with temperatures as low as -6c.
We will have further updates on the areas at risk of snow as we get into next week.
The UK has been enjoying a rather mild Autumn so far however it looks as though the UK is about to be plunged straight into winter.
As we go through the next couple of weeks the weather will be dominated by a large area of high pressure sat over the UK bringing fine days and frosty nights.
As we near the end of the month and into early November this high pressure looks set to move towards Scandinavia drawing in an bitterly cold Easterly air flow and of course a risk of heavy Snow once again.
At this stage there is still scope for change however its a weather pattern that could bring significant risks across the whole of the UK as it did earlier in the year. That spell of Easterly winds was responsible for the deaths of 17 people in the UK and 77 across Europe in total.
Despite the risks there is plenty of time for change and therefor there is alot of uncertainty. We will update you as/if the risks increase.
NOAA’s Climate prediction centre announce a 75% chance of an El Nino winter this year and whilst it is not expected to be the strongest ever seen it will still effect the weather we see.
In summary El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. It is known to trigger intense weather patterns across the world.
Typically El nino winters will lead to colder weather towards the Gulf states of the U.S whilst being milder than usual in the North West of the country. Higher than usual precipitation can tend to give way to potentially record breaking snowfalls later in the season.
For the UK and the North West of Europe El Nino winters tend to be colder than average which will of course increase the likelihood of snowfall events. Whilst individual snowfall events look likely this winter they will almost certainly be interspersed between milder spells due to the temperate climate of the UK. So those hoping them headlines of ‘4 months of crippling snow’ would be true are likely to be dissapointed.
Other factors to consider for the UK also point to a colder winter:
At present the current solar cycle is the 24th. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 in February 1906.
2018 is also running close to the lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic ever for this time of year. This increase in fresh water has been linked with a slow down in the Gulf stream and an increase in Northern Latitude blocking.
The ‘experts’ at The Daily Express weather HQ are today warning that due to unforeseen weather patterns, Known to many of us as ‘Seasons’.
We are faced with cooler weather conditions with the potential for stronger winds and an increase in rainfall during December, January and Incredibly February aswell.
The Meteorologists who have just been awarded a degree in complete nonsense say we should be stockpiling food & water as getting to the shops could be near to impossible if Britain gets the expected arctic conditions.
When questioned about the past forecasts of impending Weather ‘CHAOS’ which went as far as to say we would get 100 days of snow and had just 15minutes the Chief General forecaster said “We cant be expected to be 100% accurate all of the time”,
“However new signals from the Global Nonsense System ‘GNS’ used by The Express, (Not to be confused with the far more accurate Global Forecasting System ‘GFS’ used by credible Weather Organisations) insist we have got to be right this year due to low solar output, an increase in fresh water into the North Atlantic and the fact the UK has drifted a cm further north since this time last year”.
Whatever the weather it looks like we are sure to be in for some interesting reading.
WEATHER experts are warning British & American citizens this week that the up-and-coming winter season may actually get cold and even wet at times, all depending on the temperature and rainfall amounts.
Forecasters said the change will even affect some trees, which will lose their leaves over the coming months.
Explaining the unusual phenomenon, meteorologist Martin Byrne warned that December, January & February will probably be colder than the rest of the months in the year, and advised people to wear warmer clothes than they would in spring and summer.
“I would advise everyone in the country to buy a hat, jacket and a pair of gloves in preparation for this sudden change in climate,” he said. “These items of clothing can be purchased in any good clothes shop, and will protect you from the cold air. If you don’t have any form of heating in your home, I’d advise you to get some quick. Note: you cannot buy jumpers or jackets for houses, as they don’t make them that size.”
Along with the cold, darkness is also expected, with light dissipating earlier in the evening than in previous months.
“Motorists will have to turn their lights on to drive in the dark,” Byrne explained, demonstrating with a torch and making ‘vroom vroom’ noises while steering an imaginary wheel. “It could also rain in the dark too, so make sure your car has windscreen wipers,” he added, now moving his head side-to-side.
The winter weather is expected to last right up to January, and even Febuary, before getting slightly warmer in time for spring, which is a whole other ball game altogether.
Straight off the back of Storm Ali the Met Office has now officially named the second storm of the season.
Storm Bronagh is set to hit parts of the British Isles with strong winds and heavy rain of upto 100mm as we go through this evening and into Friday.
Check out the full Met Office warning below…
Between 18:00 Thu 20th and 09:00 Fri 21st
Storm Bronagh brings potential for very strong winds on Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning.
What to expect
Some damage to buildings, such as tiles blown from roofs or through falling trees and branches, could happen. Injuries and danger to life from flying debris are possible
Road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected, with longer journey times and cancellations possible
Some roads and bridges may close
Power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage
Injuries and danger to life could occur from large waves and beach material being thrown onto sea fronts, coastal roads and properties
The warning area, now associated with Storm Bronagh, has been extended to cover more of northern England. The likelihood of medium impacts has also been increased.
Regions and local authorities affected:
East of England
London & South East England
North East England
North West England
South West England
Yorkshire & Humber
An area of strong winds is likely to develop across parts of Wales and southwest England during Thursday evening before spreading further eastwards across England. The strongest winds are then expected to clear into the North Sea early on Friday. Most likely is that we will see gusts of 45-50 mph in a few spots inland as well as more widely around exposed coasts. However, there is a small chance that stronger winds will develop in some areas with 60-65 mph gusts possible, particularly overnight into Friday across eastern England. The strong winds will accompanied by short-lived outbreaks of very heavy rain in places.