Mild November across the UK & Mainland Europe to continue

Much of Europe has had one of the mildest Autumns for many years following on the theme from the hot summer.

And the positive news is that the latest model guidance suggests this pattern is set to continue for the next two to three weeks with a large area of high pressure over Europe pumping mild air from Northern Africa through Spain, France and the UK. 

Of course at this time of year it wont quite be BBQ weather however it will certainly be a welcome spell for those looking to save on the heating bills. 

Unfortunately this will not come as good news to all. Ski resorts across the Alps are reporting nearly no snowfall except at the highest resorts and with opening dates just a few weeks away many are keeping fingers crossed the current pattern will break sooner rather than later. 

Severe winds, Flooding and powercuts to cause chaos as stormy conditions are set to hit Britain!

Stormy weather is set to return to the UK tomorrow as a deep area of low pressure currently situated in the Atlantic crosses the UK.

This storm powered by an invigorated jet stream will lead to treacherous conditions for those out and about particularly during Friday evening rush hour.

Maximum wind speeds could hit 70MPH around the West Coasts of England, Wales & Scotland whilst inland areas will see maximum gusts of 50MPH.

Rainfall will also cause problems with as much as 50mm falling.

The Met Office has released the following yellow warning:

Between 13:00 Fri 9th and 23:59 Fri 9th

A spell of heavy rain and strong winds is expected on Friday.

What to expect

A few homes and businesses flooded.

Spray and flooding on roads will make journey times longer.

Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.

Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.

Some short term loss of power and other services.

Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.

Will it be a white Christmas?

So with Christmas coming up just next month we thought we would answer the question.

Well sort of…

With far to much time to accurately give a forecast we will look at historic data to show the likelihood of such event.

Many of you may know that statistically in the UK the chance of a white Christmas is less than a white Easter so lets take a look at what chance there is for where ever you are…

UK Christmas Probability

For those of you in the United States wondering the exact same question…

U.S White Christmas Probability. Credit: WeatherNation

Hurricane Oscar to impact the UK before a return to bitter cold!

The UK has just had its coldest night of the year with temperatures down to -7.1c in Sennybridge, Wales.

However temperatures are now returning to near normal values and the focus turns towards the South West.

Category 2 Hurricane Oscar is bearing down on the UK with the remnants expected to impact Northern Ireland, North West England and Scotland Friday and Saturday.

This will see some strong wind gusts of over 70MPH along with the potential for flooding as a spell of heavy rain sweeps through.

This will lead on to a rather wet and at times windy week before a potential return to bitterly cold conditions for the middle of November!

Heavy SNOW hits parts of the UK!

Feeling a bit cold out?

Well if its not yet it soon will be as cold air has almost covered the entire the UK this morning with snow showers packing in to Scotland and high ground in England and Wales.

These snow showers will continue in to tomorrow with possible accumulations in excess of 15cms for the Scottish highlands. 

Elsewhere it will be a mixed bag with the potential for Rain, hail, Sleet & snow showers. 

Sunday will see a much drier day along with a widespread frost overnight before a gradual return to milder conditions next week. 

Freezing Northerly to bring Snow showers!

From Thursday this week the UK will be in the grip of its first cold Northerly this side of summer and that will lead to snow.

Whilst wide spread or disruptive snowfall is not expected there will be a risk of a 5-10cms for parts of Scotland particularly in the North and for areas over 1000ft. 

The risk is then extended to Northern Ireland & North Wales on Saturday with snow showers possible almost anywhere. 

By the end of the weekend high pressure moves in killing off any shower activity with a gradual return to near normal temperatures.

However the cold may not be over for long as a potential easterly has been hinted at for the period 6-10th of November by some model outputs.

Thats one we will of course keep an eye on.

Arctic outbreak to bring snowfall across the UK!

There was a time when we had 4 seasons however 2018 has done its best to buck that trend.

Having had the Beast from the East parts 1 and 2 during March the UK quickly went straight into summer with hot weather in April.

This of course went on throughout the summer which was the warmest on record.

These good conditions have also lasted for a large part in Autumn however thats about to change.

Next week we will see an Arctic outbreak spread all the way to the South coast by Friday with a particular risk of snowfall down the western side of Scotland, England and Wales. Whilst no major snowfall is currently expected there could be snow showers in quite a few areas. 

We are also at risk of some severe frosts especially in Scotland with temperatures as low as -6c.

We will have further updates on the areas at risk of snow as we get into next week.

Snow by Bonfire night: Beast from the East may return

The UK has been enjoying a rather mild Autumn so far however it looks as though the UK is about to be plunged straight into winter.

As we go through the next couple of weeks the weather will be dominated by a large area of high pressure sat over the UK bringing fine days and frosty nights.

As we near the end of the month and into early November this high pressure looks set to move towards Scandinavia drawing in an bitterly cold Easterly air flow and of course a risk of heavy Snow once again.

At this stage there is still scope for change however its a weather pattern that could bring significant risks across the whole of the UK as it did earlier in the year. That spell of Easterly winds was responsible for the deaths of 17 people in the UK and 77 across Europe in total.

Despite the risks there is plenty of time for change and therefor there is alot of uncertainty. We will update you as/if the risks increase.

Winter Forecast 2018/19 | El Nino WINTER will bring Severe Snowfall & Freezing conditions!

NOAA’s Climate prediction centre announce a 75% chance of an El Nino winter this year and whilst it is not expected to be the strongest ever seen it will still effect the weather we see.

In summary El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. It is known to trigger intense weather patterns across the world.

Typically El nino winters will lead to colder weather towards the Gulf states of the U.S whilst being milder than usual in the North West of the country. Higher than usual precipitation can tend to give way to potentially record breaking snowfalls later in the season.

For the UK and the North West of Europe El Nino winters tend to be colder than average which will of course increase the likelihood of snowfall events. Whilst individual snowfall events look likely this winter they will almost certainly be interspersed between milder spells due to the temperate climate of the UK.  So those hoping them headlines of ‘4 months of crippling snow’ would be true are likely to be dissapointed. 

Other factors to consider for the UK also point to a colder winter:

At present the current solar cycle is the 24th. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 in February 1906.

2018 is also running close to the lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic ever for this time of year. This increase in fresh water has been linked with a slow down in the Gulf stream and an increase in Northern Latitude blocking.

Major flooding likely as 36 hours of rain is expected for the UK!

The UK is currently experiencing the third named storm of the season, Storm Callum.

Strong winds have been felt across many parts today with Cairngorm Mountain seeing a wind gust of 116MPH earlier today!

Overall gusts of 50-70MPH have been more typical which will continue throughout today.

Whilst this may cause problems in one or two areas the main threat associated with Callum is the rain.

For 24-36hours we will see an almost stationary cold front alligned through Wales, The North West of England and into Scotland.

This will have the potential to drop 100-150mm of rain easily with some models suggesting up to 350mm of rain!

This of course will flow into the rivers and area prone to flooding need to follow all local guidance.