Brutal polar vortex to bring bitter cold & heavy snow to the U.S!

Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East

Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.

The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee.

At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls.

We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of

Will the USA see a bitterly cold winter?

Well for the snow lovers out there the news you have been waiting for is…

Well not good.

NOAA have recently gave their thoughts on the upcoming winter of 2018/19 and with a strong El Nino likely a warmer than average winter is expected.

So what is El Niño?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In layman’s terms, the ENSO cycle is a scientific study of the temperature fluctuations between atmospheric and ocean temperatures in the central Pacific. Of these two phases, La Niña is considered to be the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and El Niño is considered to be the warmer phase. While both phases occur seasonally, historically El Niño is more likely.

The NOAA is predicting a 70% chance of an El Niño pattern winter for the Northern Hemisphere.

When it comes to the winter weather forecast for the 2018-2019 season, the NOAA has reported that there is a 70% chance that we will have an El Niño winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the United States.

What does this mean for early winter?

Based on the early prediction for an El Niño winter, the NOAA has predicted that the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies will all see below average to equal chances of precipitation from October through December. However, Colorado, parts of Utah, and the Southern Rockies are all expected to see above-average precipitation for the start of the season. New England is expected to see average precipitation throughout the start of the winter.

The NOAA is predicting higher than average precipitation throughout the Rockies and Colorado, with lower than average precipitation in the PNW, and average precipitation across New England.

While precipitation is expected to fluctuate across the country, the El Niño prediction calls for warmer than average temperatures across the entire country from October through December.

Winter Weather Forecast 2018 2019

The NOAA is predicting warmer than average temperatures across the entire country to start the season off.

What does this mean for mid-to-late winter?

As winter progresses into January through March, most resorts across the entire country are forecasted to see continued equal to low precipitation averages. However, parts of Alaska and the Southern Rockies are expected to see higher than average precipitation in the second half of the winter.

The NOAA is predicting that many resort areas across the United States will see either equal or less than average precipitation throughout the second half of the winter season.

When it comes to the temperature, the entire country is expected to see warmer than average temps continuing throughout the second half of the season.

Warmer temperature patterns across much of the United States are expected to continue straight through to March.

Can we trust this early forecast?

While predictions for low precipitation averages and warmer temperatures are undoubtedly startling for all of the powder chasers among us, it’s important to remember that this early forecast is just that, an early forecast. When it comes to on-hill conditions, individual storm cycles and short-term predictions are far more likely to accurately forecast conditions than anything months out.

Long story short? It’s far too early to make any definitive call, and while the early predictions don’t look great, there is really no telling what the season will bring. Make sure to check back in the coming months for both the Farmer’s Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac weather forecasts, as we will be updating you on every early season prediction as they become available.

Will the UK get America’s huge SNOWSTORM?

One of the most common comments we see whenever the U.S has severe winter weather is ‘We will get that in a couple of weeks time’.

So is there any truth in this statement?

Well Yes & No.

Weather systems in the Northern hemisphere tend to head eastwards powered along by the jet stream.

This of course means weather systems to the UK’s West (America/Canada area) head in our general direction.

However the Atlantic is a large body of relatively warm water.

This modifies any weather systems as it heads in our direction so what once may have produced Cold/Snowy weather one side of the ocean will result in a spell of general wet & windy weather for us.

(There will be occasions when cold air over the UK prior to such weather systems reaching the UK can result in snowfall however the system itself would not be bringing the cold air.)

That is also presuming the weather system that would have gave snowfall to the U.S heads directly towards the UK.

Many systems will pass to the North or South or even weaken to the point they are no longer recognisable as the storm that they once were.

So unfortunately for anyone who was hoping for a mammoth snow storm in two weeks time im afraid to say dont get your hopes up.

Major Hurricane Maria could hit the Dominican Republic head on with 120MPH+ Winds before heading towards the U.S!

Maria has been named by the National Hurricane Centre as a Hurricane and looks to pose a huge threat to many areas including the United States.

Current forecasts show rapid strengthening of the system as it barrels towards the Dominican Republic.

Other areas in its path include the Leeward Islands, St. Lucia, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, Martinique, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Image: NOAA

At this range the track is still not guaranteed and landfall for the United States is something we cannot say will happen for certain, However it is something to be aware of as the latest model outputs show this to be a possibility.