A threat to life is becoming a real concern as the Heatwave takes a more sinister turn later this week.
The threat will come from numerous aspects of what is becoming the Hottest summer the UK has ever experienced.
The Met Office released an Amber warning yesterday due to the increasing temperatures and advised people not to go out during the midday sun with the risk of heat Exhaustion/stroke being high, Especially for those more vulnerable, The young, Elderly and of course your pets.
The dangers dont end there however, Strengthening southerly winds on Thursday will see an increased risk of larger, Longer lasting wild fires causing chaos for fire crews.
Then comes the third and potentially devastating risk of flash floods.
The North East, The Midlands, East Anglia and the South East are currently the highest risk areas for intense Thunderstorms to break out on Thursday & Friday.
These storms could see large amounts of rainfall in a short space of time. Should these be slow moving the risk of homes and businesses becoming flooded will be high due to the exceptionally dry ground being unable to absorb the water quickly. This threat will be coupled with frequent lightning, Large hail & strong winds, Posing a risk to Homes, Cars and anyone caught outside.
Whilst Thunderstorms could be severe it is worth mentioning at this stage there is still some uncertainty regarding how widespread they will be. Combine that with the likelihood storms will be isolated seeing one will be the exception not the rule.
As we look ahead the forecast shows a continuation of the same theme. Hot Hot, Chance of storms and then some more Hot weather.
As the heat dissipates the thunderstorms take over…
After a few days of hot weather (At least for April) Thunderstorms are now due to hit many parts this evening.
Currently those storms are situated over the channel but given the current predictions the London area is at severe risk of regular lightning strikes later this evening.
As the evening draws on areas further north can expect frequent lightning, This area of storms is expected to head Northwards from the South West then vear North East as it passes the Leeds area.
Storms are expected to be localised so not everywhere will see them, However bare it in mind if your out and about this evening.
As for the next two weeks…
Well its typical British weather. Unfortunately.
Wondered where the summer is? Well look no further than Southern Europe where temperatures are so hot even the sea temperature… Yes the sea water temperature is up to an incredible 30 celcius!
Night temps have been breaking records in a number of places too with over 35c seen in recent nights.
And then there is the daytime temperatures which are not just boiling but are widespread across the region from Turkey through the balkans into Italy the South of France and Spain all hitting highs over 40c. locally we may even see over 45c today.
These hot temps over land have triggered some monster thunderstorms in recent days with 100’s of lightning strikes per minute, Mammoth sized hail, Tornado’s and lots and lots of monsoon like rainfall with more similar storms expected!
Watch Extreme Hail storm in Turkey
Forest fires have also been widespread with many evacuations ordered in various places affecting not only locals but tourists also.
And when cooler weather does move in people close to the coast will still be at risk of huge thunderstorms as the extremely high sea temperatures will likely create severe instability in the atmosphere.
So if you wondered where Summer got to there you have it. But remember if your out in the Heatwave be sure to seek shelter from the sun at regular intervals, Sunscreen a plenty and keep hydrated.
Thunderstorms are already about in one or two areas of the UK & isolated cells will continue to produce lightning strikes this afternoon into this evening.
The biggest concern however is for mainland Europe where storms producing huge rainfall totals, Regular lightning strikes aswell as very large hail are all possible.
We will be keeping a close eye on these storms and will broadcast live later today when things really start to fire up.
Saturday has seen the UK faced with downpours over much of us as low pressure dominates.
After what has been such a promising start to the UK things have finally turned to a more typical UK summer.
Today we have seen the occasional thunderstorm, strong winds and numerous downpours.
Currently there is a thunderstorm in the North West and the forecast is for more to break out over the next few hours.
The weekend is here but the weather does not look like improving.
Friday has seen an area of low pressure bring a large band of heavy rain which has spread from west to east associated with some very strong winds.
The weekend fails to improve as low pressure circles over us bringing miserable weather for most.
Heavy showers some of which will be thundery look set to be widespread throughout the day Saturday followed by more of the same on Sunday.
So with that in mind perhaps this is the weekend to see what fun can be had indoors.
See the latest Met Office Amber weather warning:
‘Between 11:00 Wed 19th and 23:55 Wed 19th
Further, possibly severe, thunderstorms may break out again this afternoon and evening, probably focused over parts of northeast Wales, central and northern England. Some heavy, thundery rain may also spread into parts of southwest Scotland by this evening although the risk of disruption is lower here than further south.
Although some places will miss the thunderstorms, there is a chance of localised sudden flooding of homes, businesses and roads. Frequent lightning and large hail may be additional hazards, the latter bringing potential for disruption to power networks.
This warning has been updated to shrink the south of the yellow area (where the risk of disruption in now reducing) whilst also to extend it further north across northern England and into southwest Scotland. The end time has also been extended a little.’
Tomorrow night will see the UK faced with a severe threat of Thunderstorms.
Back on the 6th of July the UK saw over 11000 strikes however the potential is there for even more strikes over a larger area to catch a storm this time round.
The Risk once again will be from Frequent lightning, Large hail, Flash flooding and strong winds.
As always with thunderstorms, there will be some areas getting battered and others seeing very little.
The main areas for Tuesday evening/night are southern Britain and Wales with the threat moving northwards through the Midlands. There is low confidence about how far west/east the storms will sway however the most severe storms look likely along the south coast tuesday evening and then again later on Wednesday as the storms reach further North/North East.
Aside from the storms the next three days will also see some warm/hot temperatures with 30c possible in the East by Wednesday.
Another day closer and thunderstorms are still on the minds of many forecasters as we head towards next week!
The potential is still there for some considerable storms Tuesday night into Wednesday, So much so that ‘Convective Weather’ have issued the following…
“Day 4 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 Jul 2017 – 05:59 UTC Wed 19 Jul 2017
ISSUED 14:06 UTC Sat 15 Jul 2017
ISSUED BY: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/
Negatively-tilted Atlantic trough will slowly approach from the west on Tuesday – on its forward side, advection of a high WBPT airmass will occur from Biscay/France into southern Britain. This, combined with falling heights aloft, will aid destabilisation of the mid-levels through isentropic lift.
Given the lead time, there will undoubtedly be some uncertainty as to the exact forecast evolution (even on the day of the event, let alone some 4 days in advance!), but a broadbrush approach has been adopted for now to highlight some reasonable consistency amongst various NWP guidance. Upgrades to SLGT and perhaps MDT are likely as confidence improves nearer the time.
Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms will begin to develop on Tuesday afternoon over northern France / Channel Islands / English Channel, and then drift northwards in some fashion to S/SW Britain, continuing N or NE through the evening and overnight across portions of England and Wales, and perhaps the Republic of Ireland also. The exact track, coverage and timing rather uncertain at present, as one would expect. Given the magnitude of CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates, lightning will likely be frequent where thunderstorms occur.”
Currently storms are still likely however should low pressure push further east then the likelihood of storms would decrease.
With this in mind there is still a high level of uncertainty and we encourage people to keep an eye on the forecasts over coming days.
Not for the first time this summer hot weather looks set to be pulled up from Spain through France and to our shores.
This looks like seeing the highest temperatures reaching a peak by the middle of next week and with it a high chance of some explosive thunderstorms.
The areas at risk at such range is a large one and of course we will pin things down as we near the time but as things stand Wales, The Midlands & northern parts of England look at the highest risk.