So usually we hear of a Hurricane or ex Hurricane heading towards our shores and we picture Heavy rain, strong winds etc etc
However Gert is expected to head to the North of the UK and whilst its effects may be felt by those in Scotland it will allow the Azores high to ridge up towards Southern areas bringing fine, Sunny and possibly Hot weather to many in England & Wales.
So when is this fine weather arriving?
Well unusually the timing looks like falling just when most people would like it. Yep the weekend.
Saturday could see temps hit 22-23c with 24-26c on Sunday. It doesn’t end there though, Thanks to the push from Gert the high pressure looks like staying on the scene and the beginning of next week will see temps rise even further with 27-28c being enjoyed by some.
So here’s to Gert and some nice weather. Finally!
So summer seemingly left the UK many moons ago however one model output (The GFS) has been hinting at a significant heatwave from the end of next week.
The big question is will the GFS be correct or has it got its wires crossed.
Currently there is some support to the output being shown however one of the other most trusted model outputs the ECMWF refuses to show such promising charts.
With that in mind and the length of time until such heatwave may or may not start confidence has to be low at around 20%.
The most likely scenario is a watered down outcome with best conditions towards the South East. That in itself may be an improvement on recent weeks.
So until we get some more certainty lets just bask in what the GFS shows for now and have all our fingers, legs and anything else crossed that it comes off…
Temps begin to rise sunday 25-27c possible
Heatwave if full swing by Tuesday with 30c likely hit in one or two areas…
Even by the following Sunday hot temperatures persist with 33-35c as potential highs
The wet weather is well and truly underway with things only set to get worse over the next 3-6hours.
In total as much as 80mm of rain could fall which to put in perspective the average for the entire month is just 48mm in London.
Currently there are 2 flood warnings and 5 flood alerts in place however with much of the rain still yet to fall these numbers are set to rise rapidly.
To keep an eye on the flood warnings in your are make sure you check out the Flood Information Service
Enjoying the typical British summer?
Well things dont look like improving anytime soon with over a months worth of rain set to fall on Wednesday for London and the South East.
In total as much as 60 to 80mm will fall in places with rain pretty much constant from mid morning until around 9pm.
Thursday should bring much brighter prospects, with highs of around 20/21C.
However things are changing again at the end of the week when another band of rain moves in on Friday evening into Saturday.
See the full Met Office forecast below:
Between 00:05 Wed 9th and 23:55 Wed 9th
An area of heavy rain will sink slowly southwards across the east and southeast of England during Wednesday. Some transport routes may be affected by localised flooding leading to longer journey times. In addition, flooding of homes and businesses is possible. The heaviest of the rain should gradually become confined to the extreme southeast of the UK later in the day.
Chief Forecaster’s assessment
An area of showers will spread from the Irish Sea across Wales, and parts of southwest and south England on Tuesday. Whilst many areas will not see the heaviest of these, accumulations of 15-20 mm in an hour are possible along with 30 mm or so in 2 or 3 hours.
So if your in the UK all the talk of how hot it is in Europe probably hasn’t helped gloss over the lack of any heat for this small part of the world over the past few weeks.
The end of Spring and start of Summer actually started well with dry and warm, Sometimes hot conditions. Remember the 5 consecutive days we saw temperatures over 30c?
No me neither. Seems like an age ago now.
Don’t panic just yet though, The first green shoots are starting to appear in the model outputs and into a semi reliable timeframe.
By midweek high pressure looks set to move close to the UK bringing calmer and sunnier weather once again.
Initially temperatures are not expected to hit the heady heights of June but we should see 22-25c once again.
Beyond this high pressure wants to hang on around the UK for sometime so there is every chance if it falls into the right position we can tap into that incredible heatwave the rest of Europe are enjoying/enduring.
Temperatures across the continent are continuing to hit the high 30s & even low to mid 40s this week!
Europe has already seen impressive temperatures this summer with record breaking heat in spain earlier this summer.
As we head into August temps are on the rise once again with Spain, Italy & Greece all sweltering.
Italy Bakes with temperatures nudging the mid 40s by midweek!
Many areas of Spain are in the high 30s!
The most depressing for those in the UK that like hot weather is the chart for France that shows just how close the heat is.
After what was a washout yesterday with some much needed rain for the gardens the sunshine is set to make a return.
So far this summer we have already had some fantastic conditions with 30c reached 5 days consecutively back in June.
Now as the weekend approaches the temperatures are on the rise with 26-28c possible on both Saturday & Sunday in the South East of England.
A temporary cool down during the early part of next week looks likely before a second wave on hot weather returns with temperatures nudging to around 30c once again.
As often is the case will bring with it the risk of further thunderstorms like those experienced last thursday across parts of England.
How far North and West the warmth will spread is still not certain as the models are proving inconclusive currently.
Going forward High pressure looks set to be over or very close to the UK for long periods of time and could see warm sunny weather throughout the kids school holidays.
This summer is certainly shaping up how we were expecting back in May BBQ Summer Expected
So get out there and enjoy it.
We will have more on any possible Thunderstorms at the weekend.
The nicer weather has been with those in the south for a couple of days already with 24/25c over the weekend just gone.
This isn’t the end of the nice weather however and as the week progresses the temperature will increase.
On Tuesday those in the South East will see 25/26c whilst the Majority of England see temperatures between 20 and 22c.
By wednesday the heat increases and for many in England & Wales temperatures will be up to 25/26c with top temperatures in the south of up to 28c.
Thursday follows a similar pattern with regards to temperature but by then the chance of a thunderstorm will increase especially for those along the South coast and to the West of England and Wales.
Friday looks set to be the day to finish work early as temperatures look like pushing through the 30c barrier however the risk of catching a thunderstorm is still there so be prepared if your half way through the BBQ.
As for the weekend and next week, Early indications are for England and Wales to hold on to some nice weather however as you would probably expect the further North you are the lower the temperature and the higher chance of seeing some rain.
As we stated just the other day & back at the start of May, This summer (Touch wood) is shaping up to be a nice one.
38.5c record to be broken this summer?
BBQ Summer increasingly likely
Yes you read that right. The UK is finally set to see its first real spell of hot weather next week with temperatures upto 30c in London by saturday.
The warm weather is expected to begin in earnest with monday seeing top temperatures of up to 25c.
As the week progresses the mercury rises and the whole of the UK will enjoy hot temperatures.
Yes Scotland that includes you. Here we will see temperatures exceeding the 25c marker by Thursday afternoon.
In an unusual twist for the weather the hottest temperatures will be over the course of the weekend with 30c expected in the capital.
So dont worry if your in work all week, There will still be time to fire up the BBQ.
So why is it increasingly likely?
Well over the past 8 months the UK has seen a reduced amount of rainfall due to the ribbon of air high in the atmosphere known as the jet stream.
Usually the UK expects this ribbon of fast moving air to power along storms in the direction of the UK dumping large amounts of rainfall, Last season for example saw 11 named storms however this season we have only had 5.
With the Jetstream weaker it has tended to be distorted frequently allowing high pressure to dominate over or close to the UK.
So whilst that has resulted in fairly mundane weather it has also been dry. During the summer however high pressure being dominant will result in warm/hot sunny days.
So if you want a hot & sunny summer lets hope this trend continues.
The MetOffice is set to release their long range summer forecast in the near future so we will have an update on the likelihood of this then.