Freezing blast from the East set to hit the UK with snow for some!

The UK has enjoyed an incredibly mild spell of late but all is about to change!

The high pressure responsible for the mild weather had been situated near Germany with low pressure in the Atlantic resulting in Southerly winds.

However the weather gods (model outputs) are in agreement this high pressure will migrate towards Scandinavia and leave the UK on the Southern edge. This will mean a spell of Easterly winds.

Now many of you will be aware what Easterly winds are capable of given the Beast from the East parts 1 & 2 during March of this year.

However towards the end of winter cold pooling to the UK’s East is significant compared to this time of year and that will mean a watered down Easterly this time round.

So what should you expect?

The Weather looks set to cool down from next week with daytime temperatures around 4-7c

Overnight there is a risk of frosts for the entire week, Something that has been rare so far this side of summer.

And as for snow? There may be one of two flurries during next week but nothing that we currently expect to cause any problems. 

However…

If the model outputs beyond the next working week prove correct a real snowy, Frosty, Bitterly cold North Easterly could herald the start of winter in a significant way!

Watch this space.

Disruptive SNOWFALL during the next 48 hours expected, dumping upto 12″!

The new week is almost upon on us and with it a spell of significant and disruptive snow for some in the U.S with as much as 12″ falling.

Heavy snow will fall from around midday today for Denver and much of Colorado before spreading into Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma later on in the day.

The largest falls will spread from Denver down to Pueblo and South East to Amarillo with many areas hit by 3″ minimum and up to 12″ in the worst hit areas, Some of which will experience whiteout conditions.

Many of these areas will then see an exceptionally cold night with temperatures 20-30 degrees below the expected normal for November.

Image Credit: Weather.US

The band of snow will progress North East over the course of Monday and Tuesday bringing further significant accumulations for parts of New York State, Vermont and Maine before affecting Montreal and Quebec City in Canada.

Brutal polar vortex to bring bitter cold & heavy snow to the U.S!

Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East

Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.

The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee.

At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls.

We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of

Will it be a white Christmas?

So with Christmas coming up just next month we thought we would answer the question.

Well sort of…

With far to much time to accurately give a forecast we will look at historic data to show the likelihood of such event.

Many of you may know that statistically in the UK the chance of a white Christmas is less than a white Easter so lets take a look at what chance there is for where ever you are…

UK Christmas Probability

For those of you in the United States wondering the exact same question…

U.S White Christmas Probability. Credit: WeatherNation

Early WARNING for Heavy Snow next week!

Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East. 

Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.

The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as  the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee. 

Cold air sweeps south

At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls. 

We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of. 

Heavy SNOW hits parts of the UK!

Feeling a bit cold out?

Well if its not yet it soon will be as cold air has almost covered the entire the UK this morning with snow showers packing in to Scotland and high ground in England and Wales.

These snow showers will continue in to tomorrow with possible accumulations in excess of 15cms for the Scottish highlands. 

Elsewhere it will be a mixed bag with the potential for Rain, hail, Sleet & snow showers. 

Sunday will see a much drier day along with a widespread frost overnight before a gradual return to milder conditions next week. 

Freezing Northerly to bring Snow showers!

From Thursday this week the UK will be in the grip of its first cold Northerly this side of summer and that will lead to snow.

Whilst wide spread or disruptive snowfall is not expected there will be a risk of a 5-10cms for parts of Scotland particularly in the North and for areas over 1000ft. 

The risk is then extended to Northern Ireland & North Wales on Saturday with snow showers possible almost anywhere. 

By the end of the weekend high pressure moves in killing off any shower activity with a gradual return to near normal temperatures.

However the cold may not be over for long as a potential easterly has been hinted at for the period 6-10th of November by some model outputs.

Thats one we will of course keep an eye on.

Arctic outbreak to bring snowfall across the UK!

There was a time when we had 4 seasons however 2018 has done its best to buck that trend.

Having had the Beast from the East parts 1 and 2 during March the UK quickly went straight into summer with hot weather in April.

This of course went on throughout the summer which was the warmest on record.

These good conditions have also lasted for a large part in Autumn however thats about to change.

Next week we will see an Arctic outbreak spread all the way to the South coast by Friday with a particular risk of snowfall down the western side of Scotland, England and Wales. Whilst no major snowfall is currently expected there could be snow showers in quite a few areas. 

We are also at risk of some severe frosts especially in Scotland with temperatures as low as -6c.

We will have further updates on the areas at risk of snow as we get into next week.

Snow by Bonfire night: Beast from the East may return

The UK has been enjoying a rather mild Autumn so far however it looks as though the UK is about to be plunged straight into winter.

As we go through the next couple of weeks the weather will be dominated by a large area of high pressure sat over the UK bringing fine days and frosty nights.

As we near the end of the month and into early November this high pressure looks set to move towards Scandinavia drawing in an bitterly cold Easterly air flow and of course a risk of heavy Snow once again.

At this stage there is still scope for change however its a weather pattern that could bring significant risks across the whole of the UK as it did earlier in the year. That spell of Easterly winds was responsible for the deaths of 17 people in the UK and 77 across Europe in total.

Despite the risks there is plenty of time for change and therefor there is alot of uncertainty. We will update you as/if the risks increase.

Winter Forecast 2018/19 | El Nino WINTER will bring Severe Snowfall & Freezing conditions!

NOAA’s Climate prediction centre announce a 75% chance of an El Nino winter this year and whilst it is not expected to be the strongest ever seen it will still effect the weather we see.

In summary El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. It is known to trigger intense weather patterns across the world.

Typically El nino winters will lead to colder weather towards the Gulf states of the U.S whilst being milder than usual in the North West of the country. Higher than usual precipitation can tend to give way to potentially record breaking snowfalls later in the season.

For the UK and the North West of Europe El Nino winters tend to be colder than average which will of course increase the likelihood of snowfall events. Whilst individual snowfall events look likely this winter they will almost certainly be interspersed between milder spells due to the temperate climate of the UK.  So those hoping them headlines of ‘4 months of crippling snow’ would be true are likely to be dissapointed. 

Other factors to consider for the UK also point to a colder winter:

At present the current solar cycle is the 24th. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 in February 1906.

2018 is also running close to the lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic ever for this time of year. This increase in fresh water has been linked with a slow down in the Gulf stream and an increase in Northern Latitude blocking.