up to 40cm of SNOW & Freezing rain to hit the UK within 48 hours!

The warnings keep on coming as the first significant wintry spell sets it sights on the UK.

Before we get into the detail its worth baring in mind that whilst there is a severe spell of weather expected the duration is expected to be quite short with the main timeframe for severe conditions from Saturday afternoon through till 06:00 Sunday with a return to average temperatures on Monday.

Snow, Sleet, Freezing rain and heavy rain expected!

As you can there is alot to contend with over the 18 hour period from midday on Saturday. Even before this period begins areas outside of the areas shaded red may well see some wet snow falling for a short period of time however accumulations are unlikely. 

As the bulk of the precipitation bumps into the cold air anywhere from the North Midlands Northwards need to be prepared for snow or freezing rain. Initially snow is expected but as the weather fronts move across the UK it is likely a warm layer will melt the snow as it falls however temperatures at ground level may still be at or below freezing turning this super cooled rain immediately to ice upon impact.

This phenomenon is quite rare in the UK however it can be lethal for those who are braving the elements. Black ice will form readily and trees and powerlines can be brought down under the weight of the ice. The latter may not take place due to the relatively short period of time freezing rain is expected, However slippery surfaces are almost assured so it may be worth getting out and about early if you are still looking for those Christmas presents.

Another hazard will be for any of the high travel routes, The heavy snow in these areas will be accompanied by strong winds gusting up to 60MPH with a risk of Blizzard conditions so expect some road closures. 

As for those outside of the areas shaded in red Saturday will be a blustery and wet day from around 3pm onwards before the rain clears away during the evening. This will then be followed up by a much calmer, drier day Sunday.

Met Office release HEAVY SNOW Warning! Up to 20cm expected on Saturday!

Winter has finally arrived this week with a particularly cold day expected across the UK on friday. Daytime maximums will struggle to get much above 2-4c for many of us with a widespread sharp frost expected Friday evening.

On Saturday a weather system off the Atlantic will attempt to shunt the cold air to our East. Whilst eventually this mild air will sweep right across the UK there is expected to be a spell of Heavy snowfall.

The Met Office warning issued today covers the following areas (Central Tayside & Fife, East Midlands, Grampian Highlands & Eilean Siar, North East England, North West England, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, Strathclyde, Yorkshire & Humber) And warns of 2-5CM of snow for low levels and 10-20cms above 2-300M. 

UK set to be hit with snow over the next 48hours!

Cold air has been filtering across the UK over the past 12 hours and the risk of snow is on the rise.

During the next 48 hours there will be showers of rain, sleet, hail and snow which are expected to be heavy at times. 

This coupled with a brisk wind will see the temperatures feel significantly colder than the true air temp. 

But what about that threat of snow i hear you ask…

Current model predictions expect a wintry mix with a particular risk for snowfall above 200m. Despite this certain parts of the West Midlands and Wales could see snow down to low levels during the early hours of Wednesday morning making that morning commute a little tricky.

Elsewhere parts of Yorkshire, Scottish central belt and the Scottish Highlands could all see some snowfalling for a time throughout wednesday. 

Beyond this the UK finds itself in a battle between low pressure trying to push in and High pressure situated to the North. The high pressure wants to push cold Arctic air southwards whilst powerful low pressure systems want to sweep mild air in off the Atlantic. Given the time range each model output has its own version of how this pans out but should it be high pressure we could be faced with another cold blast as we move into December.

UK facing an Easterly blast of freezing weather lasting well into December!

The UK is now on the brink of the first major cold period that could be locked in right up until Christmas. Colder air will begin filtering across the UK from sunday evening and into next week. 

Initially the risk is reserved to overnight frosts however from mid week onwards a threat of snow increases.

This first blast of cold weather is unlikely to deliver significant snowfall but it is the risk of a another exceptionally severe blast of Easterly winds as we head to the end of November and early December that could make this a notable event.

Its all being brought about by a change in the Arctic Ocsillation from a positive mode to a negative.

This will allow the blocking high to form resulting in a cold and relatively dry spell that could be difficult to break down.

Although dry conditions are favoured the UK is positioned precariously in this set up. Whilst much of Europe is dry the temperature differencial over the North Sea between the warmish waters and the bitterly cold easterly winds can lead to significant snow showers.

There is also the risk that occasional areas of low pressures will try to force the blocking high eastwards and where the two air masses collide the potential for significant frontal snowfall occurs.

At the moment details for such snowfalls cannot be forecast accurately at this time frame but the building blocks are already being put into place. With that in mind we will post an update and issue weather warnings as/if confidence on increases over the course of next week. 

New York City to be hit with up to 6″ of snowfall this evening!

Snow has started to fall in New York City this evening with forecasters warning of potentially 6″.

It is due to a system that has brought snowfall to a large swathe of the North East USA with some areas expecting 12″

Image Credit: NOAA

For further details on Winter Storm Avery VeryWeather have issued an update which can be found HERE.

Beast from the East to blast the UK with SEVERE cold & HEAVY snowfall!

The UK looks set to see a return from an old friend that visited twice in March this year.

Model outputs are increasingly pointing to a bitterly cold Easterly.

The pattern will come about due to a change in the Arctic Oscillation. This change will see the AO turn negative. Opposed to a positive AO werby cold air tends to be bottled up at higher latitudes with a powerful jetstream going East to West we end up with a wavy jetstream which then allows cold air to plunge Southwards.

When the jetstream becomes buckled high pressure has a better chance of building at higher latitudes often referred to as Northern Blocking.

It is this scenario we are seeing from the weekend onwards. Initially cold air will not be to severe due to a lack of cold pooling to our East. However as time goes by this bitterly cold air will begin to make its march West through mainland Europe and eventually to UK shores. 

Many model outputs are showing what this could potentially mean with forecasts of European snow cover to be the most widespread it has been in November since the bitter winter of 2010!

Currently there are varying degrees of severity being modelled due to the timeframe concerned however the risk is increasing for conditions similar to those experienced earlier on this year.

So what could we expect?

Well should the Beast return the weather will be bitterly cold with frequent overnight frosts, Biting windchill and snowfall possible just about anywhere.

Beyond this a continuation of a negative AO will see the potential for cold weather persisting well into December.

White Christmas anyone?

 

Freezing blast from the East set to hit the UK with snow for some!

The UK has enjoyed an incredibly mild spell of late but all is about to change!

The high pressure responsible for the mild weather had been situated near Germany with low pressure in the Atlantic resulting in Southerly winds.

However the weather gods (model outputs) are in agreement this high pressure will migrate towards Scandinavia and leave the UK on the Southern edge. This will mean a spell of Easterly winds.

Now many of you will be aware what Easterly winds are capable of given the Beast from the East parts 1 & 2 during March of this year.

However towards the end of winter cold pooling to the UK’s East is significant compared to this time of year and that will mean a watered down Easterly this time round.

So what should you expect?

The Weather looks set to cool down from next week with daytime temperatures around 4-7c

Overnight there is a risk of frosts for the entire week, Something that has been rare so far this side of summer.

And as for snow? There may be one of two flurries during next week but nothing that we currently expect to cause any problems. 

However…

If the model outputs beyond the next working week prove correct a real snowy, Frosty, Bitterly cold North Easterly could herald the start of winter in a significant way!

Watch this space.

Disruptive SNOWFALL during the next 48 hours expected, dumping upto 12″!

The new week is almost upon on us and with it a spell of significant and disruptive snow for some in the U.S with as much as 12″ falling.

Heavy snow will fall from around midday today for Denver and much of Colorado before spreading into Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma later on in the day.

The largest falls will spread from Denver down to Pueblo and South East to Amarillo with many areas hit by 3″ minimum and up to 12″ in the worst hit areas, Some of which will experience whiteout conditions.

Many of these areas will then see an exceptionally cold night with temperatures 20-30 degrees below the expected normal for November.

Image Credit: Weather.US

The band of snow will progress North East over the course of Monday and Tuesday bringing further significant accumulations for parts of New York State, Vermont and Maine before affecting Montreal and Quebec City in Canada.

Brutal polar vortex to bring bitter cold & heavy snow to the U.S!

Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East

Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.

The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee.

At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls.

We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of

Will it be a white Christmas?

So with Christmas coming up just next month we thought we would answer the question.

Well sort of…

With far to much time to accurately give a forecast we will look at historic data to show the likelihood of such event.

Many of you may know that statistically in the UK the chance of a white Christmas is less than a white Easter so lets take a look at what chance there is for where ever you are…

UK Christmas Probability

For those of you in the United States wondering the exact same question…

U.S White Christmas Probability. Credit: WeatherNation