Hurricane Oscar to impact the UK before a return to bitter cold!

The UK has just had its coldest night of the year with temperatures down to -7.1c in Sennybridge, Wales.

However temperatures are now returning to near normal values and the focus turns towards the South West.

Category 2 Hurricane Oscar is bearing down on the UK with the remnants expected to impact Northern Ireland, North West England and Scotland Friday and Saturday.

This will see some strong wind gusts of over 70MPH along with the potential for flooding as a spell of heavy rain sweeps through.

This will lead on to a rather wet and at times windy week before a potential return to bitterly cold conditions for the middle of November!

UK expected to be battered by immense storms with 110MPH winds possible on Sunday!

This week is set to go from relatively hot for some of us to wet and extremely windy.

First the UK will feel the effects as EX Hurricane Helene crosses our shores. She will begin to be felt this evening and for much of tomorrow particularly in the West.

As the week goes on we see a succession of strong Low pressure systems flirt with the country.

Generally the worst of these winds will be for Northern Ireland, Northern England and Scotland however on Sunday the current GFS paints a potentially deadly picture.

The most severe storm in some time could hit the UK with extremely strong Hurricane force winds of up to 110MPH!

Currently confidence is low on a mega storm hitting for the end of the weekend but it something we will be monitoring very closely in the coming days.

Hurricane HELENE is heading for the UK!

While many are focusing on the dangerous hurricane Florence, there is another interesting and potentially dangerous tropical system in the Atlantic.

The Category 1 hurricane Helene is heading towards Europe early next week.

Helene is currently still in the central Atlantic, but is moving towards the Azores and it is a beast!

Current satelite images show Helene to be a well defined hurricane with strong winds which could reach in excess of 100MPH.

Helene will eventually become a post-tropical storm and accelerate towards western Europe. It is possible the ex-hurricane Helene will be pushed into British isles and Ireland on Monday and bring gale force winds and torrential rainfall with potentially dangerous conditions.

DEADLY Hurricane Florence takes aim at the United States & it looks incredible!

Hurricane Florence is bearing down on America’s East coast and the images look stunning.

The Hurricane is expected to cause severe damage and a risk to peoples lives as we go through Thursday into Saturday.

Wind speeds could be as high as 150MPH along with a severe storm surge and monumental rainfall.

Some experts predict it could be the costliest Hurricane ever to hit the U.S!

Check out the latest picture of the Eye taken earlier today…

 

Ophelia to make landfall with deadly conditions as Southern Ireland could see over 100MPH wind speeds!

In less than 24 hours Ophelia will be making its presence felt across the UK & in particular Ireland where the Southern most coastal regions can expect winds to top 100MPH!

The whole of Ireland will see potentially damaging wind speeds with Trees, Fences, Tiles and other loose objects likely to be victim to the ferocious winds with residents urged to ensure all loose garden furniture, Pots, chairs etc etc are taken in.

Ophelia is also forecast to produce 2 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals nearing 4 inches through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Yesterday Met Eireann took the step of issuing a red warning for the storm that could be the most powerful to hit the UK in 30 years.

The statement from them reads as follows:

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions . Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:

Saturday 14 October 2017 13:18

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

 

 

NOAA predict Ophelia could be the closest a Hurricane has ever came to UK Shores!

The National Hurricane Center’s latest update on Ophelia shows the Hurricane remaining just that incredibly close to the South West of Ireland.

The latest update which categorises Ophelia as a Cat 1 Hurricane shows a slow East North Eastward movement with the potential for further strengthening over the next 2 days on top of the already powerful 85MPH Sustained winds and gusts of over 100MPH+!

Current projections would bring the worst of the strong winds and heavy rainfall to the South West tip of Ireland with the potential for the worst storm this area has seen in many years.

The latest statement from the NOAA NWS reads as follows:

‘OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC…

Hurricane Ophelia is centered as of 5 a.m. AST about 725 miles (1165 km) southwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed a by faster motion toward the east-northeast or northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).’

Hurricane Ophelia threatens to be the worst storm to hit the UK since 1987!

Tropical storm Ophelia is currently in the Atlantic and is expected to gain Hurricane status within the next 24hours.

Current model outputs vary in its exact track but the UK is likely to see some effects of this potentially dangerous storm.

If the UK find itself in its path constant wind speeds of 40-60MPH with gusts of 80-100MPH possible along with huge amounts of rainfall that would likely bring flooding to certain prone areas.

At this stage the worst conditions (going by the very latest model outputs) will be for the western fringes of Ireland & Northern Ireland however at 5 days out there is plenty of time for changes that may make significant difference.

Aside from the potential for strong winds Orphelia will not mean its all doom and gloom with those in parts of the South East potentially seeing some very mild days as what will then be Ex tropical storm Ophelia drags up some very mild air for the time of the year with 21 or 22c possible.

 

 

Hurricane Nate could make landfall as a Cat 3 Hurricane as New Orleans evacuates!

Located over the Southern Gulf of Mexico, Nate continues to strengthen as it barrels towards the Northern Gulf Coast of the U.S.

After being upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane at 10pm CDT, Nate has continued to gradually strengthen and currently now has max winds of 80mph, with higher gusts.

Nate is likely to continue strengthening over the next 24-30hrs while it remains in a favorable low shear, moisture-rich, and thermodynamic environment.

The official NHC forecast brings Nate onshore early Sunday morning near SE LA as an 85mph CAT 1 hurricane. I will note, however, that the SHIPS model does indicate a 50/50 chance of Rapid Intensification (RI) occurring within 24hrs, a 30knot + increase in winds.

Therefore, I would prepare for a CAT 2 or 3 hurricane. This hurricane is likely to be much stronger than originally forecasted at the time of landfall.

In addition, Nate is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding, damaging hurricane force winds, isolated tornadoes (mainly North and East of the center), and dangerous storm surge.

Due to Nate’s fast forward speed, the threat of flooding has been greatly reduced, however, it still remains a threat to life and property.

In preparation of these expected impacts, local NWS Officials have issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, as well as Storm Surge Warnings from SE LA eastward to the FL Panhandle.

These impacts are expected to arrive in the warning area by Saturday evening.

It is also important to remember that impacts from this hurricane can and will be felt well away from the center. I urge all local residents to complete preparations and/or evacuations by early Saturday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba

Hurricanes MARIA & LEE combine to form a Giant Atlantic SUPERSTORM that is set to smash into Britain!

Currently two Hurricanes are lurking out in the Atlantic but look increasingly likely to interact with each  other when they near British shores!

Maria currently has maximum sustained winds near 70mph but some slight weakening is forecast before a potential convergence with Hurricane Lee at the weekend.

At 4am BST, the NHC update said Hurricane Lee was last located about 570 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

It was moving west at 9mph but is expected to swing around and begin heading northeast through the Atlantic within the next two days.

Lee currently has sustained winds of 110mph, making it category 2. The hurricane will turn into a major category 3 hurricane today before weakening begins tomorrow.

The potential caused by Maria and Lee coming together could give rise to the UK’s second named storm of the season.

Both hurricanes are located around the northeast coast of America but we expect them to get together around Sunday.

The jet stream is powering up and as it swings southwards towards the end of the week it will help steer the remnants of these storms towards the UK.

Current forecasts show the North of the UK seeing the strongest winds however the potential is for a small area of Low pressure to develop in the jet stream further south in the UK which could bring damaging wind gusts should one form. At this range small developments are not possible to forecast but it will be something we keep a close eye on.

 

Major Hurricane Maria could hit the Dominican Republic head on with 120MPH+ Winds before heading towards the U.S!

Maria has been named by the National Hurricane Centre as a Hurricane and looks to pose a huge threat to many areas including the United States.

Current forecasts show rapid strengthening of the system as it barrels towards the Dominican Republic.

Other areas in its path include the Leeward Islands, St. Lucia, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, Martinique, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Image: NOAA

At this range the track is still not guaranteed and landfall for the United States is something we cannot say will happen for certain, However it is something to be aware of as the latest model outputs show this to be a possibility.