So summer seemingly left the UK many moons ago however one model output (The GFS) has been hinting at a significant heatwave from the end of next week.
The big question is will the GFS be correct or has it got its wires crossed.
Currently there is some support to the output being shown however one of the other most trusted model outputs the ECMWF refuses to show such promising charts.
With that in mind and the length of time until such heatwave may or may not start confidence has to be low at around 20%.
The most likely scenario is a watered down outcome with best conditions towards the South East. That in itself may be an improvement on recent weeks.
So until we get some more certainty lets just bask in what the GFS shows for now and have all our fingers, legs and anything else crossed that it comes off…
Temps begin to rise sunday 25-27c possible
Heatwave if full swing by Tuesday with 30c likely hit in one or two areas…
Even by the following Sunday hot temperatures persist with 33-35c as potential highs
Extreme weather could kill up to 152,000 people yearly in Europe by 2100 if nothing is done to curb the effects of climate change, scientists say.
The number is 50 times more deaths than reported now, the study in The Lancet Planetary Health journal said.
Heat waves would cause 99% of all weather-related deaths, it added, with southern Europe being worst affected.
Experts said the findings were worrying but some warned the projections could be overestimated.
If nothing is done to cut greenhouse gas emissions and to improve policies to reduce the impact against extreme weather events, the study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre says:
- Deaths caused by extreme weather could rise from 3,000 a year between 1981 and 2010 to 152,000 between 2071 and 2100
- Two in three people in Europe will be affected by disasters by 2100, against a rate of one in 20 at the start of the century
- There will be a substantial rise in deaths from coastal flooding, from six victims a year at the start of the century to 233 a year by the end of it
The research analysed the effects of the seven most dangerous types of weather-related events – heat waves, cold snaps, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms – in the 28 EU countries as well as Switzerland, Norway and Iceland.
So if your in the UK all the talk of how hot it is in Europe probably hasn’t helped gloss over the lack of any heat for this small part of the world over the past few weeks.
The end of Spring and start of Summer actually started well with dry and warm, Sometimes hot conditions. Remember the 5 consecutive days we saw temperatures over 30c?
No me neither. Seems like an age ago now.
Don’t panic just yet though, The first green shoots are starting to appear in the model outputs and into a semi reliable timeframe.
By midweek high pressure looks set to move close to the UK bringing calmer and sunnier weather once again.
Initially temperatures are not expected to hit the heady heights of June but we should see 22-25c once again.
Beyond this high pressure wants to hang on around the UK for sometime so there is every chance if it falls into the right position we can tap into that incredible heatwave the rest of Europe are enjoying/enduring.
Wondered where the summer is? Well look no further than Southern Europe where temperatures are so hot even the sea temperature… Yes the sea water temperature is up to an incredible 30 celcius!
Night temps have been breaking records in a number of places too with over 35c seen in recent nights.
And then there is the daytime temperatures which are not just boiling but are widespread across the region from Turkey through the balkans into Italy the South of France and Spain all hitting highs over 40c. locally we may even see over 45c today.
These hot temps over land have triggered some monster thunderstorms in recent days with 100’s of lightning strikes per minute, Mammoth sized hail, Tornado’s and lots and lots of monsoon like rainfall with more similar storms expected!
Watch Extreme Hail storm in Turkey
Forest fires have also been widespread with many evacuations ordered in various places affecting not only locals but tourists also.
And when cooler weather does move in people close to the coast will still be at risk of huge thunderstorms as the extremely high sea temperatures will likely create severe instability in the atmosphere.
So if you wondered where Summer got to there you have it. But remember if your out in the Heatwave be sure to seek shelter from the sun at regular intervals, Sunscreen a plenty and keep hydrated.
Temperatures across the continent are continuing to hit the high 30s & even low to mid 40s this week!
Europe has already seen impressive temperatures this summer with record breaking heat in spain earlier this summer.
As we head into August temps are on the rise once again with Spain, Italy & Greece all sweltering.
Italy Bakes with temperatures nudging the mid 40s by midweek!
Many areas of Spain are in the high 30s!
The most depressing for those in the UK that like hot weather is the chart for France that shows just how close the heat is.
The weather for the UK is currently summed up by one word. ‘Changeable’.
But will that continue or will we join many southern parts of Europe that are seeing extremely hot temperatures?
Well to find the answer we have to look at the outputs the models are showing and weighing up the likelihood of one outcome or another.
Currently there is a tendency to bring low pressure in from the west and set up shop to the North West of Northern Ireland.
This has the net result of allowing a fairly mobile pattern to be the main influence of our weather bringing ‘Changeable’ Weather.
However secondary areas of low pressure are hinted at by the models setting up further south allowing a straight Southerly wind flow bringing that very hot air with it.
As you can from the image above the hot air is expected to be within touching distance as we head towards August.
The difficult part is to establish how far south any secondary low will head and can it stay far enough to our south west to draw up that hot feed of air.
The latest output shows the secondary low pushing east to quickly and thus bringing cooler air across the UK. The reason this occurs is due to the lack of a strong area of high pressure over France/Germany area. At this range however it is not unusual to see the model outputs under estimating the strength of high pressure and hitting the default mode and pushing the entire system through very quickly.
As we head nearer to the time we will be keeping a close on any upgrades with regards to the strength of the high over Europe to see if we can tap in to that summer weather once again.
For now though. One word. Changeable.
Thunderstorms are all the talk as we head towards tuesday however the potential for record breaking heat as we hinted at earlier on this month is now becoming a real possibility!
Tuesday & Wednesday will see severe thunderstorms push up from the south and head north Tuesday evening and throughout the day Wednesday before finally clearing.
This will lead to somewhat fresher conditions for a time however model forecasts are predicting the hottest spell of the summer is just around the corner and this time things could get very very hot!
The Hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK was 38.5c in Faversham, Kent back in 2003.
This looks to be seriously under threat if the end of the month plays out like current outputs suggest with a large area of high pressure situated over mainland Europe and low pressure out to the West drawing up those Hot conditions.
However dont book the days off work just yet as its a long way off in weather terms and lots can change but its something to keep an eye on.
The nicer weather has been with those in the south for a couple of days already with 24/25c over the weekend just gone.
This isn’t the end of the nice weather however and as the week progresses the temperature will increase.
On Tuesday those in the South East will see 25/26c whilst the Majority of England see temperatures between 20 and 22c.
By wednesday the heat increases and for many in England & Wales temperatures will be up to 25/26c with top temperatures in the south of up to 28c.
Thursday follows a similar pattern with regards to temperature but by then the chance of a thunderstorm will increase especially for those along the South coast and to the West of England and Wales.
Friday looks set to be the day to finish work early as temperatures look like pushing through the 30c barrier however the risk of catching a thunderstorm is still there so be prepared if your half way through the BBQ.
As for the weekend and next week, Early indications are for England and Wales to hold on to some nice weather however as you would probably expect the further North you are the lower the temperature and the higher chance of seeing some rain.
As we stated just the other day & back at the start of May, This summer (Touch wood) is shaping up to be a nice one.
38.5c record to be broken this summer?
BBQ Summer increasingly likely
Yup you guessed it, the summer is fast approaching and the stories of a BBQ summer are mounting up.
So is there any genuine forecasting behind it…
Well, No. At such distance long range forecasts have a success rate that is about as accurate as you or me saying its going to be 28celcius for 5 days in the final week of July and getting it right.
The Met Office tends to pick up on trends that may increase the likelihood of one outcome or another but as we saw from the Winter just gone in the UK, Numerous pointers towards a colder than average winter failed to deliver. Like the guys at the Met Office themselves say, Just because something favours one outcome it doesn’t mean that its the only possibility.
So if you want to stay in the know for the summer take anything past around 10days with a pinch of salt.
Still im sure many of us are hoping The Express and co who have us down for the HOTTEST SUMMER since records began may get lucky.