We said it was going to get warm and as things stand the UK is still in the firing line for a fine few days.
From sunday onwards temperatures should be in the range of 23-28c as one last spell of hot weather looks set.
Through Monday to Wednesday there is a risk of 30c + however there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding just how hot it will peak at.
Unlike earlier on this summer the early signs suggest this wont be around for very long with Sunday to Wednesday looking like the best of the hot spell so make sure you get out there and enjoy it if sunny weather is what your after.
Currently weather model outputs are giving different scenarios beyond Wednesday however following the most likely scenarios this will likely be the back end of the hot spell with a return to near normal temperatures.
No matter where you are in the UK today you probably wont have seen much in the way of sunshine.
But dont pack the summer gear away just yet.
As we head into September high pressure situates itself nicely close to the UK eventually bringing a southerly wind.
This will lead to a spell of hot weather with temperatures potentially reaching 30c.
Unfortunately most weather models dont predict a long spell of hot weather so you may be best suited to making the most of it with the heatwave expected to last between the 2nd and 5th of September.
If may seem a mile away from summer right now but we have had it pretty damn good!
Infact it could still proove to be a record breaker, Beating that summer of 1976.
However if like me your wish for cooler weather was temporary then things might be looking up.
As we head towards the end of August/Early September many weather models point towards a high pressure dominated pattern.
The GFS model hints at high pressure strewn across the UK which would bring sunny days and highs of 25/26c whilst the ECMWF model believes the high pressure will be anchored over Germany thus leading to a Southerly wind flow across the UK and temperatures around 30c!
At this stage there is significant room for change but with cross model agreement of some late summer weather perhaps it’s not quite time to put the BBQ away.
A threat to life is becoming a real concern as the Heatwave takes a more sinister turn later this week.
The threat will come from numerous aspects of what is becoming the Hottest summer the UK has ever experienced.
The Met Office released an Amber warning yesterday due to the increasing temperatures and advised people not to go out during the midday sun with the risk of heat Exhaustion/stroke being high, Especially for those more vulnerable, The young, Elderly and of course your pets.
The dangers dont end there however, Strengthening southerly winds on Thursday will see an increased risk of larger, Longer lasting wild fires causing chaos for fire crews.
Then comes the third and potentially devastating risk of flash floods.
The North East, The Midlands, East Anglia and the South East are currently the highest risk areas for intense Thunderstorms to break out on Thursday & Friday.
These storms could see large amounts of rainfall in a short space of time. Should these be slow moving the risk of homes and businesses becoming flooded will be high due to the exceptionally dry ground being unable to absorb the water quickly. This threat will be coupled with frequent lightning, Large hail & strong winds, Posing a risk to Homes, Cars and anyone caught outside.
Whilst Thunderstorms could be severe it is worth mentioning at this stage there is still some uncertainty regarding how widespread they will be. Combine that with the likelihood storms will be isolated seeing one will be the exception not the rule.
As we look ahead the forecast shows a continuation of the same theme. Hot Hot, Chance of storms and then some more Hot weather.
Today has seen temps nudge up just a tad and that is the very beginning of an exceptionally hot and prolonged summery spell.
The UK may be on the verge of a period of weather that rivals 2003 as hot conditions are expected to last from now onward with no end in sight in the current model output.
The GFS model also predicts 0mm of rainfall throughout its entire prediction which goes to +384 hours for large parts of the UK.
On the back of such a good May and a not to shabby June this inevitably puts the UK at risk of Wild fires and hose pipe bans.
Current outputs are predicting temperatures from London to Bristol up to Manchester and across to Norwich regularly exceeding 30c from Thursday until a week on Monday.
Infact many models see no end in sight to what could turn out to be an absolute classic summer.
Perhaps it could be time to get an air con unit before they sell out?
With an excellent May for many June has not quite delivered.
However the first real heatwave is now looking likely with forecasters mentioning temperatures of over 30c & possibly as high as 36c!
The summer heat will be on from Sunday with temperatures up to 27c in London with the rest of the UK joining in from Monday.
The Southeast will be upto 30c next Monday and mid to high twenties elsewhere.
The Heat continues to build throughout the week with the potential for near record breaking temperatures between Wednesday & Friday.
As the week progresses the UK will also see a threat of Severe localised Thunderstorms bringing large hail and strong winds so make sure you keep an eye on the radar if you are having a BBQ.
2018 is already shaping up to be a memorable one for any weather fans out there.
We had the Beast from the East part 1 & 2, We had a sizzling Easter, We had the hottest ever London Marathon and we have had a cracking May.
Now we may go one further and have a record breaking end of May bank holiday.
As temperatures rise over this weekend and into next week we develop an unstable atmosphere with low pressure over France.
This could lead to explosive thunderstorms with Supercell thunderstorms a real possibility.
This of course means a risk of a multiple lightning strikes, Flash flooding, Large hail and an outside chance of a Tornado!
As we go forward high pressure looks anchored close to the UK and therefor the good weather is looking set to stay.
Now, Who mentioned hose pipe ban?
The weather has been far from hot lately, Infact warm days have been few and far between but finally something summery is on the horizon.
Many Weather model outputs have begun throwing up some very welcome projections.
These have included high pressure close to the UK bringing blue skies and temperatures around 18-22c to the even more tasty Spanish Plume style heatwave which would see temperatures surpass 25c for the first time in many months.
Of course the model outputs at such range cannot be 100% relied on however when there is a consistent trend it shows that the signals being picked up are strong and therfor we have to take note.
We will of course up date you this time next week as the timeframe nears closer but for now maybe its finally time to start finding those summer clothes out.
We’ve all heard some of the bad news surrounding Ophelia.
However for parts of England she may be a blessing with the Hurricane dragging a lot of very mild air northwards with her spilling into England.
So much warm air that the temperature record could be broken with temps reaching 26/27c by monday afternoon!
So maybe one last BBQ is on the cards after all.
With the Summer holidays coming to an end its only right that sods law looks set to bring a blistering start to September with temperatures possibly exceeding 30c!
As we all know its not been the greatest summer ever despite what was a good start back in June.
However things are finally set to return to something more akin to having a BBQ and a few glasses of something in the garden.
Both highly rated model Outputs the ECMWF & the GFS suggest high pressure will become situated to our east or South East allowing hot air to be drawn over much of the UK by the end of the month.
At such range of course there is still a lot of uncertainty but with both models showing a similar scenario for the UK and a weakening of areas of Low pressure coming in off the Atlantic the confidence of seeing a good start to next month is growing.