Winter Forecast 2018/19 | El Nino WINTER will bring Severe Snowfall & Freezing conditions!

NOAA’s Climate prediction centre announce a 75% chance of an El Nino winter this year and whilst it is not expected to be the strongest ever seen it will still effect the weather we see.

In summary El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. It is known to trigger intense weather patterns across the world.

Typically El nino winters will lead to colder weather towards the Gulf states of the U.S whilst being milder than usual in the North West of the country. Higher than usual precipitation can tend to give way to potentially record breaking snowfalls later in the season.

For the UK and the North West of Europe El Nino winters tend to be colder than average which will of course increase the likelihood of snowfall events. Whilst individual snowfall events look likely this winter they will almost certainly be interspersed between milder spells due to the temperate climate of the UK.  So those hoping them headlines of ‘4 months of crippling snow’ would be true are likely to be dissapointed. 

Other factors to consider for the UK also point to a colder winter:

At present the current solar cycle is the 24th. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 in February 1906.

2018 is also running close to the lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic ever for this time of year. This increase in fresh water has been linked with a slow down in the Gulf stream and an increase in Northern Latitude blocking.

UK Met Office releases its Winter forecast highlighting the risk of a COLD start to winter!

The Met Office has released its long-range outlook for December 2016 to February 2017, highlighting the risk of a cold start to the winter for the UK.

Latest observations from around the globe and long-range weather prediction systems suggest that the early part of the winter period is more likely than usual to be cold. This implies a heightened risk of wintry weather during December and into January.

Overall, it should be stressed that more normal winter weather, with temperatures ranging from slightly below average to mild, is still marginally more likely. Nevertheless, the risk of cold conditions at the start of winter is now greater than it has been in recent winters.

The graphic below illustrates the current outlook for temperatures in early winter. For a normal year the most likely outcome is in the near average category.  This winter, however, the probability is shifted towards below average temperatures, with the most likely outcome – the widest part of the curve – remaining above the ‘cold’ category.

seasonal_forecast_graphic

Doctor Jeff Knight, who leads the production of the Met Office long-range outlook says: “This time last year our outlook gave advance warning of the risk of the very mild, stormy and wet start to winter that was linked to the flooding in Cumbria, but this year indications are very different. Weather patterns with more frequent northerly or easterly winds are favoured, which increases the risk of cold weather.”

Our winter weather patterns respond to influences from across the globe: Currently, the winds circulating around the North Pole in the stratosphere – between 10 and 50 km in altitude – are much weaker than normal and this is expected to weaken the westerly winds across the Atlantic.

Furthermore, tropical East Pacific Ocean temperatures are slightly below average, just above the threshold for La Nina.  Although these cool conditions also tend to impede the UK’s usual westerly winds in early winter. Warmth in the North Atlantic Ocean near Newfoundland and record low Arctic sea ice are also contributing to the same tendency, favouring a colder-than-average early winter.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, explains: “The stratosphere, tropics and Arctic sea ice are all trying to push our weather towards becoming colder over the next few weeks.  Although it is not guaranteed, our long range predictions and those from other forecast centres suggest an increased risk of cold weather patterns early this winter.”

Later in the winter, there appears to be a shift towards less risk of cold conditions. More detail about this period will be available in updates to the Met Office long-range outlook which will be released as winter progresses and our 30-day and week-ahead forecasts will provide advance warning of specific weather events throughout the winter.

More heavy snow for the states throughout this week!

More Wintry Weather Headed For Rockies, Upper Midwest and Northeast through Thanksgiving Week.

System #1: Through Thanksgiving Day

Tuesday

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday’s Forecast

Snow is expected from eastern North Dakota to central/northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This will spread across northern Wisconsin into parts of northern Michigan by Tuesday night.

Just south of this snow, a mix of rain, freezing rain or wet snow may impact areas from eastern South Dakota to southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.

Snow will also linger in parts of the central Rockies, adding to the fresh snowfall in ski resorts across parts of Colorado and Wyoming, just in time for those spending their Thanksgiving holiday there.

Wednesday/Thursday

Wednesday's Forecast

Wednesday’s Forecast

Wet snow will persist Wednesday from Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Lower Michigan. Mainly rain is expected from the southern Great Lakes southward.

Wednesday night, rain and snow showers will push eastward into parts of the interior Northeast, possibly as far east as western New England by early Thanksgiving morning.

Thursday's Forecast

Thursday’s Forecast

By Thanksgiving Day, any remaining snow from this first system will be rather patchy and light from Upper Michigan to the interior Northeast and northern New England. It’s also possible that southeastern New England may see some light snow or freezing drizzle early in the morning before changing to light rain.

As mentioned before, the snowfall from this system won’t be as heavy or widespread as we saw with Winter Storm Argos.

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall Forecast

The best chance for moderate accumulations of up to a half foot or so is from eastern Minnesota into northern and central Wisconsin.

Generally lighter accumulations are possible elsewhere in the upper Midwest and interior Northeast from “system number one.”

System #2: Thanksgiving Day Through Saturday

A second system will follow immediately in the first’s track in this busy, active weather pattern. It’s not expected to be a major system by any means, but will deposit more snow in some areas. Here is the general timing/impact of this system.

  • Thanksgiving Day: Light snow in parts of the northern Plains, heads into the Upper Midwest in the evening.
  • Friday: Some light, wet snow or rain will travel through the Great Lakes into northern New York and northern New England.
  • Saturday: Lingering rain/snow showers are possible in the interior Northeast. Some potential for more significant snow in parts of northern New England.

Heavy Snow moving into parts of the UK!

A quick update on our post yesterday and another look at the areas at most risk.

We said yesterday about the risk posed by a large area of moisture sweeping off the Atlantic and hitting the cold air currently in situe over large parts of the UK.

This in turn is going to see the first meaningful snowfall that has the potential to cause disruption in some areas through this evening and into tomorrow.

As of the time of writing 1pm GMT the precipitation falling as snow is moving into Western parts of Scotland gradually pushing Eastwards. By around 6pm this Evening parts of Northwest England will also see the first snowflakes begin to fall. By Midnight tonight the areas shown in pink in the image below are at most risk of seeing any accumulating snow although for low ground this may only be temporary during the heaviest spells.

ptype_13midn

The UK Met Office has released an updated warning that reads as follows…

"Rain will turn to snow in places later on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This could bring accumulations of 4 to 8 cm across some hilly areas of northern England and Scotland, largely above 200-300 m, with as much as 15 cm possible above 300-400 m. 

Overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as snow peters out over Scotland, Pennine areas are expected to receive a covering of snow, largely on vegetated surfaces above 200-300 m. However, there is also the potential for 5-10 cm of snow to settle to low levels over parts of Yorkshire and down into the northeast Midlands, though with a good deal of uncertainty about this. 

Please be aware of the potential for difficult driving conditions in some areas."

The UK set for the first HEAVY snowfall tomorrow night!

Ok so the usual heard it all before etc etc will no doubt take over the comments section, But for those in the areas at risk lets take a look when and potentially how much.

As we head in to tomorrow evening an area of low pressure is set to move across the UK bumping in to all that cold air that has had us all shivering for the past few days.

As it does so we will see rain readily turn to snow for the places that are shown within the band of pink (Snow).

And without wanting to blow our own trumpet the areas shown seem very similar to those that we mentioned were at risk two weeks ago (Ok apart from Northern Ireland).

The UK & US set to face early blast of Wintry weather with HEAVY snowfalls! Posted: October 25th 2016.

So will we see settling snow?

For many within the area highlighted we will only see a temporary covering at best due to very marginal ground temperatures. However the further north you go or higher altitude you have then the potential is there for between 5-10cms with the very highest ground in both England & Scotland seeing in excess of 20cms!

ptype_42

This could be the first of many snowfalls this winter as experts such as the guys at the UK Met Office are predicting there is an increased chance for a colder than average winter.

We wait to see…

Meteorologists claim this winter will see the worst Daily Express weather scaremongering in a CENTURY!

The ‘experts’ at The Daily Express weather HQ are today warning that due to unforeseen weather patterns, Known to many of us as ‘Seasons’, We are faced with cooler weather conditions with the potential for stronger winds and an increase in rainfall during December, January and Incredibly February aswell.

The Meteorologists who have just been awarded a degree in complete nonsense say we should be stockpiling food & water as getting to the shops could be near to impossible if Britain gets the expected arctic conditions.

When questioned about the past forecasts of impending Weather ‘CHAOS’ which went as far as to say we would get 100 days of snow and had just 15minutes the Chief General forecaster said “We cant be expected to be 100% accurate all of the time”,

“However new signals from the Global Nonsense System ‘GNS’ used by The Express, (Not to be confused with the far more accurate Global Forecasting System ‘GFS’ used by credible Weather Organisations) insist we have got to be right this year due to low solar output, an increase in fresh water into the North Atlantic and the fact the UK has drifted a cm further north since this time last year”.

Whatever the weather it looks like we are sure to be in for some interesting reading/BS once again.