Mild November across the UK & Mainland Europe to continue

Much of Europe has had one of the mildest Autumns for many years following on the theme from the hot summer.

And the positive news is that the latest model guidance suggests this pattern is set to continue for the next two to three weeks with a large area of high pressure over Europe pumping mild air from Northern Africa through Spain, France and the UK. 

Of course at this time of year it wont quite be BBQ weather however it will certainly be a welcome spell for those looking to save on the heating bills. 

Unfortunately this will not come as good news to all. Ski resorts across the Alps are reporting nearly no snowfall except at the highest resorts and with opening dates just a few weeks away many are keeping fingers crossed the current pattern will break sooner rather than later. 

Warning of more than 150,000 people killed in Europe per year by 2100 due to Extreme Weather!

Extreme weather could kill up to 152,000 people yearly in Europe by 2100 if nothing is done to curb the effects of climate change, scientists say.

The number is 50 times more deaths than reported now, the study in The Lancet Planetary Health journal said.

Heat waves would cause 99% of all weather-related deaths, it added, with southern Europe being worst affected.

Experts said the findings were worrying but some warned the projections could be overestimated.

If nothing is done to cut greenhouse gas emissions and to improve policies to reduce the impact against extreme weather events, the study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre says:

  • Deaths caused by extreme weather could rise from 3,000 a year between 1981 and 2010 to 152,000 between 2071 and 2100
  • Two in three people in Europe will be affected by disasters by 2100, against a rate of one in 20 at the start of the century
  • There will be a substantial rise in deaths from coastal flooding, from six victims a year at the start of the century to 233 a year by the end of it

The research analysed the effects of the seven most dangerous types of weather-related events – heat waves, cold snaps, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms – in the 28 EU countries as well as Switzerland, Norway and Iceland.

Europe heatwave continues but what about the UK?

So if your in the UK all the talk of how hot it is in Europe probably hasn’t helped gloss over the lack of any heat for this small part of the world over the past few weeks.

The end of Spring and start of Summer actually started well with dry and warm, Sometimes hot conditions. Remember the 5 consecutive days we saw temperatures over 30c?

No me neither. Seems like an age ago now.

Don’t panic just yet though, The first green shoots are starting to appear in the model outputs and into a semi reliable timeframe.

By midweek high pressure looks set to move close to the UK bringing calmer and sunnier weather once again.

Initially temperatures are not expected to hit the heady heights of June but we should see 22-25c once again.

Beyond this high pressure wants to hang on around the UK for sometime so there is every chance if it falls into the right position we can tap into that incredible heatwave the rest of Europe are enjoying/enduring.

Mediterranean melts under extreme heatwave affecting the whole region with temps in excess of 40c! Locally 45c+ today!

Wondered where the summer is? Well look no further than Southern Europe where temperatures are so hot even the sea temperature… Yes the sea water temperature is up to an incredible 30 celcius!

Night temps have been breaking records in a number of places too with over 35c seen in recent nights.

And then there is the daytime temperatures which are not just boiling but are widespread across the region from Turkey through the balkans into Italy the South of France and Spain all hitting highs over 40c. locally we may even see over 45c today.

These hot temps over land have triggered some monster thunderstorms in recent days with 100’s of lightning strikes per minute, Mammoth sized hail, Tornado’s and lots and lots of monsoon like rainfall with more similar storms expected!

Watch Extreme Hail storm in Turkey

Forest fires have also been widespread with many evacuations ordered in various places affecting not only locals but tourists also.

And when cooler weather does move in people close to the coast will still be at risk of huge thunderstorms as the extremely high sea temperatures will likely create severe instability in the atmosphere.

So if you wondered where Summer got to there you have it. But remember if your out in the Heatwave be sure to seek shelter from the sun at regular intervals, Sunscreen a plenty and keep hydrated.

Severe Thunderstorm outbreak today over large swathe of Europe including the UK!

Thunderstorms are already about in one or two areas of the UK & isolated cells will continue to produce lightning strikes this afternoon into this evening.

The biggest concern however is for mainland Europe where storms producing huge rainfall totals, Regular lightning strikes aswell as very large hail are all possible.

We will be keeping a close eye on these storms and will broadcast live later today when things really start to fire up.

 

Europe continues to bake as intense heatwave continues!

Temperatures across the continent are continuing to hit the high 30s & even low to mid 40s this week!

Europe has already seen impressive temperatures this summer with record breaking heat in spain earlier this summer.

As we head into August temps are on the rise once again with Spain, Italy & Greece all sweltering.

Italy Bakes with temperatures nudging the mid 40s by midweek!

Many areas of Spain are in the high 30s!

The most depressing for those in the UK that like hot weather is the chart for France that shows just how close the heat is.

Major 110° Heatwave for the Mediterranean next week – even the locals found it too hot!

A surge of hot air will lift temperatures close to or above 40°C, 104°F very widely across popular holiday destinations in the Med next week. Eastern Spain, Ibiza, Majorca, Italy, southern France and Alpine regions will roast over the next few days as temperatures climb to as high as 10-15C above average.

Widely temperatures of 40C are expected across Mediterranean throughout virtually the whole of next week

People in the area are advised to stay cool and out of the sun during peak heat hours (11:30 – 4:30) and drink an adequate amount of water.
The forecast temperatures of 40-45°C, are around 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above what you would expect, and although the 30°C is still hot, this heatwave is exceptional compared to average. Signs are that this heatwave could last as long as 10 days! Stay safe!

Forecast from: http://www.veryweather.co.uk

The Polar Vortex is shifting increasing the chances of a bitter winter for America and Europe

Climate change has hit the Arctic worse than ever over the past few years, but that doesn’t mean the Northern Hemisphere is going to be experiencing a mild winter this year.

In fact, a new study shows that the polar vortex is shifting, and it’s going to make winters on the east coast of the US and parts of Europe even longer, with exceptionally cold temperatures expected during March.

The polar vortex is that lovely zone of cold air that swirls around the Arctic during winter. When parts of the vortex break apart and splinter off, it can cause unseasonably cold conditions in late-winter and early-spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

This happened in early 2014 – as you can see in the satellite image above – and caused an extreme weather event in the northern US and Canada.

But not many people realise there are actually two polar vortices: the stratospheric polar vortex, which is about 19,800 metres (65,000 feet) above the surface of the Earth; and the tropospheric polar vortex around 5,500 to 9,100 metres (18,000 to 30,000 feet) above the surface.

Usually, when the weather forecasters are talking about the polar vortex, they’re referring to the tropospheric vortex, which is the one that rips apart and plunges cold air towards mid-latitude cities, such as New York.

But this study looked at the stratospheric polar vortex, which can have a bigger, but more subtle effect on mid-latitude weather.

After looking at satellite data over the past three decades, the team showed that the stratospheric polar vortex has gradually been moving towards the Eurasian continent, and getting weaker over the past 30 years.

That might sound like a good thing for warm weather lovers, but a weaker polar vortex means a vortex that’s more likely to break, and those breakages are what send unseasonably late winter blasts of cold air down to the rest of the world.

When the polar vortex is strong, on the other hand, all that cold air gets contained nicely in the Arctic circle where it traditionally is at that time of year.

The weakening of the polar vortex isn’t necessarily new – it’s something several studies have shown over recent years. But this study also shows that the vortex is moving away from North America and towards Europe and Asia during February each year – and that could cause the east coast of the US to get even colder.

“The meteorology is complicated, but the study says this shift tends to result in more of a dip in the jet stream over the east coast during March, which leads to colder temperatures,” writes Jason Samenow for The Washington Post.

The study also found that this vortex shift is “closely related” to shrinking sea ice coverage in the Arctic – particularly in the Barents-Kara seas – and increased snow cover over the Eurasian continent.

But that link is still a little tenuous. The main issue here is that researchers have found a correlation, but no one has been able to show exactly how melting ice in the Arctic sea is causing the polar vortex to shift.

“I thought the paper presented adequate evidence to support its conclusions, but obviously one paper is not going to settle an issue,” James Screen, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter in the UK, who wasn’t involved in the study, told Samenow.

“The problem with most if not all of the Arctic/jet stream studies has been the lack of a clear physical cause and effect relationship, with correlations found but mechanisms as yet uncovered,” added Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric research, who wasn’t involved in the study.

The team admits they don’t have all the answers just yet, but that the relationship between the polar vortex and Arctic ice loss is worth investigating further.

“The potential vortex shift in response to persistent sea-ice loss in the future, and its associated climatic impact, deserve attention to better constrain future climate changes,” they conclude.

Unfortunately, researchers will have plenty of opportunity to explore this link this winter, with the temperature around the North Pole 36 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) warmer than it should be right now, and the ice sheets struggling to freeze up.

The research has been published in Nature Climate Change.