Winter Forecast 2018/19 | El Nino WINTER will bring Severe Snowfall & Freezing conditions!

NOAA’s Climate prediction centre announce a 75% chance of an El Nino winter this year and whilst it is not expected to be the strongest ever seen it will still effect the weather we see.

In summary El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. It is known to trigger intense weather patterns across the world.

Typically El nino winters will lead to colder weather towards the Gulf states of the U.S whilst being milder than usual in the North West of the country. Higher than usual precipitation can tend to give way to potentially record breaking snowfalls later in the season.

For the UK and the North West of Europe El Nino winters tend to be colder than average which will of course increase the likelihood of snowfall events. Whilst individual snowfall events look likely this winter they will almost certainly be interspersed between milder spells due to the temperate climate of the UK.  So those hoping them headlines of ‘4 months of crippling snow’ would be true are likely to be dissapointed. 

Other factors to consider for the UK also point to a colder winter:

At present the current solar cycle is the 24th. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 in February 1906.

2018 is also running close to the lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic ever for this time of year. This increase in fresh water has been linked with a slow down in the Gulf stream and an increase in Northern Latitude blocking.

Will the USA see a bitterly cold winter?

Well for the snow lovers out there the news you have been waiting for is…

Well not good.

NOAA have recently gave their thoughts on the upcoming winter of 2018/19 and with a strong El Nino likely a warmer than average winter is expected.

So what is El Niño?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In layman’s terms, the ENSO cycle is a scientific study of the temperature fluctuations between atmospheric and ocean temperatures in the central Pacific. Of these two phases, La Niña is considered to be the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and El Niño is considered to be the warmer phase. While both phases occur seasonally, historically El Niño is more likely.

The NOAA is predicting a 70% chance of an El Niño pattern winter for the Northern Hemisphere.

When it comes to the winter weather forecast for the 2018-2019 season, the NOAA has reported that there is a 70% chance that we will have an El Niño winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the United States.

What does this mean for early winter?

Based on the early prediction for an El Niño winter, the NOAA has predicted that the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies will all see below average to equal chances of precipitation from October through December. However, Colorado, parts of Utah, and the Southern Rockies are all expected to see above-average precipitation for the start of the season. New England is expected to see average precipitation throughout the start of the winter.

The NOAA is predicting higher than average precipitation throughout the Rockies and Colorado, with lower than average precipitation in the PNW, and average precipitation across New England.

While precipitation is expected to fluctuate across the country, the El Niño prediction calls for warmer than average temperatures across the entire country from October through December.

Winter Weather Forecast 2018 2019

The NOAA is predicting warmer than average temperatures across the entire country to start the season off.

What does this mean for mid-to-late winter?

As winter progresses into January through March, most resorts across the entire country are forecasted to see continued equal to low precipitation averages. However, parts of Alaska and the Southern Rockies are expected to see higher than average precipitation in the second half of the winter.

The NOAA is predicting that many resort areas across the United States will see either equal or less than average precipitation throughout the second half of the winter season.

When it comes to the temperature, the entire country is expected to see warmer than average temps continuing throughout the second half of the season.

Warmer temperature patterns across much of the United States are expected to continue straight through to March.

Can we trust this early forecast?

While predictions for low precipitation averages and warmer temperatures are undoubtedly startling for all of the powder chasers among us, it’s important to remember that this early forecast is just that, an early forecast. When it comes to on-hill conditions, individual storm cycles and short-term predictions are far more likely to accurately forecast conditions than anything months out.

Long story short? It’s far too early to make any definitive call, and while the early predictions don’t look great, there is really no telling what the season will bring. Make sure to check back in the coming months for both the Farmer’s Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac weather forecasts, as we will be updating you on every early season prediction as they become available.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming to put the UK in the Freezer with Heavy SNOW!

Sudden Stratospheric Warming…

Heard of it before? Well dont worry if not because its likely everyone will be talking about it over the next few days.

First and foremost lets take a look at what Sudden Stratospheric Warming actually is…

‘A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the Northern hemisphere slows down or even reverses direction over the course of a few days. The change is accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins.’

So what does that mean for the UK?

This is of course the most important part.

Generally speaking the UK will see Westerly winds bringing in mildish air during the winter months which keeps snowfall and freezing temperatures at bay.

However an ‘SSW’ event results in Westerly winds being replaced by Easterly/ North Easterly winds as high pressure is able to take a firm hold over higher latitudes.

This does not always guarentee the colder air will land smack bang over the UK but increases the chances of this happening.

So on the back of this expected ‘SSW’ event the latest model outputs have been throwing up some very cold prospects for the UK.

Over the course of the coming days the exact weather we are likely to see should firm up so we can pinpoint how cold and which areas are at greatest risk of snowfall.

So if you had started to look forward to an early spring & warmer temperatures im afraid you may have to wait just a bit longer.

FREEZING temperatures as low as -12c expected across England tonight!

After the snow comes the bitter cold temperatures.

Many places have seen several inches of snow over the past few days with parts of Wales seeing in excess of a foot of snow!

As we go in tonight the skies will clear and many areas with snow on the ground will see temperatures tumble from highs of between -1 to +2 all the way down to -12c in some rural parts.

This will then lead to an Ice day for some on tuesday as temperatures fail to recover above zero.

Looking further ahead milder air is expected with some rain around on wednesday before colder weather returns for the end of the week.

 

 

UK to remain locked in a bitterly cold pattern for another week with further heavy snowfalls!

The weather today will be a touch warmer than yesterday but the cold spell isnt finished yet!

Next week we will see a second wave of Arctic air head southwards bringing some heavy snowfall for a time for part of Scotland with 10-15cms of snow likely Monday into Tuesday.

By Tuesday all parts of the UK will once again be under the influence of the cold air with some areas seeing wintry showers particularly in the East.

As we head towards the latter part of the week high pressure will be close by reducing the threat of any snowfall however sharp frosts are likely, More so in the far South East of the UK.

Further ahead we see High pressure edge North West towards Greenland as another Northerly outbreak takes hold giving some areas a high chance of seeing further Snowfall.

As we alluded to back in October (Increase in Northern Blocking) high pressure in the Atlantic is proving quite a barrier to the typical Westerly flow and with the tendency to try and push into the Polar regions the frequency of Northerly winds blasting the UK looks to remain high. If this continues throughout winter many across the UK will see some snow falling.

WINTER Storm to produce HEAVY snowfall this weekend with low lying areas at risk of 20cms!

So Scotland is pretty much a sure fire bet to see a pasting over the next 4-5 days with a Met Office warning already in place for up to 20cms.

And we feel that Northern parts of Scotland along with the Highlands will exceed that total with as much as 50cms by Sunday.

However having seen the messages you guys send us what you really want to know is whether the snow starved areas in low lying England, Wales or Ireland will see some.

This is where the headache begins.

The GFS, UKMO and Arpege forecasting models all indicate a Northerly wind bringing cold air south whilst a second area of low pressure pushes in across South West England heading in a North East direction through Saturday.

This Low pressure will interact with the cold air that has been sent flooding Southwards across the UK and snow will become widespread West of the the low pressures centre.

The heaviest snow will fall somewhere in the circle shown in the image below which will be to the North West of the low pressure.

With still plenty of time to change its worth remembering the exact positioning of this will be subject to change which in turn will change the areas at risk but for now this is the most likely scenario.

We will have an update tomorrow.

UK to be plunged into Arctic conditions with the first major SNOWFALLS delivering as much as 50cm to hit this week!

Remember what snow looks like?

Well don’t panic if you don’t. Things look set to change as we go through this week with the first Major snowfalls of the season.

The winds are set to come from a Northerly direction whilst low pressure provides the moisture needed for some  high fall totals for the Highlands and Northern parts of Scotland by Thursday, With warnings totals could reach 50cm!

The snowfall will not be exclusive to those North of English/Scottish border however and as the weekend edges nearer the snowfall becomes more widespread.

By Friday Northern England & Northern Ireland are also like to see Snow showers pushing into Western areas with the risk extending to Wales by Saturday.

As we look past this week the trend follows our initial thoughts with Blocking (similar to the picture shown below) in the Atlantic producing regular cold periods with the potential for snowfall.

Blocking High allowing the UK to be flooded with cold air from the Arctic

Northern Blocking to increase likelihood of a bitter winter

 

Frosty Bonfire night to come with more cold and snowy weather to hit the UK next weekend!

If your heading out to see some fireworks be sure to wrap up warm.

Temperatures could widely fall below zero by this evening with temperatures as low as -7c in central Scotland.

Further south will also see a frost with the isolated chance of a snow flurry or two over the hills in Northern Ireland & Wales.

Going forward to next weekend and the weather looks to be dominated by a Northerly flow bringing the usual cold arctic air and in turn will bring with it some snow.

For Scotland and parts of Northern England this could be the first major snowfall of the winter with the potential for up to 15cms in places.

Make sure to keep an eye on our update on this later in the week.

Arctic Outbreak to bring FREEZING temperatures on a widespread scale through the U.S!

The record warmth that much of the U.S. experienced this fall will just be a distant memory next week. A change is coming, courtesy of the first arctic blast of the season, arriving just in time for the beginning of meteorological winter.

Many cities from the East to the Pacific Northwest saw temperatures this fall rank in the top five warmest, and November 2016 was one of the three warmest Novembers on record for locations from the Midwest and Plains to the West Coast. A few cities in the Midwest even set records for latest first freeze.

As we head into early December, a pattern change is finally expected to allow arctic air to spill southward. Below is a look at where the coldest temperatures are currently located.

Current Temperatures

Current Temperatures

This change to colder temperatures will begin to evolve late this weekend and into next week.

A southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada into the western U.S., and will then slide eastward as the week progresses. High pressure at the surface will then dive southward, allowing arctic air to spread into parts of the Lower 48.

Cold Setup

This will be the first arctic air mass of the season for the U.S., just in time to start December.

How Cold Will It Get, and When?

The coldest temperatures of the season so far are expected to arrive next week. Big temperature drops are ahead, with highs and lows dropping 20 to 30 degrees.

These very cold conditions will first be felt in the northern Rockies on Monday and will spread through much of the West and into portions of the northern and central Plains by Tuesday.

(FORECAST: Great Falls, Montana | Salt Lake City | Denver | Albuquerque, New Mexico) – Weather.com

The first sub-zero temperatures of the season for some locations are expected Tuesday through Thursday mornings from the Rockies to the northern Plains.

Forecast Morning Lows

Forecast Morning Lows

High and low temperatures will be as much as 30 degrees colder than average. This translates to high temperatures below freezing for much of the West and into the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest. In fact, highs will struggle to reach double digits midweek in parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

Even with these very cold temperatures, widespread record lows are not expected.

(FORECAST: Bismarck, North Dakota | Omaha, Nebraska | Chicago | St. Louis) – weather.com

It will be windy as well, which will make it feel even colder than what the thermometer reads, resulting in brutal wind chills.

In addition, snow will accompany the cold temperatures, but it is too early to determine exactly where, when and how much snow will fall yet.

Forecast Highs Compared To Average

Forecast Highs Compared To Average

Arctic air will continue to plunge through the Plains and into the Midwest midweek. Above-average temperatures will be replaced with below-average readings. Highs will drop from the 40s to the 20s for much of the Midwest.

Late in the week, the colder conditions will reach the East Coast.

(FORECAST: New York | Washington, D.C. | Atlanta | Orlando) – weather.com

At this time, it appears that temperatures will not be as cold for the East as for the West and Plains. However, it will feel more like winter.

Next Week's Forecast

Next Week’s Forecast

The first freeze of the season may arrive for New York and Atlanta by next weekend, as lows will dip into the 20s and 30s.

High temperatures will drop from the mid-40s to the low to mid-30s for much of the Northeast, and many areas of the South will see highs in the 50s and 60s be replaced with highs only in the 40s.

The chilly conditions will reach all the way to Florida. Temperatures in central Florida will only reach the 60s by late week, compared to 80s early in the week.

UK Temperatures well below freezing with some places at -5c or lower already!

Once again parts of the UK are in for an extremely cold night with the lowest temperature from last night of -7.5 recorded at South Newington under threat.

It is possible we could see the lowest temperature this year.

As of 9pm many areas are below freezing with a few recorded temperatures at -5c

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