Risk of significant snow across the UK on Sunday!

A large area of heavy precipitation is expected to push in across the UK on Sunday heralding a change to slightly milder conditions.

However the initial edge of this will rapidly turn to snow as it bumps into the colder air in situ across the UK.

Snowfall totals maybe limited with the majority of snow quickly turning back to rain after an hour or so however whilst snow falls there is a risk of disruption.

Current model outputs suggest upto 3″ of snow is possible for parts of the Midlands Northwards right up in to Scotland where as much as 6″ could fall.

Scotland itself is likely to see the entire band of precipitation move through in the form of snow whilst elsewhere will see a rapid thaw of any lying snow and a period of heavy rain which should clear away by 9pm.

Next week looks to start off fairly breezy with various spells of rain until around Friday when calmer, drier and potentially milder weather will hopefully be the main theme for the weekend.

 

UK Braces for Thundersnow, Blizzards, Heavy downpours and winds of up to 80MPH in a week of wild weather!

As you could probably tell by the headline, Everything bar the kitchen sink is thrown into the mix this week.

Many areas will see snow overnight and into Tuesday, Particularly in the West of Scotland, NW England, Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Alot of this will be in the form of showers which will be somewhat hit and miss however they will be particularly heavy with the possibility of thundersnow due to the unstable air being dragged in all the way from Greenland.

The snowy scene will continue right across the UK up until Wednesday evening when a storm roles in off the Atlantic bringing powerful winds and possible flooding to coastal areas overnight for Southern Scotland/Northern England.

As this storm moves through those on the northern extent (Largely Scotland) will see a spell of snow that could bring with it up to 15cms on top of that seen previously with heavy rain for many areas elsewhere.

In the wake of this storm the conditions will quickly cool down again bringing further snow showers right up until the weekend!

If you want to enjoy some of the highest falls of snow this coming week then perhaps now is a time to head to either Nevis Range or Glencoe Mountain with over 1 metre expected.

 

 

1 METER of Snow to bury Scotland as the UK faces weeks of further snowfalls!

Remember the heavy snow a couple of weeks back, Or a couple of days ago or maybe even today?

Well theres going to be even more, Tomorrow and the day after and the day after!

Infact for parts of Scotland snow could fall every day over the next two weeks with totals in the Highlands of up to 100cms!

The snowiest spell for years looks extremely likely as the UK becomes locked in a cold yet wet pattern with regular snowfalls.

Scotland as expected will retain the coldest air so those in England, Wales, Ireland and N.I can still expect some wet and slightly less cold days however even further South snowfall will never be to far away.

Many highly rated weather models suggest snow will continue to be a threat for Scotland with 2 or 3 incursions elsewhere over the next 10 days which could produce more significant snowfalls as we head in to January.

All this is following on from a Winter that has seen many areas experience the most snow since the Bitter winter of 2010!

 

 

Snow clearing away but there’s plenty more to come!

Large parts of the UK saw some incredibly heavy snowfall through the early hours with Thundersnow witnessed in the Rugby area!

As major roads became impassable snow ploughs took to the streets to help those stranded.

This afternoon will see that band of snow clear away to the South East so we’re taking a look at when and if any more snow is on its way.

So is it a case of IF or When?

That one is simple, When.

Snow looks set to return to the UK on more than one occasion over the next 5-7 days with the first noticeable falls expected on Friday for areas of Northern England and Scotland with the snowfall lingering all day for areas near the Lake District. This could see anything between 2 and 10cms depending on altitude.

Further ahead sees the Scottish Highlands battered by snowfall on numerous occasions before the risk extends south of the border once again later next week.

At such range any details are not certain so we will update you on that nearer the time.

Warnings issued! HEAVY Snowfall set to blanket the UK as Storm Caroline opens the floodgates to bitter Arctic air!

An outbreak of freezing winter weather is expected to bring snowfall across many parts of the UK over the coming days with warnings of 20cm+ falling across many areas!

The third named storm of the season ‘Caroline’ will sweep to the East of Scotland throughout Thursday with powerful winds sending Arctic air rushing South.

These strong winds will see the bitter conditions spread south very quickly and introduce heavy snow showers which may merge to provide longer spells in certain areas by Friday.

Much of Scotland, North West England, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Wales and parts of the Midlands are at particular risk.

Initially there is the expectation that there will be varying amounts over relatively small areas as is often the case in showery set ups however on Sunday an area of Low pressure is expected to cross Southern parts of the UK bringing an organised area of snow approximately 150-200miles wide blanketing a large area with as much as 10cms on top of what may have already fallen.

The exact track of the low pressure is still to be nailed down but current model outputs would see Wales particularly hard hit.

This band of snow will finally clear the South East by around midnight with freezing temperatures leading to icy conditions for Monday morning as the mercury falls as low as -10c across the snow fields in Wales and -2 to -5c elsewhere.

 

UK to remain locked in a bitterly cold pattern for another week with further heavy snowfalls!

The weather today will be a touch warmer than yesterday but the cold spell isnt finished yet!

Next week we will see a second wave of Arctic air head southwards bringing some heavy snowfall for a time for part of Scotland with 10-15cms of snow likely Monday into Tuesday.

By Tuesday all parts of the UK will once again be under the influence of the cold air with some areas seeing wintry showers particularly in the East.

As we head towards the latter part of the week high pressure will be close by reducing the threat of any snowfall however sharp frosts are likely, More so in the far South East of the UK.

Further ahead we see High pressure edge North West towards Greenland as another Northerly outbreak takes hold giving some areas a high chance of seeing further Snowfall.

As we alluded to back in October (Increase in Northern Blocking) high pressure in the Atlantic is proving quite a barrier to the typical Westerly flow and with the tendency to try and push into the Polar regions the frequency of Northerly winds blasting the UK looks to remain high. If this continues throughout winter many across the UK will see some snow falling.

Bitterly Cold air moving over the entire UK with Heavy Snow in Scotland & Wintry showers elsewhere!

The weather is currently taking a turn for the colder with Scotland having already seen some quite widespread falls of snow.

As we go through today and into weekend the whole of the UK plunged into this bitterly cold arctic air.

By friday temperatures will remain below zero for Scotland with a continuation of the snowfall particularly in Western areas whilst further South max temperatures will be around 5-6c.

There will also be Snowfall for parts of England, Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales however latest model outputs have backed away from any large frontal snowfall event with the risk of any widespread falls reduced. Wintry showers restricted to Western areas producing temporary coverings is now the most favoured outcome.

Looking further ahead to the beginning of next week shows a risk of heavy snowfall for Scotland with the potential for 10cms+ quite widely before winds veer more towards a North Easterly direction giving those along the east side of both Scotland and England a chance of wintry showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

WINTER Storm to produce HEAVY snowfall this weekend with low lying areas at risk of 20cms!

So Scotland is pretty much a sure fire bet to see a pasting over the next 4-5 days with a Met Office warning already in place for up to 20cms.

And we feel that Northern parts of Scotland along with the Highlands will exceed that total with as much as 50cms by Sunday.

However having seen the messages you guys send us what you really want to know is whether the snow starved areas in low lying England, Wales or Ireland will see some.

This is where the headache begins.

The GFS, UKMO and Arpege forecasting models all indicate a Northerly wind bringing cold air south whilst a second area of low pressure pushes in across South West England heading in a North East direction through Saturday.

This Low pressure will interact with the cold air that has been sent flooding Southwards across the UK and snow will become widespread West of the the low pressures centre.

The heaviest snow will fall somewhere in the circle shown in the image below which will be to the North West of the low pressure.

With still plenty of time to change its worth remembering the exact positioning of this will be subject to change which in turn will change the areas at risk but for now this is the most likely scenario.

We will have an update tomorrow.

UK to be plunged into Arctic conditions with the first major SNOWFALLS delivering as much as 50cm to hit this week!

Remember what snow looks like?

Well don’t panic if you don’t. Things look set to change as we go through this week with the first Major snowfalls of the season.

The winds are set to come from a Northerly direction whilst low pressure provides the moisture needed for some  high fall totals for the Highlands and Northern parts of Scotland by Thursday, With warnings totals could reach 50cm!

The snowfall will not be exclusive to those North of English/Scottish border however and as the weekend edges nearer the snowfall becomes more widespread.

By Friday Northern England & Northern Ireland are also like to see Snow showers pushing into Western areas with the risk extending to Wales by Saturday.

As we look past this week the trend follows our initial thoughts with Blocking (similar to the picture shown below) in the Atlantic producing regular cold periods with the potential for snowfall.

Blocking High allowing the UK to be flooded with cold air from the Arctic

Northern Blocking to increase likelihood of a bitter winter

 

Winter 2017/18 Forecast shows signs the UK is in for the coldest winter since 2010!

With winter fast approaching we felt it’s time we looked in more detail as to what could be expected over the coming winter months.

Of course as many of you will know forecasting isnt an exact science and the multitude of variables make long range forecasting particularly difficult.

To come up with a better idea of what may happen over a long range we have to rely on current large-scale patterns that persist over months rather than weeks, such as La Nina/El Nino, QBO, Solar activity, etc. – rather than the teleconnections of AO (Arctic Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) – which are only useful in a relatively short period of time.

One particular factor we look at is the state of the ‘ENSO’ (El Nino Southern Oscillation) This year has seen a shift towards what is known as LA Nina.

This is the waters of the Tropical Pacific cooling. At present we are seeing a weak La Nina.

Now the reason this may be a factor is because La Nina has been linked to a tendency to reduce the westerly winds which bring the UK mild air, particularly in early winter. And a La Nina phase of the ENSO has been linked to suppressed temperatures globally too, though this more likely during a strong event than a weak/moderate event that is currently being seen.

Another important factor is to look at what is happening high up in the Stratosphere as The tropical stratosphere is home to the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) – a pattern of high altitude winds which alternate between westerly and easterly direction in regular cycles which help make predicting this part of the puzzle a little more straight forward.

The QBO influences the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a pattern of seesawing atmospheric pressures that dominate European weather.

When the QBO winds are in a westerly/positive phase, pressure differences over the North Atlantic tend to be greater, which strengthens the jet stream which increases chances of mild and stormy winter weather.

This winter, the QBO is expected to remain in an easterly/negative phase, which increases the likelihood of northern Europe having a good shot at a colder, drier winter.

Another key factor that could help towards seeing a colder winter is the upcoming solar minimum, This combined with a negative NAO has the potential to see a weaker Polar Vortex allowing high pressure to assert more influence at northern latitudes forcing cold air south.

Then we have the SST’s, Sea surface temperatures have flipped over the last year seeing warmer temperatures on the Eastern side of the U.S which increases the chance for low pressure systems to form further south and enhancing Northern blocking.

In summary of all the above it is worth remembering the number of factors in predicting day to day weather makes the job of a long range forecast extremely difficult which is enhanced when dealing with a forecast for the UK given its relatively small size and large body of water in the shape of the Atlantic. We can often see the general weather pattern be one conducive to cold conditions overall for North West Europe yet the UK still manages to find itself slightly to warm for snowfall.

Overall however we feel there is an increased chance that the UK will see a colder winter than the last 4 years with temperatures at or just below average for the 3months December to February.

That in itself will be quite different as you can see from the picture.

Even for parts of the South an average winter can have upto 20 days of snow lying on the ground.