The warnings keep on coming as the first significant wintry spell sets it sights on the UK.
Before we get into the detail its worth baring in mind that whilst there is a severe spell of weather expected the duration is expected to be quite short with the main timeframe for severe conditions from Saturday afternoon through till 06:00 Sunday with a return to average temperatures on Monday.
As you can there is alot to contend with over the 18 hour period from midday on Saturday. Even before this period begins areas outside of the areas shaded red may well see some wet snow falling for a short period of time however accumulations are unlikely.
As the bulk of the precipitation bumps into the cold air anywhere from the North Midlands Northwards need to be prepared for snow or freezing rain. Initially snow is expected but as the weather fronts move across the UK it is likely a warm layer will melt the snow as it falls however temperatures at ground level may still be at or below freezing turning this super cooled rain immediately to ice upon impact.
This phenomenon is quite rare in the UK however it can be lethal for those who are braving the elements. Black ice will form readily and trees and powerlines can be brought down under the weight of the ice. The latter may not take place due to the relatively short period of time freezing rain is expected, However slippery surfaces are almost assured so it may be worth getting out and about early if you are still looking for those Christmas presents.
Another hazard will be for any of the high travel routes, The heavy snow in these areas will be accompanied by strong winds gusting up to 60MPH with a risk of Blizzard conditions so expect some road closures.
As for those outside of the areas shaded in red Saturday will be a blustery and wet day from around 3pm onwards before the rain clears away during the evening. This will then be followed up by a much calmer, drier day Sunday.
Parts of the UK will see a short but potentially dangerous spell of weather over the next few hours.
A strong squall line has developed and is currently heading Eastwards across the UK.
As you can see from the picture many cities including Nottingham, Sheffield, Bradford, Leeds, Newcastle, Hull and others places in the area will see some torrential rain and very strong winds for a short period of time making travelling conditions particularly hazardous.
There is also an isolated risk of the odd rumble of thunder as this strong Squall line passes.
After two days of Atlantic influenced weather the river levels are already on the rise and the forecast is for further wet and windy spells to come.
Today we had 89MPH recorded in North Wales and numerous areas seeing gusts of over 50MPH.
Tomorrow morning will see the winds continue with gusts up to 70MPH in the South West of England with wind gusts in the range of 50-60MPH elsewhere before the risk transfers to the North West of Scotland from midday onwards.
Beyong this global model predictions are pointing to further spells of strong winds and heavy rainfalls which will only increase the risk of flooding.
The flood warning information service currently has 15 flood alerts and 2 flood warnings in place for England however that number may well increase over the next 7-10 days should the forecasts verify.
The relative calm of the last week or so is due to come to an end today as a series of powerful Low pressure systems takes aim at the UK.
By midday Tuesday wind speeds will be on the rise as will the amount of rain fall. Temperatures are also expected to rise up to 15c however given the significant wind speeds it won’t feel that pleasant.
The biggest concern for travellers on Tuesday will be that rainfall which is expected to be heavy at times.
As we go into the period for Wednesday through Friday the winds become the main concern with a chance that the fourth named storm of the season is announced by the UK Met Office (Currently a yellow warning for the period Wednesday to Thursday has been issued).
Update: The IPMA Portuguese weather service have since named this Storm Diana so it will take that name rather than the next on the list of UK Met Office named storms.
An area of Low pressure to the North West of the UK is expected to intensify bringing wind speeds of up to 80MPH across high ground in Northern England and parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.
An additional risk for parts of England which itself will face strong winds up to 50MPH and Wales up to 60MPH come in the form of a sting jet which could Amplify wind speeds considerably for a short period of time. Should this occur wind speeds could hit 80-90MPH with damage to trees, Fences, Roof tiles etc.
Beyond that the UK is given a brief respite before further wet and windy weather is expected Sunday into Monday.
The U.S is on the eve of another major winter storm. This one named Bruce is expected to bring severe conditions across a number of states with upto 12″ of snow and 2″ of rain leading to a high risk of flooding.
As we go into the early hours of Sunday snowfall will begin to intensify for Nabraska, Northern Kansas before moving into Iowa later on.
Storm Bruce will then advance North through Sunday evening and into Monday affecting northern Missouri, the far north of Illinois (Chicago 2-4″), the far South of Wisconsin and eventually Michigan during Monday.
The storm will then rotate and deliver heavy blowing snow for North Eastern areas of New York state, Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and parts of Maine on Tuesday with a risk of huge snowdrifts given the considerable wind speeds expected.
Cold air has been filtering across the UK over the past 12 hours and the risk of snow is on the rise.
During the next 48 hours there will be showers of rain, sleet, hail and snow which are expected to be heavy at times.
This coupled with a brisk wind will see the temperatures feel significantly colder than the true air temp.
But what about that threat of snow i hear you ask…
Current model predictions expect a wintry mix with a particular risk for snowfall above 200m. Despite this certain parts of the West Midlands and Wales could see snow down to low levels during the early hours of Wednesday morning making that morning commute a little tricky.
Elsewhere parts of Yorkshire, Scottish central belt and the Scottish Highlands could all see some snowfalling for a time throughout wednesday.
Beyond this the UK finds itself in a battle between low pressure trying to push in and High pressure situated to the North. The high pressure wants to push cold Arctic air southwards whilst powerful low pressure systems want to sweep mild air in off the Atlantic. Given the time range each model output has its own version of how this pans out but should it be high pressure we could be faced with another cold blast as we move into December.
The UK is now on the brink of the first major cold period that could be locked in right up until Christmas. Colder air will begin filtering across the UK from sunday evening and into next week.
Initially the risk is reserved to overnight frosts however from mid week onwards a threat of snow increases.
This first blast of cold weather is unlikely to deliver significant snowfall but it is the risk of a another exceptionally severe blast of Easterly winds as we head to the end of November and early December that could make this a notable event.
Its all being brought about by a change in the Arctic Ocsillation from a positive mode to a negative.
This will allow the blocking high to form resulting in a cold and relatively dry spell that could be difficult to break down.
Although dry conditions are favoured the UK is positioned precariously in this set up. Whilst much of Europe is dry the temperature differencial over the North Sea between the warmish waters and the bitterly cold easterly winds can lead to significant snow showers.
There is also the risk that occasional areas of low pressures will try to force the blocking high eastwards and where the two air masses collide the potential for significant frontal snowfall occurs.
At the moment details for such snowfalls cannot be forecast accurately at this time frame but the building blocks are already being put into place. With that in mind we will post an update and issue weather warnings as/if confidence on increases over the course of next week.
The UK looks set to see a return from an old friend that visited twice in March this year.
Model outputs are increasingly pointing to a bitterly cold Easterly.
The pattern will come about due to a change in the Arctic Oscillation. This change will see the AO turn negative. Opposed to a positive AO werby cold air tends to be bottled up at higher latitudes with a powerful jetstream going East to West we end up with a wavy jetstream which then allows cold air to plunge Southwards.
When the jetstream becomes buckled high pressure has a better chance of building at higher latitudes often referred to as Northern Blocking.
It is this scenario we are seeing from the weekend onwards. Initially cold air will not be to severe due to a lack of cold pooling to our East. However as time goes by this bitterly cold air will begin to make its march West through mainland Europe and eventually to UK shores.
Many model outputs are showing what this could potentially mean with forecasts of European snow cover to be the most widespread it has been in November since the bitter winter of 2010!
Currently there are varying degrees of severity being modelled due to the timeframe concerned however the risk is increasing for conditions similar to those experienced earlier on this year.
So what could we expect?
Well should the Beast return the weather will be bitterly cold with frequent overnight frosts, Biting windchill and snowfall possible just about anywhere.
Beyond this a continuation of a negative AO will see the potential for cold weather persisting well into December.
Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East.
Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.
The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee.
At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls.
We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of.