If may seem a mile away from summer right now but we have had it pretty damn good!
Infact it could still proove to be a record breaker, Beating that summer of 1976.
However if like me your wish for cooler weather was temporary then things might be looking up.
As we head towards the end of August/Early September many weather models point towards a high pressure dominated pattern.
The GFS model hints at high pressure strewn across the UK which would bring sunny days and highs of 25/26c whilst the ECMWF model believes the high pressure will be anchored over Germany thus leading to a Southerly wind flow across the UK and temperatures around 30c!
At this stage there is significant room for change but with cross model agreement of some late summer weather perhaps it’s not quite time to put the BBQ away.
So it looks as though summer is soon to be replaced by wintry weather as snowfall returns the British Isles.
Unfortunately were not all going to see some.
Infact hardly any of us will unless your taking a trip up Ben Nevis.
Snow-forecast suggest snowfall is possible from Tuesday evening and all day on Wednesday as colder air arrives from the North.
So if your taking a trek up the UK’s highest peak be aware conditions may not be what you expected at the summit.
A threat to life is becoming a real concern as the Heatwave takes a more sinister turn later this week.
The threat will come from numerous aspects of what is becoming the Hottest summer the UK has ever experienced.
The Met Office released an Amber warning yesterday due to the increasing temperatures and advised people not to go out during the midday sun with the risk of heat Exhaustion/stroke being high, Especially for those more vulnerable, The young, Elderly and of course your pets.
The dangers dont end there however, Strengthening southerly winds on Thursday will see an increased risk of larger, Longer lasting wild fires causing chaos for fire crews.
Then comes the third and potentially devastating risk of flash floods.
The North East, The Midlands, East Anglia and the South East are currently the highest risk areas for intense Thunderstorms to break out on Thursday & Friday.
These storms could see large amounts of rainfall in a short space of time. Should these be slow moving the risk of homes and businesses becoming flooded will be high due to the exceptionally dry ground being unable to absorb the water quickly. This threat will be coupled with frequent lightning, Large hail & strong winds, Posing a risk to Homes, Cars and anyone caught outside.
Whilst Thunderstorms could be severe it is worth mentioning at this stage there is still some uncertainty regarding how widespread they will be. Combine that with the likelihood storms will be isolated seeing one will be the exception not the rule.
As we look ahead the forecast shows a continuation of the same theme. Hot Hot, Chance of storms and then some more Hot weather.
Today has seen temps nudge up just a tad and that is the very beginning of an exceptionally hot and prolonged summery spell.
The UK may be on the verge of a period of weather that rivals 2003 as hot conditions are expected to last from now onward with no end in sight in the current model output.
The GFS model also predicts 0mm of rainfall throughout its entire prediction which goes to +384 hours for large parts of the UK.
On the back of such a good May and a not to shabby June this inevitably puts the UK at risk of Wild fires and hose pipe bans.
Current outputs are predicting temperatures from London to Bristol up to Manchester and across to Norwich regularly exceeding 30c from Thursday until a week on Monday.
Infact many models see no end in sight to what could turn out to be an absolute classic summer.
Perhaps it could be time to get an air con unit before they sell out?
The UK Met Office have issued a ‘Yellow Warning’ as a spell of severe weather is expected throughout Monday.
Current projections show as much as 100mm of rain falling coupled with wind speeds that could reach 60MPH!
The risk of flooding is very high with a storm surge likely along the East coast.
The Met Office warning reads as follows…
‘Heavy rain is likely to affect southeastern parts of England through Monday, peaking during the morning period. Accumulations of 25-35 mm seem likely widely, with 60-80 mm possible in places, this perhaps most likely for parts of Norfolk and the North Downs; the westward extent of these higher totals remains less certain. Strong winds are also likely with gusts of 40-45 mph likely inland, particularly during Monday morning, and possible gusts to 50-55 mph along exposed coasts and over hills. Coming from an unusual (northerly) direction may increase the likelihood of wind-related impacts. Note that these winds will also lead to large waves, and spray and overtopping around some coasts. It may also be cold enough for a little sleet or wet snow on high ground but this is unlikely to settle.’
Enjoying the hot spell?
As often is the case for the UK the heat and humidity looks set to be the perfect recipe for some big Thunderstorms with the potential for flash flooding on Saturday!
These storms will be isolated but the potential is there for many areas to catch one.
As the high begins to retreat eastwards pressure will fall and allow Atlantic fronts to move in from the west. This combination of warm sunshine and increasing humidity already in place will result in heavy showers or thunderstorms to break out across England, Wales, N. Ireland and southern Scotland.
The areas most likely to see the worst of the thunderstorms will be South West England & into the Midlands.
As we move into next week a more typical weather pattern takes over with an Atlantic low pressure close to the North, So it is looking cooler, cloudier and breezier with some rain at times or showers.
The weather has been far from hot lately, Infact warm days have been few and far between but finally something summery is on the horizon.
Many Weather model outputs have begun throwing up some very welcome projections.
These have included high pressure close to the UK bringing blue skies and temperatures around 18-22c to the even more tasty Spanish Plume style heatwave which would see temperatures surpass 25c for the first time in many months.
Of course the model outputs at such range cannot be 100% relied on however when there is a consistent trend it shows that the signals being picked up are strong and therfor we have to take note.
We will of course up date you this time next week as the timeframe nears closer but for now maybe its finally time to start finding those summer clothes out.
Winter is set to bite back once again as ‘The beast from the East part 2’ nears.
By Friday evening many in the East & North East will begin to see heavy snow showers.
As we go through the weekend these showers will become widespread across England & Wales with as much as 30cms falling in some areas by Sunday.
Once again a strong Easterly will add to the problems with some drifting of the lying snow resulting in chaos for anyone on the roads.
As we reach next week snowfall will die away however severe over night frosts are expected until Friday.
Heavy snowfalls are now almost certain as we go through the weekend & into the early part of next week.
However compared to the cold spell earlier in the month the longevity of the cold & size of area covered in snowfall will be reduced.
But dont let that make you think part 2 is a typical poor sequel that fails to live up to the original.
For those in the hardest hit areas conditions could be as bad if not worse in terms of snowfall.
Currently areas in the South East can expect to see snowfalls of 10-20cms with some places seeing more than 1 foot within a 48 hour spell of dangerous conditions which will include the risk of thundersnow through Sunday.
Other areas at risk include East Anglia, The Midlands, Central Southern England and the South West. Wales may see some showers giving slight accumulations.
We will release a map showing exactly what you need to be prepared for tomorrow afternoon so stay tuned.
The weather has been fairly decent this weekend with some very mild temperatures for the time of year (15c today).
However as we head into February the weather looks set to bite us with incredibly low maximums as the models hint at what many refer to as ‘The beast from the East’
Essentially the UK will see this from an area of high pressure becoming established around Scandinavia dragging the cold air all the way from Siberia.
In the past this has seen our small Island record some extremely cold nights in the region of -10c to -20c and daytime highs of between 0c and -5c.
Of course should this occur the chances of snowfall is greatly increased also with those in the East seeing a sort of Lake Effect snowfall as the relatively warm sea results in some pretty impressive convective showers to form.
Currently any detail is to far off to worry about with outputs suggesting any initial phase of this pattern making itself known around the 5th of February.
With that in mind we will be keeping a very close eye on the various model outputs and update you towards the later part of next week.