There was a time when we had 4 seasons however 2018 has done its best to buck that trend.
Having had the Beast from the East parts 1 and 2 during March the UK quickly went straight into summer with hot weather in April.
This of course went on throughout the summer which was the warmest on record.
These good conditions have also lasted for a large part in Autumn however thats about to change.
Next week we will see an Arctic outbreak spread all the way to the South coast by Friday with a particular risk of snowfall down the western side of Scotland, England and Wales. Whilst no major snowfall is currently expected there could be snow showers in quite a few areas.
We are also at risk of some severe frosts especially in Scotland with temperatures as low as -6c.
We will have further updates on the areas at risk of snow as we get into next week.
The UK has been enjoying a rather mild Autumn so far however it looks as though the UK is about to be plunged straight into winter.
As we go through the next couple of weeks the weather will be dominated by a large area of high pressure sat over the UK bringing fine days and frosty nights.
As we near the end of the month and into early November this high pressure looks set to move towards Scandinavia drawing in an bitterly cold Easterly air flow and of course a risk of heavy Snow once again.
At this stage there is still scope for change however its a weather pattern that could bring significant risks across the whole of the UK as it did earlier in the year. That spell of Easterly winds was responsible for the deaths of 17 people in the UK and 77 across Europe in total.
Despite the risks there is plenty of time for change and therefor there is alot of uncertainty. We will update you as/if the risks increase.
NOAA’s Climate prediction centre announce a 75% chance of an El Nino winter this year and whilst it is not expected to be the strongest ever seen it will still effect the weather we see.
In summary El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), stretching along the equator across the Pacific Ocean. It is known to trigger intense weather patterns across the world.
Typically El nino winters will lead to colder weather towards the Gulf states of the U.S whilst being milder than usual in the North West of the country. Higher than usual precipitation can tend to give way to potentially record breaking snowfalls later in the season.
For the UK and the North West of Europe El Nino winters tend to be colder than average which will of course increase the likelihood of snowfall events. Whilst individual snowfall events look likely this winter they will almost certainly be interspersed between milder spells due to the temperate climate of the UK. So those hoping them headlines of ‘4 months of crippling snow’ would be true are likely to be dissapointed.
Other factors to consider for the UK also point to a colder winter:
At present the current solar cycle is the 24th. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 in February 1906.
2018 is also running close to the lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic ever for this time of year. This increase in fresh water has been linked with a slow down in the Gulf stream and an increase in Northern Latitude blocking.
Were still over two weeks from Haloween, but it’s starting to feel like Christmas in the Rockies as snow is moving through Colorado, western Kansas and parts of northern New Mexico on Sunday.
Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings span across eight states through early Monday in anticipation of potentially heavy snowfall and blowing snow.
Snow is falling across many parts of the Rockies and Plains on Sunday morning. The snow is the result of a strong cold front that will eventually reach as far south as the Gulf
Generally, 2 to 4 inches of snow can be expected across portions of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas and New Mexico through Monday. The highest accumulations will be seen at the higher altitudes. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains and the summit of Pikes Peak in Colorado could see up to 16 INCHES of snow. Strong winds will also create whiteout conditions at various times throughout the day!
Storm Callum is bearing down on the UK and the Met Office has issued a yellow warning.
The warning is for a potential risk to life in the worst affected areas as parts of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland could see gusts over 80MPH. The worst of the winds reserved for the Scottish mountains which will likely see over 100MPH gusts.
High tides are also expected to coincide with strong winds and those susceptible to coastal flooding need to keep up to date with local authority flood warnings.
The full MetOffice warning reads:
A spell of windy weather is expected on Friday associated with Storm Callum.
What to expect
Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely
Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges likely
Some short term loss of power and other services is possible
It’s likely that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves
Gusts of 50 mph are likely with potential for gusts of 60 mph around exposed coasts and hills. High tides are also near their peak, heightening the risk of coastal impacts due to large waves. Strong winds are expected to arrive across Northern Ireland, southwest England and west Wales during Thursday night, spreading to Scotland by Friday morning. Through the day winds are likely to ease across parts of Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland. Elsewhere after a brief lull, winds are expected to strengthen again during the afternoon. In particular for the far northwest of Scotland including the Outer Hebrides. Here gusts are likely to peak at 60-70 mph during the late afternoon and evening before easing overnight