The relative calm of the last week or so is due to come to an end today as a series of powerful Low pressure systems takes aim at the UK.
By midday Tuesday wind speeds will be on the rise as will the amount of rain fall. Temperatures are also expected to rise up to 15c however given the significant wind speeds it won’t feel that pleasant.
The biggest concern for travellers on Tuesday will be that rainfall which is expected to be heavy at times.
As we go into the period for Wednesday through Friday the winds become the main concern with a chance that the fourth named storm of the season is announced by the UK Met Office (Currently a yellow warning for the period Wednesday to Thursday has been issued).
Update: The IPMA Portuguese weather service have since named this Storm Diana so it will take that name rather than the next on the list of UK Met Office named storms.
An area of Low pressure to the North West of the UK is expected to intensify bringing wind speeds of up to 80MPH across high ground in Northern England and parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.
An additional risk for parts of England which itself will face strong winds up to 50MPH and Wales up to 60MPH come in the form of a sting jet which could Amplify wind speeds considerably for a short period of time. Should this occur wind speeds could hit 80-90MPH with damage to trees, Fences, Roof tiles etc.
Beyond that the UK is given a brief respite before further wet and windy weather is expected Sunday into Monday.
Remember last years snowy winter? You know the one, The ‘Beast from the East 1 & 2 etc’ Well it seems as though many councils have taken that on board when considering the potential risks this winter.
Currently 94% of them have ordered either as much or more salt than they did last year in an effort to ensure all roads and pavements remain ice free this winter.
A lot of this salt will be placed in yellow bins to allow residents to grit the pavements themselves. Of course there is the option not to and see if you can watch people slipping and sliding in order to send a video in to you’ve been framed but councils are recomending you make use of them.
So it seems as though when the North wind does blow the roads & pavements should remain clear. Well thats the plan.
The U.S is on the eve of another major winter storm. This one named Bruce is expected to bring severe conditions across a number of states with upto 12″ of snow and 2″ of rain leading to a high risk of flooding.
As we go into the early hours of Sunday snowfall will begin to intensify for Nabraska, Northern Kansas before moving into Iowa later on.
Storm Bruce will then advance North through Sunday evening and into Monday affecting northern Missouri, the far north of Illinois (Chicago 2-4″), the far South of Wisconsin and eventually Michigan during Monday.
The storm will then rotate and deliver heavy blowing snow for North Eastern areas of New York state, Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and parts of Maine on Tuesday with a risk of huge snowdrifts given the considerable wind speeds expected.
Thanksgiving is finally here and its a day of good food and family get togethers. However, Whilst the Traditional turkey dinner may be piping hot the temperature outside wont be so toasty.
A bitterly cold Arctic blast has swept into the U.S with the North Eastern states feeling the full effects today. Cities of Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington could all see the coldest Thanksgiving in nearly a century with temperatures at or below 32f.
Adding to the bitter conditions will be the strength of the wind making the real feel minus 5 to minus 10!
Fortunately for those that dont enjoy the cold the temperatures will be on the rise by the weekend with a return to near normal values.
Cold air has been filtering across the UK over the past 12 hours and the risk of snow is on the rise.
During the next 48 hours there will be showers of rain, sleet, hail and snow which are expected to be heavy at times.
This coupled with a brisk wind will see the temperatures feel significantly colder than the true air temp.
But what about that threat of snow i hear you ask…
Current model predictions expect a wintry mix with a particular risk for snowfall above 200m. Despite this certain parts of the West Midlands and Wales could see snow down to low levels during the early hours of Wednesday morning making that morning commute a little tricky.
Elsewhere parts of Yorkshire, Scottish central belt and the Scottish Highlands could all see some snowfalling for a time throughout wednesday.
Beyond this the UK finds itself in a battle between low pressure trying to push in and High pressure situated to the North. The high pressure wants to push cold Arctic air southwards whilst powerful low pressure systems want to sweep mild air in off the Atlantic. Given the time range each model output has its own version of how this pans out but should it be high pressure we could be faced with another cold blast as we move into December.
The UK is now on the brink of the first major cold period that could be locked in right up until Christmas. Colder air will begin filtering across the UK from sunday evening and into next week.
Initially the risk is reserved to overnight frosts however from mid week onwards a threat of snow increases.
This first blast of cold weather is unlikely to deliver significant snowfall but it is the risk of a another exceptionally severe blast of Easterly winds as we head to the end of November and early December that could make this a notable event.
Its all being brought about by a change in the Arctic Ocsillation from a positive mode to a negative.
This will allow the blocking high to form resulting in a cold and relatively dry spell that could be difficult to break down.
Although dry conditions are favoured the UK is positioned precariously in this set up. Whilst much of Europe is dry the temperature differencial over the North Sea between the warmish waters and the bitterly cold easterly winds can lead to significant snow showers.
There is also the risk that occasional areas of low pressures will try to force the blocking high eastwards and where the two air masses collide the potential for significant frontal snowfall occurs.
At the moment details for such snowfalls cannot be forecast accurately at this time frame but the building blocks are already being put into place. With that in mind we will post an update and issue weather warnings as/if confidence on increases over the course of next week.
The UK looks set to see a return from an old friend that visited twice in March this year.
Model outputs are increasingly pointing to a bitterly cold Easterly.
The pattern will come about due to a change in the Arctic Oscillation. This change will see the AO turn negative. Opposed to a positive AO werby cold air tends to be bottled up at higher latitudes with a powerful jetstream going East to West we end up with a wavy jetstream which then allows cold air to plunge Southwards.
When the jetstream becomes buckled high pressure has a better chance of building at higher latitudes often referred to as Northern Blocking.
It is this scenario we are seeing from the weekend onwards. Initially cold air will not be to severe due to a lack of cold pooling to our East. However as time goes by this bitterly cold air will begin to make its march West through mainland Europe and eventually to UK shores.
Many model outputs are showing what this could potentially mean with forecasts of European snow cover to be the most widespread it has been in November since the bitter winter of 2010!
Currently there are varying degrees of severity being modelled due to the timeframe concerned however the risk is increasing for conditions similar to those experienced earlier on this year.
So what could we expect?
Well should the Beast return the weather will be bitterly cold with frequent overnight frosts, Biting windchill and snowfall possible just about anywhere.
Beyond this a continuation of a negative AO will see the potential for cold weather persisting well into December.