Snow has started to fall in New York City this evening with forecasters warning of potentially 6″.
It is due to a system that has brought snowfall to a large swathe of the North East USA with some areas expecting 12″
For further details on Winter Storm Avery VeryWeather have issued an update which can be found HERE.
Every year around this time we get to witness the stunning Leonid meteor shower as a result of our planet crossing the orbital path of Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle.
As this comet passes small fragments that litters its orbit with debris enters the Earths atmosphere resulting in the Meteor shower as the burn up on entry.
The peak days are expected to be Saturday and Sunday night (Early morning hours predicted peak times) however each night from this evening will offer watchers the chance to see the spectacle.
Unfortunately this years passing is not expected to be classed as a meteor storm where as many as 1000 meteors an hour can be seen however 10-15 per hour should hopefully not keep you waiting to long.
The UK looks set to see a return from an old friend that visited twice in March this year.
Model outputs are increasingly pointing to a bitterly cold Easterly.
The pattern will come about due to a change in the Arctic Oscillation. This change will see the AO turn negative. Opposed to a positive AO werby cold air tends to be bottled up at higher latitudes with a powerful jetstream going East to West we end up with a wavy jetstream which then allows cold air to plunge Southwards.
When the jetstream becomes buckled high pressure has a better chance of building at higher latitudes often referred to as Northern Blocking.
It is this scenario we are seeing from the weekend onwards. Initially cold air will not be to severe due to a lack of cold pooling to our East. However as time goes by this bitterly cold air will begin to make its march West through mainland Europe and eventually to UK shores.
Many model outputs are showing what this could potentially mean with forecasts of European snow cover to be the most widespread it has been in November since the bitter winter of 2010!
Currently there are varying degrees of severity being modelled due to the timeframe concerned however the risk is increasing for conditions similar to those experienced earlier on this year.
So what could we expect?
Well should the Beast return the weather will be bitterly cold with frequent overnight frosts, Biting windchill and snowfall possible just about anywhere.
Beyond this a continuation of a negative AO will see the potential for cold weather persisting well into December.
White Christmas anyone?
The UK has enjoyed an incredibly mild spell of late but all is about to change!
The high pressure responsible for the mild weather had been situated near Germany with low pressure in the Atlantic resulting in Southerly winds.
However the weather gods (model outputs) are in agreement this high pressure will migrate towards Scandinavia and leave the UK on the Southern edge. This will mean a spell of Easterly winds.
Now many of you will be aware what Easterly winds are capable of given the Beast from the East parts 1 & 2 during March of this year.
However towards the end of winter cold pooling to the UK’s East is significant compared to this time of year and that will mean a watered down Easterly this time round.
So what should you expect?
The Weather looks set to cool down from next week with daytime temperatures around 4-7c
Overnight there is a risk of frosts for the entire week, Something that has been rare so far this side of summer.
And as for snow? There may be one of two flurries during next week but nothing that we currently expect to cause any problems.
However…
If the model outputs beyond the next working week prove correct a real snowy, Frosty, Bitterly cold North Easterly could herald the start of winter in a significant way!
Watch this space.
The new week is almost upon on us and with it a spell of significant and disruptive snow for some in the U.S with as much as 12″ falling.
Heavy snow will fall from around midday today for Denver and much of Colorado before spreading into Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma later on in the day.
The largest falls will spread from Denver down to Pueblo and South East to Amarillo with many areas hit by 3″ minimum and up to 12″ in the worst hit areas, Some of which will experience whiteout conditions.
Many of these areas will then see an exceptionally cold night with temperatures 20-30 degrees below the expected normal for November.
The band of snow will progress North East over the course of Monday and Tuesday bringing further significant accumulations for parts of New York State, Vermont and Maine before affecting Montreal and Quebec City in Canada.
Much of Europe has had one of the mildest Autumns for many years following on the theme from the hot summer.
And the positive news is that the latest model guidance suggests this pattern is set to continue for the next two to three weeks with a large area of high pressure over Europe pumping mild air from Northern Africa through Spain, France and the UK.
Of course at this time of year it wont quite be BBQ weather however it will certainly be a welcome spell for those looking to save on the heating bills.
Unfortunately this will not come as good news to all. Ski resorts across the Alps are reporting nearly no snowfall except at the highest resorts and with opening dates just a few weeks away many are keeping fingers crossed the current pattern will break sooner rather than later.
Stormy weather is set to return to the UK tomorrow as a deep area of low pressure currently situated in the Atlantic crosses the UK.
This storm powered by an invigorated jet stream will lead to treacherous conditions for those out and about particularly during Friday evening rush hour.
Maximum wind speeds could hit 70MPH around the West Coasts of England, Wales & Scotland whilst inland areas will see maximum gusts of 50MPH.
Rainfall will also cause problems with as much as 50mm falling.
The Met Office has released the following yellow warning:
A spell of heavy rain and strong winds is expected on Friday.
A few homes and businesses flooded.
Spray and flooding on roads will make journey times longer.
Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected.
Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges.
Some short term loss of power and other services.
Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves.
Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East
Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.
The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee.
At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls.
We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of
So with Christmas coming up just next month we thought we would answer the question.
Well sort of…
With far to much time to accurately give a forecast we will look at historic data to show the likelihood of such event.
Many of you may know that statistically in the UK the chance of a white Christmas is less than a white Easter so lets take a look at what chance there is for where ever you are…
For those of you in the United States wondering the exact same question…
Much of the United States has had a mild time of it lately with temperatures 2-6 degrees above average in particular around the Lakes & the North East.
Those balmy days will soon be forgotten as all that looks set to change with a freezing northerly which will bring a sharp decline in temperatures next week.
The ECMWF model anticipates temperatures to nose dive from around the 6TH of the month as the first major cold incursion takes place. This spell could last well beyond then as the cold air sweeps as far South as Tennessee.
At this range details of snowfall is to far off to predict however should such a significant cold spell take shape many areas will be at risk of large snowfalls with a particular risk of large lake effect falls.
We will bring an update with more details later in the week but for now its one to be aware of.
