The UK is highly likely to see a return of the ‘Beast from the East’ this winter!

Remember the Beast from the East parts one and two last March?

For those who dont, There was bitterly cold temperatures with numerous heavy snowfalls effecting the majority of the UK.

Forecasters believe this came about due to what is know as ‘Sudden Stratospheric warming’

The term SSW refers to what we observe – rapid warming (up to about 50 ­°C in just a couple of days) in the stratosphere, between 10 km and 50 km up.

Ultimately this allowed high pressure to effect the flow of the UK’s weather. Rather than have mild Atlantic storms roll in high pressure blocked the flow from the west, And in turn gave way to periods of Easterly winds.

Since this occured the Atlantic has been very quiet with very little influence on the UK’s weather.

Infact the Summer that comes to an end today may well top the lot as the warmest on record. This once again down to the dominance of high pressure over or close to the UK.

(In summer a high pressure dominated pattern will generally result in warmer than average temperatures, The reverse is true in winter.)

The theory therefor is that should the pattern we have seen for the last 6 months or so persist the risk of a Beast from the East bringing a brutally cold winter and periods of heavy snowfall increase.

There are other factors in play which would add to the potential for a cold winter.

Currently we appear to heading towards a possible Solar maunder minimum, (an extended decades-long period of low solar activity) And a slow down of the Gulf stream due to a increase of fresh water in the North Atlantic.

Its all food for thought and one that could make Winter 2018/19 even more frosty than the last.

We will release a full winter forecast in October when we can look at further contributing factors.

 

America & Canada forecast a brutally cold winter!

The Farmer’s Almanac have published their outlook on the winter 2018/19 and the snow/cold lovers amongst you will be very happy.

Against the grain of what the NOAA predicted they infact expect a Severe winter with many Cold & snowy periods.

The NOAA expects a typical El Nino weather pattern thus leading to a generally warmer than average winter, however the Farmer’s Almanac have now thrown a completely different scenario into the mix.

COLD WINTER AHEAD!

So just how cold will it be? According to the Farmers Almanac the real teeth-chattering arrives mid-February especially in the following zones:  Northeast/New England, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southeast (yes, even the Southeast will be in the chill zone!).

The Farmers’ Almanac, which bases its amazingly-accurate long-range forecast on a mathematical and astronomical formula developed in 1818, is also predicting above-normal precipitation (lots of snow!) for the Great Lakes states, Midwest, and central and northern New England, with the majority of it falling in January and February.

And the predictions for Canada look like this…

30c+ HEATWAVE to hit the UK this weekend!

We said it was going to get warm and as things stand the UK is still in the firing line for a fine few days.

From sunday onwards temperatures should be in the range of 23-28c as one last spell of hot weather looks set.

Through Monday to Wednesday there is a risk of 30c + however there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding just how hot it will peak at.

Unlike earlier on this summer the early signs suggest this wont be around for very long with Sunday to Wednesday looking like the best of the hot spell so make sure you get out there and enjoy it if sunny weather is what your after.

Whats next?

Currently weather model outputs are giving different scenarios beyond Wednesday however following the most likely scenarios this will likely be the back end of the hot spell with a return to near normal temperatures.

Will the USA see a bitterly cold winter?

Well for the snow lovers out there the news you have been waiting for is…

Well not good.

NOAA have recently gave their thoughts on the upcoming winter of 2018/19 and with a strong El Nino likely a warmer than average winter is expected.

So what is El Niño?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In layman’s terms, the ENSO cycle is a scientific study of the temperature fluctuations between atmospheric and ocean temperatures in the central Pacific. Of these two phases, La Niña is considered to be the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and El Niño is considered to be the warmer phase. While both phases occur seasonally, historically El Niño is more likely.

The NOAA is predicting a 70% chance of an El Niño pattern winter for the Northern Hemisphere.

When it comes to the winter weather forecast for the 2018-2019 season, the NOAA has reported that there is a 70% chance that we will have an El Niño winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the United States.

What does this mean for early winter?

Based on the early prediction for an El Niño winter, the NOAA has predicted that the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies will all see below average to equal chances of precipitation from October through December. However, Colorado, parts of Utah, and the Southern Rockies are all expected to see above-average precipitation for the start of the season. New England is expected to see average precipitation throughout the start of the winter.

The NOAA is predicting higher than average precipitation throughout the Rockies and Colorado, with lower than average precipitation in the PNW, and average precipitation across New England.

While precipitation is expected to fluctuate across the country, the El Niño prediction calls for warmer than average temperatures across the entire country from October through December.

Winter Weather Forecast 2018 2019

The NOAA is predicting warmer than average temperatures across the entire country to start the season off.

What does this mean for mid-to-late winter?

As winter progresses into January through March, most resorts across the entire country are forecasted to see continued equal to low precipitation averages. However, parts of Alaska and the Southern Rockies are expected to see higher than average precipitation in the second half of the winter.

The NOAA is predicting that many resort areas across the United States will see either equal or less than average precipitation throughout the second half of the winter season.

When it comes to the temperature, the entire country is expected to see warmer than average temps continuing throughout the second half of the season.

Warmer temperature patterns across much of the United States are expected to continue straight through to March.

Can we trust this early forecast?

While predictions for low precipitation averages and warmer temperatures are undoubtedly startling for all of the powder chasers among us, it’s important to remember that this early forecast is just that, an early forecast. When it comes to on-hill conditions, individual storm cycles and short-term predictions are far more likely to accurately forecast conditions than anything months out.

Long story short? It’s far too early to make any definitive call, and while the early predictions don’t look great, there is really no telling what the season will bring. Make sure to check back in the coming months for both the Farmer’s Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac weather forecasts, as we will be updating you on every early season prediction as they become available.

Spanish plume to send temperatures rocketing as we start September!

No matter where you are in the UK today you probably wont have seen much in the way of sunshine.

But dont pack the summer gear away just yet.

As we head into September high pressure situates itself nicely close to the UK eventually bringing a southerly wind.

This will lead to a spell of hot weather with temperatures potentially reaching 30c.

Unfortunately most weather models dont predict a long spell of hot weather so you may be best suited to making the most of it with the heatwave expected to last between the 2nd and 5th of September.

Early September to see a return of SCORCHING HOT sunshine for the UK as one last heatwave will bring temperatures of up to 30c!

If may seem a mile away from summer right now but we have had it pretty damn good!

Infact it could still proove to be a record breaker, Beating that summer of 1976.

However if like me your wish for cooler weather was temporary then things might be looking up.

As we head towards the end of August/Early September many weather models point towards a high pressure dominated pattern.

The GFS model hints at high pressure strewn across the UK which would bring sunny days and highs of 25/26c whilst the ECMWF model believes the high pressure will be anchored over Germany thus leading to a Southerly wind flow across the UK and temperatures around 30c!

At this stage there is significant room for change but with cross model agreement of some late summer weather perhaps it’s not quite time to put the BBQ away.

Hawaii on high alert as Hurricane Lane strengthens to a category 5 160mph monster!

Hawaii has been put on alert amid fears a massive hurricane could be about to batter the island, with potential winds of up to 160mph forecast.

The National Weather Service announced that Hurricane Lane had become a Category 5 hurricane, which means it could cause catastrophic damage.

The hurricane is about 500 miles (804km) south east of Honolulu, the capital.

Forecasters have issued a hurricane warning for Hawaii island (also known as Big Island) and a hurricane watch for Oahu, Maui and other smaller islands that make up the archipelago.

Tropical storm-force winds and torrential rain could start arriving on later today!

For more information visit https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

UK to be hit by snowfall over the next 48-72 hours as wintry weather returns!

So it looks as though summer is soon to be replaced by wintry weather as snowfall returns the British Isles.

Unfortunately were not all going to see some.

Infact hardly any of us will unless your taking a trip up Ben Nevis.

Snow-forecast suggest snowfall is possible from Tuesday evening and all day on Wednesday as colder air arrives from the North.

So if your taking a trek up the UK’s highest peak be aware conditions may not be what you expected at the summit.