The UK & US set to face early blast of Wintry weather with HEAVY snowfalls!

Ok before we start this wont affect every single part of the UK and likewise the same goes for the US, sorry Florida.

But lets take a look at the facts, The UK has thus far experienced an october which has seen repeated attempts at a blocking pattern for the mid Atlantic which if becomes sustained will allow a strong Notherly flow to take hold. Currently we have seen the attempts end up being shunted east with the UK left with a glancing blow but should this set up repeat through out winter it will almost certainly result in at least 2 or 3 significant cold spells.

Further to our East the march of snow across Siberia, Russia and in towards Scandinavia has been substantial. It is widely considered that the more snow on the ground in these areas helps to maintain a Northern latitude blocking pattern. This alone doesn’t guarantee the UK snow but it helps. We then have the fact we have low solar activity & LA NINA taking a strong hold which often sees a weakening of the jet stream.

 

The combination of these factors are expected to increase the likelihood of an early start to winter for the UK with model outputs already showing snowfall for Scotland, NI & Northwest England around the second week of November. Of course pinpointing the detail at this range is to far to call but its one we will keep a close eye on.

As we look over the pond to the US we see a massive increase in snow cover north of the border in Canada the likes of which bode very well for the coming winter.

As with the UK a LA NINA winter will bring with it increased snow fall as the Polar jet stream and Pacific jet streams interact, The polar bringing the cold temperatures whilst the Pacific brings the moisture.

Also like the UK the second week of November looks to herald potential for first Heavy snowfalls with the states of  Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Montana, North/South Dakota, Nabraska & Kansas all in the potential firing line.

Increase in Northern Blocking to plunge the UK into the Snowiest winter since 2010!

For Snow lovers out there this winter could be shaping up to be a good one for the UK.

The last 4 years have been all but null and void of any low lying snow and for some you have to go back to the winter of 2010 since the last real taste of winter.

However as winter nears we are seeing some indications through various indices and statistical models, That North Atlantic blocking may be a little more prevalent this year than we’ve seen in the previous four winters.

While it is still early to say for certain we expect a higher frequency of cold spells this winter across northern and western Europe, especially as the winter progresses.

With a pattern similar to that shown above the UK will see numerous Snowfall events as areas of low pressure run into the cold air filtering down from the North on the Eastern flank of high pressure situated around Southern Greenland.

All parts of the UK would be at risk of Significant snowfall largely through the form of Heavy showers in Northern areas and through Frontal snowfall events as weather fronts bump into the bitterly cold airmass further South.

Storm Brian about to hit Britain with Powerful 80MPH winds!

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for the south, western England and Wales with strong winds and potential flooding predicted.

The UK and Ireland will be subjected to its second named storm of the year after ex-Hurricane Ophelia caused three deaths on Monday.

Storm Brian has been caused by a low pressure “weather bomb” in the Atlantic and will smash into UK with winds of up to 80MPH!

The latest Met Office warning reads as follows:

“Between 04:00 Sat 21st and 23:59 Sat 21st

A spell of strong winds is expected. Western and southern coastal transport routes and communities are likely to be affected by large waves and spray, with potential for flooding of properties. Some transport disruption is likely across the whole warning area, with delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport. Short term loss of power and other services is also possible, as well as damage to trees.”

Stormy weather set to continue as Storm Brian is next to smash in to Ireland followed by wales & parts of England!

Parts of the UK are reeling in the aftermath of Ophelia, However the stormy weather looks set to return in time for the weekend!

Potentially the 2nd UK named storm of the season could see winds pack a punch of 70-80MPH.

The Met Office is yet to officially name this one as there is scope for changes in the strength, However South East Ireland, Wales & the South West of England look to be in the firing line.

The timings currently see the South East of Ireland bare the brunt around 3am Saturday morning before Wales and the South West of England Face the most dangerous conditions between 6am and midday. Whilst these areas are likely to see the strongest winds during the middle of the day parts of the midlands will also see wind gusts of 40-60mph.

With time for things to change this is one storm we will keep an eye on and update you with over the next few days.

Ophelia to make landfall with deadly conditions as Southern Ireland could see over 100MPH wind speeds!

In less than 24 hours Ophelia will be making its presence felt across the UK & in particular Ireland where the Southern most coastal regions can expect winds to top 100MPH!

The whole of Ireland will see potentially damaging wind speeds with Trees, Fences, Tiles and other loose objects likely to be victim to the ferocious winds with residents urged to ensure all loose garden furniture, Pots, chairs etc etc are taken in.

Ophelia is also forecast to produce 2 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals nearing 4 inches through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Yesterday Met Eireann took the step of issuing a red warning for the storm that could be the most powerful to hit the UK in 30 years.

The statement from them reads as follows:

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions . Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:

Saturday 14 October 2017 13:18

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

 

 

Record breaking temperatures of up to 27c possible for parts of England thanks to Hurricane Ophelia!

We’ve all heard some of the bad news surrounding Ophelia.

However for parts of England she may be a blessing with the Hurricane dragging a lot of very mild air northwards with her spilling into England.

So much warm air that the temperature record could be broken with temps reaching 26/27c by monday afternoon!

So maybe one last BBQ is on the cards after all.

 

 

NOAA predict Ophelia could be the closest a Hurricane has ever came to UK Shores!

The National Hurricane Center’s latest update on Ophelia shows the Hurricane remaining just that incredibly close to the South West of Ireland.

The latest update which categorises Ophelia as a Cat 1 Hurricane shows a slow East North Eastward movement with the potential for further strengthening over the next 2 days on top of the already powerful 85MPH Sustained winds and gusts of over 100MPH+!

Current projections would bring the worst of the strong winds and heavy rainfall to the South West tip of Ireland with the potential for the worst storm this area has seen in many years.

The latest statement from the NOAA NWS reads as follows:

‘OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC…

Hurricane Ophelia is centered as of 5 a.m. AST about 725 miles (1165 km) southwest of the Azores, moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed a by faster motion toward the east-northeast or northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts – a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).’

Hurricane Ophelia threatens to be the worst storm to hit the UK since 1987!

Tropical storm Ophelia is currently in the Atlantic and is expected to gain Hurricane status within the next 24hours.

Current model outputs vary in its exact track but the UK is likely to see some effects of this potentially dangerous storm.

If the UK find itself in its path constant wind speeds of 40-60MPH with gusts of 80-100MPH possible along with huge amounts of rainfall that would likely bring flooding to certain prone areas.

At this stage the worst conditions (going by the very latest model outputs) will be for the western fringes of Ireland & Northern Ireland however at 5 days out there is plenty of time for changes that may make significant difference.

Aside from the potential for strong winds Orphelia will not mean its all doom and gloom with those in parts of the South East potentially seeing some very mild days as what will then be Ex tropical storm Ophelia drags up some very mild air for the time of the year with 21 or 22c possible.

 

 

Hurricane Nate could make landfall as a Cat 3 Hurricane as New Orleans evacuates!

Located over the Southern Gulf of Mexico, Nate continues to strengthen as it barrels towards the Northern Gulf Coast of the U.S.

After being upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane at 10pm CDT, Nate has continued to gradually strengthen and currently now has max winds of 80mph, with higher gusts.

Nate is likely to continue strengthening over the next 24-30hrs while it remains in a favorable low shear, moisture-rich, and thermodynamic environment.

The official NHC forecast brings Nate onshore early Sunday morning near SE LA as an 85mph CAT 1 hurricane. I will note, however, that the SHIPS model does indicate a 50/50 chance of Rapid Intensification (RI) occurring within 24hrs, a 30knot + increase in winds.

Therefore, I would prepare for a CAT 2 or 3 hurricane. This hurricane is likely to be much stronger than originally forecasted at the time of landfall.

In addition, Nate is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding, damaging hurricane force winds, isolated tornadoes (mainly North and East of the center), and dangerous storm surge.

Due to Nate’s fast forward speed, the threat of flooding has been greatly reduced, however, it still remains a threat to life and property.

In preparation of these expected impacts, local NWS Officials have issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, as well as Storm Surge Warnings from SE LA eastward to the FL Panhandle.

These impacts are expected to arrive in the warning area by Saturday evening.

It is also important to remember that impacts from this hurricane can and will be felt well away from the center. I urge all local residents to complete preparations and/or evacuations by early Saturday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba