Currently two Hurricanes are lurking out in the Atlantic but look increasingly likely to interact with each other when they near British shores!
Maria currently has maximum sustained winds near 70mph but some slight weakening is forecast before a potential convergence with Hurricane Lee at the weekend.
At 4am BST, the NHC update said Hurricane Lee was last located about 570 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
It was moving west at 9mph but is expected to swing around and begin heading northeast through the Atlantic within the next two days.
Lee currently has sustained winds of 110mph, making it category 2. The hurricane will turn into a major category 3 hurricane today before weakening begins tomorrow.
The potential caused by Maria and Lee coming together could give rise to the UK’s second named storm of the season.
Both hurricanes are located around the northeast coast of America but we expect them to get together around Sunday.
The jet stream is powering up and as it swings southwards towards the end of the week it will help steer the remnants of these storms towards the UK.
Current forecasts show the North of the UK seeing the strongest winds however the potential is for a small area of Low pressure to develop in the jet stream further south in the UK which could bring damaging wind gusts should one form. At this range small developments are not possible to forecast but it will be something we keep a close eye on.
Maria has been named by the National Hurricane Centre as a Hurricane and looks to pose a huge threat to many areas including the United States.
Current forecasts show rapid strengthening of the system as it barrels towards the Dominican Republic.
Other areas in its path include the Leeward Islands, St. Lucia, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Anguilla, Martinique, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
At this range the track is still not guaranteed and landfall for the United States is something we cannot say will happen for certain, However it is something to be aware of as the latest model outputs show this to be a possibility.
The early signs from the long range models are starting to throw up some interesting signals.
As ever at such range they have to be taken with more than a pinch of salt but the signs are encouraging non the less.
Now why they are not suggesting a solid 3 month long freeze we do expect the UK to see a winter more Akin to the 1981-2010 average.
This might not sound like a winter wonderland, But on the back of 3 very mild and almost completely void of any snowfall winters the signs are good.
So to get an idea of what an average winter looks like for the UK lets see the average number of days with snow on the ground:
As you can see from the image above much of the UK including low lying areas tend to have 5 to 10 days of snow lying on the ground.
Which is 5 to 10 days more than most of us have seen in recent years.
We will issue our full detailed UK winter forecast at the beginning of November so stay tuned.
Autumn is certainly here and to bring it in with a bang we have our first named storm of the season!
Aileen is set to hit the UK with winds of 50-75MPH widely with potentially over 80MPH in the more exposed areas.
The Met Office this morning released a warning for the storm…
A deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds across much of England and Wales during Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. An Amber National Severe Weather Warning is in place, warning of gusts of 55-65 mph in particular across parts of Cheshire, Lancashire, Derbyshire, Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire. Gusts up to around 75mph gusts could also be possible in exposed locations such as the coast and hills in these areas.
A Yellow weather warning for rain is also in place for parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England and Southern Scotland which warns of 30-40mm of rain falling within 6-9 hours which could cause some disruption.
Chief forecaster Frank Saunders said: “Storm Aileen is expected to bring strong winds of up to 75mph to a central segment of the UK and an Amber weather warning has been issued. As well as the strong winds, there will be some heavy rain pushing eastwards overnight which could see accumulations of 30-40mm.
The low pressure system that is bringing these strong winds will move fairly swiftly from west to east over the UK and although there will still be some disruption through Wednesday morning, the winds will ease by the afternoon leaving a day of blustery showers.”
The question is often asked whenever Hurricanes make the news and this year is no different.
So first and foremost Irma is heading into the States and will weaken rapidly to become a general area of low pressure.
Jose is expected to head north and curve back towards the UK. However this will lead to significant weakening as the cooler water temperatures will prevent Jose maintaining the strength is has right now.
Aside from this high pressure is trying to establish itself nearer to the UK over the next week which if established will divert any remnants (Which by this stage will be no more than a general area of low pressure) to the north west of the UK.
Finally just to clear up, Can the UK get Hurricanes?
The answer is a resounding “NO”.
Yes we can get hurricane force winds as many experienced in 1987 however that was not a hurricane. For an area of low pressure to be classed as such they have to form over warm waters far higher than that around the UK and have sustained winds of at least 74MPH. The later is potentially possible but the sea temps will never be high enough.
Once again America is braced for another major Hurricane just days after Hurricane Harvey finally clears.
The Caribbean Islands are first to be under threat with that risk then extended to the whole of Florida where the governor has issued a state of emergency.
Yesterday he came our and said the following
“Hurricane Irma is a major and life-threatening storm and Florida must be prepared. I have continued to be briefed by the Florida Division of Emergency Management on Hurricane Irma and current forecast models have Florida in Irma’s path – potentially impacting millions of Floridians. Today, given these forecasts and the intensity of this storm, I have declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida to make certain that state, federal and local governments are able to work together and make sure resources are dispersed to local communities as we get prepared for this storm. In Florida, we always prepare for the worst and hope for the best and while the exact path of Irma is not absolutely known at this time, we cannot afford to not be prepared. This state of emergency allows our emergency management officials to act swiftly in the best interest of Floridians without the burden of bureaucracy or red tape.
In Florida, we know that the best way to protect our families in severe weather is to have a plan. I urge all Floridians to remain vigilant and stay alert to local weather and news and visit FLGetAPlan.com today as we all prepare for Hurricane Irma. We will keep monitoring and issuing updates on Hurricane Irma as it approaches Florida.”
With this in mind if you know those who live or are likely to be in Florida at the weekend make sure they are aware in order to take any precautions necessary.