The weather for the UK is currently summed up by one word. ‘Changeable’.
But will that continue or will we join many southern parts of Europe that are seeing extremely hot temperatures?
Well to find the answer we have to look at the outputs the models are showing and weighing up the likelihood of one outcome or another.
Currently there is a tendency to bring low pressure in from the west and set up shop to the North West of Northern Ireland.
This has the net result of allowing a fairly mobile pattern to be the main influence of our weather bringing ‘Changeable’ Weather.
However secondary areas of low pressure are hinted at by the models setting up further south allowing a straight Southerly wind flow bringing that very hot air with it.
As you can from the image above the hot air is expected to be within touching distance as we head towards August.
The difficult part is to establish how far south any secondary low will head and can it stay far enough to our south west to draw up that hot feed of air.
The latest output shows the secondary low pushing east to quickly and thus bringing cooler air across the UK. The reason this occurs is due to the lack of a strong area of high pressure over France/Germany area. At this range however it is not unusual to see the model outputs under estimating the strength of high pressure and hitting the default mode and pushing the entire system through very quickly.
As we head nearer to the time we will be keeping a close on any upgrades with regards to the strength of the high over Europe to see if we can tap in to that summer weather once again.
For now though. One word. Changeable.