UK Temperatures well below freezing with some places at -5c or lower already!

Once again parts of the UK are in for an extremely cold night with the lowest temperature from last night of -7.5 recorded at South Newington under threat.

It is possible we could see the lowest temperature this year.

As of 9pm many areas are below freezing with a few recorded temperatures at -5c

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Click here to Check the current temperatures

UK Met Office releases its Winter forecast highlighting the risk of a COLD start to winter!

The Met Office has released its long-range outlook for December 2016 to February 2017, highlighting the risk of a cold start to the winter for the UK.

Latest observations from around the globe and long-range weather prediction systems suggest that the early part of the winter period is more likely than usual to be cold. This implies a heightened risk of wintry weather during December and into January.

Overall, it should be stressed that more normal winter weather, with temperatures ranging from slightly below average to mild, is still marginally more likely. Nevertheless, the risk of cold conditions at the start of winter is now greater than it has been in recent winters.

The graphic below illustrates the current outlook for temperatures in early winter. For a normal year the most likely outcome is in the near average category.  This winter, however, the probability is shifted towards below average temperatures, with the most likely outcome – the widest part of the curve – remaining above the ‘cold’ category.

seasonal_forecast_graphic

Doctor Jeff Knight, who leads the production of the Met Office long-range outlook says: “This time last year our outlook gave advance warning of the risk of the very mild, stormy and wet start to winter that was linked to the flooding in Cumbria, but this year indications are very different. Weather patterns with more frequent northerly or easterly winds are favoured, which increases the risk of cold weather.”

Our winter weather patterns respond to influences from across the globe: Currently, the winds circulating around the North Pole in the stratosphere – between 10 and 50 km in altitude – are much weaker than normal and this is expected to weaken the westerly winds across the Atlantic.

Furthermore, tropical East Pacific Ocean temperatures are slightly below average, just above the threshold for La Nina.  Although these cool conditions also tend to impede the UK’s usual westerly winds in early winter. Warmth in the North Atlantic Ocean near Newfoundland and record low Arctic sea ice are also contributing to the same tendency, favouring a colder-than-average early winter.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, explains: “The stratosphere, tropics and Arctic sea ice are all trying to push our weather towards becoming colder over the next few weeks.  Although it is not guaranteed, our long range predictions and those from other forecast centres suggest an increased risk of cold weather patterns early this winter.”

Later in the winter, there appears to be a shift towards less risk of cold conditions. More detail about this period will be available in updates to the Met Office long-range outlook which will be released as winter progresses and our 30-day and week-ahead forecasts will provide advance warning of specific weather events throughout the winter.

BIG FREEZE STARTS TONIGHT as Brits are braced for -10C cold snap which will see temperatures plummet!

BOOKIES are tipping this week to bring the coldest night of the year so far, as Brits are warned by weather experts that temperatures could dip to as low as -10C.

The week across the United Kingdom is set to be sunny during the days, apart from in Northern Ireland and north west Scotland where clouds will linger.

However that won’t stop temperatures from lowering to 7C in northern England, 10C in the South, 6C in Wales, 5C in Scotland and 8C in Northern Ireland throughout today.

But the evenings are when conditions are set to become harsh – starting tonight.

Most of England is set to see temperatures fall to -4C tonight, and -6C in the South.

Northern Ireland and Scotland will fare slightly better with lows of 2C  or 3C.

Met Office forecaster Greg Dewhurst said: “Tonight will be cold with almost a repeat performance for temperatures on Tuesday.

“There’s an area of high pressure that has developed across most of the UK over the weekend and that is due to stick around for the rest of the week.

“That will move southwards, so it will not be as cold in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
“Most places will stay dry until the weekend when there will be a slight risk of rain.”

Ladbrokes have now slashed the odds on the UK seeing temperatures fall below -10C before next Sunday, offering 2/1.

If this happens, it would make temperatures the coldest of 2016.

Jessica Bridge of Ladbrokes said: “Winter’s coming, and the odds are falling as quick as the temperature’s dropping, leaving punters already dreaming of a White Christmas.”

The Polar Vortex is shifting increasing the chances of a bitter winter for America and Europe

Climate change has hit the Arctic worse than ever over the past few years, but that doesn’t mean the Northern Hemisphere is going to be experiencing a mild winter this year.

In fact, a new study shows that the polar vortex is shifting, and it’s going to make winters on the east coast of the US and parts of Europe even longer, with exceptionally cold temperatures expected during March.

The polar vortex is that lovely zone of cold air that swirls around the Arctic during winter. When parts of the vortex break apart and splinter off, it can cause unseasonably cold conditions in late-winter and early-spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

This happened in early 2014 – as you can see in the satellite image above – and caused an extreme weather event in the northern US and Canada.

But not many people realise there are actually two polar vortices: the stratospheric polar vortex, which is about 19,800 metres (65,000 feet) above the surface of the Earth; and the tropospheric polar vortex around 5,500 to 9,100 metres (18,000 to 30,000 feet) above the surface.

Usually, when the weather forecasters are talking about the polar vortex, they’re referring to the tropospheric vortex, which is the one that rips apart and plunges cold air towards mid-latitude cities, such as New York.

But this study looked at the stratospheric polar vortex, which can have a bigger, but more subtle effect on mid-latitude weather.

After looking at satellite data over the past three decades, the team showed that the stratospheric polar vortex has gradually been moving towards the Eurasian continent, and getting weaker over the past 30 years.

That might sound like a good thing for warm weather lovers, but a weaker polar vortex means a vortex that’s more likely to break, and those breakages are what send unseasonably late winter blasts of cold air down to the rest of the world.

When the polar vortex is strong, on the other hand, all that cold air gets contained nicely in the Arctic circle where it traditionally is at that time of year.

The weakening of the polar vortex isn’t necessarily new – it’s something several studies have shown over recent years. But this study also shows that the vortex is moving away from North America and towards Europe and Asia during February each year – and that could cause the east coast of the US to get even colder.

“The meteorology is complicated, but the study says this shift tends to result in more of a dip in the jet stream over the east coast during March, which leads to colder temperatures,” writes Jason Samenow for The Washington Post.

The study also found that this vortex shift is “closely related” to shrinking sea ice coverage in the Arctic – particularly in the Barents-Kara seas – and increased snow cover over the Eurasian continent.

But that link is still a little tenuous. The main issue here is that researchers have found a correlation, but no one has been able to show exactly how melting ice in the Arctic sea is causing the polar vortex to shift.

“I thought the paper presented adequate evidence to support its conclusions, but obviously one paper is not going to settle an issue,” James Screen, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter in the UK, who wasn’t involved in the study, told Samenow.

“The problem with most if not all of the Arctic/jet stream studies has been the lack of a clear physical cause and effect relationship, with correlations found but mechanisms as yet uncovered,” added Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric research, who wasn’t involved in the study.

The team admits they don’t have all the answers just yet, but that the relationship between the polar vortex and Arctic ice loss is worth investigating further.

“The potential vortex shift in response to persistent sea-ice loss in the future, and its associated climatic impact, deserve attention to better constrain future climate changes,” they conclude.

Unfortunately, researchers will have plenty of opportunity to explore this link this winter, with the temperature around the North Pole 36 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) warmer than it should be right now, and the ice sheets struggling to freeze up.

The research has been published in Nature Climate Change.

The UK set for Heavy Snow and Freezing temperatures as we start December!

So it looks like winter is going to start with proper winter weather for many of us!

A number of the weather forecasting models have been hinting at an arctic outbreak for a number of days and as we close in on the start of winter confidence amongst forecasters is growing.

Were not going to start with how much snow and for who as pinning down that detail is to far off to be worth mentioning.

However the pattern most likely for this period will see winds from the North or North-West initially bringing snow for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northwest England.

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The risk doesn’t end there though, Once cold air is established the possibility of more general snowfall as low pressure crosses the UK is increased and could see areas such as the Midlands and the south east at risk.

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Its certainly shaping up to be an interesting period of weather. We will have a further update closer to the time along with any early warnings of snowfall including where and how much should it be required.

More heavy snow for the states throughout this week!

More Wintry Weather Headed For Rockies, Upper Midwest and Northeast through Thanksgiving Week.

System #1: Through Thanksgiving Day

Tuesday

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday’s Forecast

Snow is expected from eastern North Dakota to central/northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This will spread across northern Wisconsin into parts of northern Michigan by Tuesday night.

Just south of this snow, a mix of rain, freezing rain or wet snow may impact areas from eastern South Dakota to southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.

Snow will also linger in parts of the central Rockies, adding to the fresh snowfall in ski resorts across parts of Colorado and Wyoming, just in time for those spending their Thanksgiving holiday there.

Wednesday/Thursday

Wednesday's Forecast

Wednesday’s Forecast

Wet snow will persist Wednesday from Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Lower Michigan. Mainly rain is expected from the southern Great Lakes southward.

Wednesday night, rain and snow showers will push eastward into parts of the interior Northeast, possibly as far east as western New England by early Thanksgiving morning.

Thursday's Forecast

Thursday’s Forecast

By Thanksgiving Day, any remaining snow from this first system will be rather patchy and light from Upper Michigan to the interior Northeast and northern New England. It’s also possible that southeastern New England may see some light snow or freezing drizzle early in the morning before changing to light rain.

As mentioned before, the snowfall from this system won’t be as heavy or widespread as we saw with Winter Storm Argos.

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall Forecast

The best chance for moderate accumulations of up to a half foot or so is from eastern Minnesota into northern and central Wisconsin.

Generally lighter accumulations are possible elsewhere in the upper Midwest and interior Northeast from “system number one.”

System #2: Thanksgiving Day Through Saturday

A second system will follow immediately in the first’s track in this busy, active weather pattern. It’s not expected to be a major system by any means, but will deposit more snow in some areas. Here is the general timing/impact of this system.

  • Thanksgiving Day: Light snow in parts of the northern Plains, heads into the Upper Midwest in the evening.
  • Friday: Some light, wet snow or rain will travel through the Great Lakes into northern New York and northern New England.
  • Saturday: Lingering rain/snow showers are possible in the interior Northeast. Some potential for more significant snow in parts of northern New England.

Storm Angus to smash into the UK with Winds of 80MPH+

Storm Angus is currently knocking on the door for southern most Britain bringing with it the threat of strong winds, Heavy rain and possibly even some snow!

The first of the named storms to come crashing into the UK after what has been a relatively calm autumn will no doubt be a shock to the system for those caught in the worst of the conditions.
The strongest of the winds which has the potential to cause minor damage with roof tiles, Fences and power lines at risk will be for those in the far south and south east of the country.
Elsewhere it will feel breezy and wet with a large amount of rain associated with the system, Whilst for the highest parts of Wales and then later on the Peak district Snow is a possibility for a short time.

See below the UK MetOffice’s take on storm Angus.

“Storm Angus is expected to bring some very strong winds to coastal counties of southeast England for a time on Sunday morning, when gusts of 70-80 mph are possible. Be prepared for disruption to travel services, interruptions to power supplies and some damage to buildings.”

angus

Whilst the Chief Forecasters view was as follows…

"Angus" will move northeast across southern and southeast England during Sunday morning. Southerly then southwesterly gales are likely with storm force winds developing over the English Channel and affecting some coastal districts. Very squally showers are also expected such that isolated gusts of 70-75 mph are also possible further inland in the Amber warning area.

Damaging Tornadoes hit Wales and the Midlands!

A number of tornadoes have struck parts of Wales and the Midlands, BBC Weather says.

Brought in by a squally cold front, they are expected to clear to the east through the course of Thursday afternoon.

Any further tornados are likely to be confined to northern parts of the Midlands over the next couple of hours.

However, further squally winds are anticipated, BBC Weather added.

Storms and high winds have already caused damage to buildings and cars in mid and west Wales.

There were reports of a small tornado near Aberystwyth and the town’s RNLI station recorded a gust of 94mph.

Dyfed Powys Police said several roads are closed in the Machynlleth and Aberystwyth areas due to fallen trees.

Thomas Scarrott, director of the Clarach Bay Holiday Village, near Aberystwyth, said around 15 to 20 caravans had been upended and overturned.

He said: “As I was walking out of the door the wind started to increase and it went from zero to take cover in seconds. My initial thought was it must have been a tornado.”

Scottish Power has confirmed it is experiencing disruption to its power network in mid Wales.

First Major Snowstorm to hit with fall totals of 1-2 FEET!

Minnesota snow lovers may get an inexplicable urge to ski Roseau by Saturday. Test out the trails near Thief River Falls?

Some models are printing out 1-2 FEET of snow for the Red River Valley. Residents of the Dakotas and the mountains of Wyoming and Montana may also get a chance to romp in the snow by late week. You remember snow, right?

Deep breaths. Windblown rain ends as wet snow late Friday and Friday night as a major, full-latitude trough of low pressure spins up an intense storm capable of 20-50 mph winds. This cyclone will be a subtle (yet blunt) reminder that we’re roughly 2 weeks away from “Meteorological Winter”, which runs from December 1 to March 1; historically the coldest 90 days of the year.

Relatively mild weather continues this week but as jet stream wind buckle a major storm tracks across the Plains, with rain changing to snow from west to  east during the day Friday.

GFS differs from the “Euro” (ECMWF) in terms of which areas may see the heaviest snow. This far out that’s not unusual. If you’re traveling across the northern tier states from Montana to Minnesota you want to pay attention to the  latest forecasts.

A transfusion of colder air will have much of America reaching for heavy jackets and coats (remember those?) by the weekend, but next week looks relatively quiet and storm-free.


GFS Solution: Red River Valley Snow Blitz

NOAA’s model pulls a  few flurries across central and southern Minnesota, with the heaviest snows (1-2 feet) falling on the Red River Valley. Source: WeatherBell.


Arctic Blast of cold air to bring Snow to parts of northeastern US this weekend!

The coldest air of the season so far is set to dive into the northeastern United States this weekend.

A cold front will dive southward on Friday, causing temperatures behind it to plummet well below normal for the weekend.

“A brisk northwest wind will bring an early December-like chill to the Northeast this weekend,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido said.

High temperatures from New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., will be around 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for mid-November. The strong northwest winds will make it feel far colder.

Saturday will be the coldest day of the weekend.

Warm clothing will be required for any outdoor activities on Friday night into Saturday as AccuWeather Realfeel® Temperatures will be in the 30s from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and in the 20s from New York City to Boston.

There will be a winter chill for Friday and Saturday night sporting events across the region.

In interior portions of the Northeast, Realfeel® Temperatures will fall into the teens during Saturday morning.

The cold air moving over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes will produce persistent cloud cover and areas of rain and snow to the southeast.

“This setup will be conducive for lake-effect rain and snow showers,”

During Friday night, light rain will change to all snow, even at lower elevations away from the immediate lakeshore, as temperatures fall below freezing, bringing a coating to areas that have the most persistent snow showers.

While snow showers will initially melt on area roadways during Friday night, slick spots may develop once temperatures fall below freezing.

Snow showers will then mix or change over to rain showers during Saturday afternoon across the lower elevations of Pennsylvania and New York state as temperatures rise above freezing. Little or no accumulation is expected.

“In the higher elevations of Pennsylvania and New York state, precipitation may stay in the form of snow all day Saturday,” Vido said.

Snow showers will also stretch into northern New England. A few flurries may even approach the I-95 corridor. Enough snow may fall to shovel, especially across the Catskills, Adirondacks and White and Green Mountains by Saturday night.

Temperatures will recover a bit on Sunday afternoon as high pressure pushes the brunt of the cold away, along with the clouds and wind. However, highs will still be below average.