Hurricane Madelaine could smash into Hawaii!

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Monday issued a hurricane watch for the Big Island of Hawaii, saying Hurricane Madeline could pass “dangerously close.”

The storm should be near or over the Big Island by Wednesday, said forecaster Derek Wroe.

At 11 p.m. Monday (2 a.m. PDT Tuesday), the center said the storm had strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph.

The Center’s advisory on Madeline predicted it will pass “dangerously close” to the Big Island Wednesday and Wednesday night. But it added that some weakening is forecast through late Wednesday.

Residents could experience hurricane force winds, heavy rain and high surf, the Center said.

Madeline was 515 miles east of Hilo late Monday night and moving west-northwest at 9 mph.

Hawaii County, which covers the Big Island, urged residents to restock their emergency kits with a flashlight, fresh batteries, cash and first aid supplies.

The county recommended that residents create evacuation plans and secure outdoor furniture.

Brace for a Frigid Winter with Heavy Snowfall!

The Long Range Weather Forecast has been released by The Old Farmer’s Almanac and it’s looking great for snow lovers!

They are predicting above average snowfall and frigid conditions. The end of November is looking the snowiest along with Mid-January and early February.

As far as temperatures go, we are warned to brace ourselves for the teeth chattering temperatures during the months of January and February for the Northeast and Midwest. A wet and rainy Winter is in the forecast across the Pacific Northwest, but plenty of warmer than average days expected across the South!

5 AM

Now, it’s up to you to decide if you will be following The Old Farmer’s Almanac Long-Range Weather Forecast which has been predicted for hundreds of years. The almanac is based on a secret formula that founder, Robert B. Thomas, designed using solar cycles, climatology, and meteorology. It claims to have an 80 percent accuracy rate so the choice is yours! Nonetheless, stay warm this winter!

La Nina to bring HEAVY Snowfall and Severe Cold this winter!

El Niño officially came to an end in early June, and experts are calling for a La Niña to develop in its footsteps.

La Niña is the cool counterpart to El Niño, characterized by unusually low ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

La Niña puts emphasis on the northern jet stream while weakening the southern jet stream, keeping moisture in the northern tier of the country.

The jet stream is a narrow zone of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, separating warm air to the south and cooler air to the north.

At this point in the season, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a weak La Niña to develop during late fall and into the winter. An area of warmer-than-normal water off the northwestern U.S. coast, nicknamed the “warm blob,” is inhibiting a strong La Niña from forming.

The pocket of warm water is expected to linger, influencing La Niña and its impacts in the United States.

Here’s what a weak La Niña could mean for the U.S.:

A developing weak La Niña will lead to an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean through the rest of the peak hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.

“Historically, some hurricane seasons that have followed a transition from El Niño to La Niña have been very active. It’s possible we could flip from one extreme to the other, from below-normal seasons the past three years to an above-normal year in 2016,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

La Niña will suppress the westerly winds that typically disrupt tropical development in the Atlantic, giving way for more systems to form.

Transitioning into the fall, warmth could hold on late in the season across the eastern United States.

(Image credit: Accuweather)

La Niña will bring its full impacts to the U.S. throughout the winter season, Pastelok said.

In the East, snowfall is expected to be around normal. La Niña could lead to some big East Coast systems during the second half of the season.

“Areas like southern New York state and northeastern Pennsylvania that missed out on snow last year could see higher-than-normal totals this winter,” Pastelok said.

Colder-than-normal conditions are predicted to grip the northern Rockies and northern Plains over the late fall and into the winter, with some harsh spells at times.

During the coldest periods in the winter, nighttime temperatures could drop into the minus 30 to minus 40-degree Fahrenheit range.

“The wet and stormy weather that will hit the South into the fall will begin to quiet down in the winter as La Niña really kicks in,” Pastelok said.

However, the expected weak strength of La Niña will allow some moisture to sneak into the region at times.

For flood-ravaged areas like Missouri and eastern Texas, the mainly dry weather will prove beneficial.

Dry weather will exacerbate drought conditions across the Southwest. Central and Southern California could face the harshest conditions, including below-normal snowpack in the southern Sierra Nevada.

The northwestern U.S. will experience the brunt of La Niña’s impacts, leading to stormy conditions throughout the winter. However, the warm blob will limit the cold a typical La Niña would bring to the area.

Alaska could face another warmer-than-normal winter on the heels of a record-breaking season last year.

Brazil’s Ephemeral Flooded Desert

Little-known to the world is a stunning desert oasis of Lençóis Maranhenses National Park in Maranhão, northeastern Brazil.

Endless strips of deep turquoise pools wind through sweeping white sand dunes in this 1,500-square kilometer natural wonder. The pools come from the accumulation of water from the rainfall that occurs every start of the year. The oasis is at its most spectacular between July and September when the pools are at their fullest. But by October, the desert begins to dry up and the cycle starts a new.
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A variety of fishes are able to thrive in the freshwater pools which are thought to have originated from birds carrying their eggs from the sea. The national park also houses its own unique flora and fauna that have adapted to the periodical drying up of the area.

Many people are also park residents, working primarily as fishermen during the rainy season and farmers of nearby tillable land during the dry season.

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August HEATWAVE to arrive towards the end of the week with temperatures exceeding 30c!

A hot plume of tropical air from the Continent will sweep in parts of the UK towards the end of next week bringing the warmest spell of weather since July’s scorching heatwave.

As far as current output shows this hot spell FINALLY marks the start of a genuine barbecue summer, with August potentially delivering the best spell we will see.

Thermometers will start to rise this weekend with highs of 25C (77F) forecast in the south while the north nudges 21C (70F).

Parts of the southeast are likely to have breached the 30C (86F) mark by the end of Sunday next weekend with the rest of the country basking in the mid 20Cs.

It will turn dry and very hot and sunny before an extreme heatwave returns with searing heat

The start of next week will see a brief cooler blip but the mercury will rocket again by next weekend.

If the Global Forecast System predictions are correct then the potential is there for at least 10 HOT days in the south of the country with temperatures exceeding 25-27c daily.

However at such range reliability is low and this is echoed by the ECM Weather forecasting model that shows only 3-4 days of hot conditions.

All we know is its good to see this weather being shown in the charts once again so dont put the sunscreen away just yet!

Warm sunshine hot weather uk summer 2016 forecast

7 Clues climate change is here to stay

Everywhere you look, there’s evidence of the changing climate all around us, and scientists recently confirmed that the window for averting the worst damage has probably closed.

Even if we make dramatic changes now – and, given the current political climate, that’s unlikely – we will be living with climate change for the rest of the foreseeable future. We’ve rounded up 7 stories that show not only that climate change is here, but that it isn’t going away anytime soon.

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1. The curious cold spot that has scientists thinking their worst fears have come true:

It reads like something out of a bad action movie: while temperatures climb around the globe, a single, ominous cold spot in the middle of the ocean has scientists more than a little freaked out. Problem is, it’s really happening. Last year, scientists at the NOAA discovered that a spot in the ocean just below Iceland and Greenland has registered temperatures colder than any time in recorded history. This cold spot suggests that water current circulation is slowing, which could mean rising sea levels and an altered climate for Europe and North America.

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2. CO2 levels are likely to stay above dangerous 400ppm for the rest of our lives

Scientists believe that CO2 concentrations of 450ppm are the turning point for climate change. If we stay below that number, we can probably keep global warming below the alarming 2-degree increase we are trying to avoid. But even if we manage to dodge the 450ppm bullet, researchers believe we are unlikely to get below 400ppm in our lifetimes. Even worse, if the trends continue as they are right now, we could hit 450ppm in just two decades.

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3. We’ve already lost five Pacific Islands to climate change

We talk about climate change impacts as something that will occur in the future, but we are already seeing the devastating results today. Case in point: five islands in the Pacific ocean have disappeared beneath the waves. Over 560,000 people live on the Solomon Islands and these inhabitants are facing increased threat from the rising oceans, while five vegetated islands have vanished since the mid-1900s.

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4. Melting glaciers may be slowing down the Earth’s rotation

Speaking of rising sea levels, earlier this year, scientists discovered some startling news: changing sea levels may actually be slowing down the Earth’s rotation. As the cold waters from the melting glaciers move towards the equator, it slows down the speed at which the mantle rotates. Meanwhile, the core has been speeding up. Think of an ice skater who opens her arms to slow her spin and you get the idea.

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5. Alaska is so warm in the spring that the Iditarod race has been forced to truck in snow

Global warming isn’t just impacting coastal cities or tropical islands. In Alaska, the 1,000-mile long Iditarod has had a rocky few years thanks to unusually warm winters and springs. This year, the Iditarod didn’t have enough snow cover to run sleds over the first 11 miles of the race. While it might not seem like a big deal if we can’t continue to participate in luxuries like winter sporting events, imagine the same impact on native populations and animals who rely on the existing environment for their livelihoods.

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6. Grizzly polar bear hybrids are appearing in the warming Arctic

Recently, scientists have noticed that grizzly bears and polar bears have been interbreeding as the Arctic continues to warm. Climate change has been altering the environment of the two species, bears have been forced to adapt. Sadly, the ones who aren’t so lucky have succumbed to starvation.

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7. The current rate of climate change is completely unprecendented

Despite what the naysayers may have you believe, the current rate of climate change is no cyclical event. Researchers have determined that what we are experiencing is without historic precedent. Even if you look at a climate event 120 million years ago when a massive period of volcanic activity altered global CO2 levels, the current rate of change is still far quicker. But it seems like folly to go down without a fight.

2015 turned out to be another record year for climate change

The latest state of the global climate report reveals 2015 was a record-breaking year, following on from 2014, which recorded the previous highest average global surface temperature.

In 2015 – the warmest year on record for the second year in a row – the Earth’s surface reached more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time since records began and the levels of dominant greenhouse gases again reached new high levels.

Kate Willett – a senior scientist with the Met Office, specialising in climate monitoring – leads the Global Climate chapter of the report published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). She said: “Looking at a range of climate measurements, 2015 was yet another a highly significant year. Not only was 2015 the warmest year on record by a large margin, it was also another year when the levels of dominant greenhouse gases reached new peaks. Measurements from a series of monitored glaciers showed continuing retreat for the 36th consecutive year, and sea levels and ocean heat content were all at their highest levels.”

The most prominent climate feature of 2015 was the development of an strong El Niño event – the development of a warm pool across the east-central Tropical Pacific Ocean – which helped raise global average surface temperatures in 2015 and CO2 levels. One of the most significant impacts of 2015 was the changes to the world’s water, or hydrological cycle brought by the strong El Niño. Kate Willett added: “Drier-than-average conditions were common, with below average soil moisture and groundwater storage contributing to intense and widespread fires across Indonesia. Globally there was a 75% increase in the extent of land experiencing severe drought, bringing hardship to many communities.”

BAMS report 2015

State of the Climate in 2015

The State of the Global Climate report is compiled by more than 460 authors – from 62 countries – including significant contributions from the Met Office, which leads the report’s Global Climate chapter. The report is led by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

Commenting on the report, Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, said: “This ‘annual physical’ of Earth’s climate system showed us that 2015’s climate was shaped both by long-term change and an El Niño event. When we think about being climate resilient, both of these time scales are important to consider. Last year’s El Niño was a clear reminder of how short-term events can amplify the relative influence and impacts stemming from longer-term global warming trends.”

“The State of the Climate report continues to be critically important as it documents our changing climate. American Meteorological Society (AMS) is proud to work with so many from the science community to make this publication happen,” said Keith Seitter, Executive Director of the AMS.

The State of the Climate in 2015 is the 26th edition in a peer-reviewed series published annually as a special supplement to the BAMS. The journal makes the full report openly available online.

The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought, why this is terrifying

Hurricanes, large and small, have eluded U.S. shores for record lengths of time. As population and wealth along parts of the U.S. coast have exploded since the last stormy period, experts dread the potential damage and harm once the drought ends.

Three historically unprecedented droughts in landfalling U.S. hurricanes are presently active.

A major hurricane hasn’t hit the U.S. Gulf or East Coast in more than a decade. A major hurricane is one containing maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph and classified as Category 3 or higher on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson wind scale. (Hurricane Sandy had transitioned to a post tropical storm when it struck New Jersey in 2012, and was no longer classified as a hurricane at landfall, though it had winds equivalent to a Category 1 storm.) The streak has reached 3,937 days, longer than any previous drought by nearly two years.


(Brian McNoldy)
Twenty-seven major hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic Ocean basin since the last one, Wilma, struck Florida in 2005. The odds of this are 1 in 2,300, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher from Colorado State University.

Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since 2005’s Wilma, which is shocking considering it averages about seven hurricane landfalls per decade. The current drought in the Sunshine State, nearing 11 years, is almost twice as long as the previous longest drought of six years (from 1979-1985).


(Brian McNoldy)
Sixty-seven hurricanes have tracked through the Atlantic since Florida’s last hurricane impact. The odds of this are about 1 in 550, Klotzbach said.

Even the entire Gulf of Mexico, and its sprawling coast from Florida to Texas, have been hurricane-free for almost three full years, the longest period since record-keeping began 165 years ago (in 1851). The last hurricane to traverse the Gulf waters was Ingrid, which made landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm, in September 2013.

Scientists have no solid explanation for the lack of hurricane landfalls. The number of storms forming in the Atlantic over the past decade or so has been close to normal, but many have remained over the ocean or hit other countries rather than the United States.
A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

[What’s driving our major hurricane landfall drought? Study says it’s just dumb luck.]

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still says “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

[Recurring East Coast low pressure may be saving U.S. from major hurricanes]

Adam Sobel, a climate scientist at Columbia University, cautions that the drought in no way invalidates global warming predictions or the expectation that storms will grow more intense in future decades. The “notion that the hurricane drought in the Atlantic has somehow disproved the consensus projections of climate science is wrong, because the drought is still a relatively short-term fluctuation in a single basin, while the projections are for long-term global trends,” he writes on his blog.

And as impressively long as the various droughts are, McNoldy said there have been numerous storms that have almost ended each of them in recent years.

So the drought is hanging on by a thread. A single major hurricane striking Florida’s Gulf Coast, McNoldy said, would break all three standing droughts simultaneously.

Concerns about preparedness and increasing coastal population

It’s only a matter of time before the luck reverses and storms start bombarding the U.S. coast again.

Growing coastal populations and lack of recent hurricane activity, from Florida to Texas, raise concerns about the nation’s readiness.

“Hurricanes are going to hit the U.S. again and people are going to be shocked by the magnitude of the disaster,” said Roger Pielke Jr., professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
[U.S. coastline vulnerability to hurricanes is growing to unprecedented levels]

The Associated Press reports Florida’s coastal communities have added 1.5 million people and almost a half-million new homes since 2005, the last time there was an onslaught of storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects that by 2020, the U.S. coastal population will have reached 134 million people, 11 million more than in 2010.

“Hurricane damage and destruction is a direct function of how much accumulated wealth there is,” Pielke said. “We’ve put a lot of stuff along the coast. If we’re in this 10-year drought, loss potentials in some places may now be two times higher than it was a decade ago.”

Experts are conflicted as to whether residents — after a long break from dealing with hurricanes — will be well-prepared when the next storm threatens.

Kim Klockow, a visiting scientist with NOAA who studies meteorology and social behavior, said one major concern “is that communities might not be as practiced in getting prepared simply because they haven’t had to do it in a while.”

But she said she doesn’t think residents will tune the storm threat out. “I’m not sure if the long period of calm will make them less concerned,” Klockow added.

Gina Eosco, a social scientist who works with National Weather Service through the consulting firm Eastern Research Group, agrees with Klockow. “Coastal residents are savvy,” she said. “They understand that by living on the coast they are taking some risk. An individual does not necessarily need direct experience to decide to evacuate or prepare for a hurricane.”

Still, Pielke said consequences are inevitable for out-of-practice communities. “You can do all the talking and planning you want, but until you go through a hurricane, you don’t know what you’re up against,” he said. “The lessons of inexperience are pretty costly.”

[Why Florida’s record-setting hurricane drought portends danger]

Eosco offered this advice: “I cannot overstate the importance of preparing before a storm happens. This starts with a conversation. Each resident with experience should share it with their new neighbors.”

Storm Chasers Get Up Close and Personal with Massive Colorado Tornado

A particularly impressive tornado touched near Wray, Colorado recently and in true form the storm chasers were on it, capturing some jaw-dropping video as they approached sometimes just hundreds of feet from the funnel. Several tornadoes were reported in the same area.

tornado

According to NBC News five people were injured and buildings were damaged by one twister, which was half a mile wide at times

Watch:

Here’s another brief video of the same tornado:

And a 360 degree video:

And a couple more:

Think its safe to say these are some of the most stunning up close shots of a Tornado we have seen in some time!

The most powerful Tornado ever recorded!

The 1999 Bridge Creek–Moore tornado (locally referred to as the May 3rd tornado) was an extremely powerful F5 tornado in which the highest wind speeds ever measured globally, 301 miles per hour (484 km/h), were recorded by a Doppler on Wheels (DOW) radar.

The tornado devastated southern portions of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, along with surrounding suburbs and towns during the early evening of May 3, 1999. Throughout its 85-minute existence, the tornado covered 38 miles (61 km), destroying thousands of homes, killing 36 people (plus an additional five indirectly), and leaving US$1 billion in damage, ranking it as the fifth-costliest on record, not accounting for inflation.

The tornado first touched down at 6:23 p.m. Central Daylight Time (CDT) in Grady County, roughly two miles (3.2 km) south-southwest of Amber. It quickly intensified into a violent F4, and gradually reached F5 status after traveling 6.5 miles (10.5 km), at which time it struck the community of Bridge Creek. Once it moved through the unincorporated community, it fluctuated in strength, ranging from F2 to F5 status before it crossed into Cleveland County. Not long after entering the county, it reached F5 intensity for a third time as it moved through the city of Moore.

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By 7:30 p.m. CDT, the tornado crossed into Oklahoma County and battered southeastern Oklahoma City, Del City and Midwest City, before dissipating around 7:48 p.m. CDT just outside Midwest City. In terms of structural losses, a total of 8,132 homes, 1,041 apartments, 260 businesses, 11 public buildings and seven churches were damaged or destroyed.

In the wake of the tornado, large-scale search and rescue operations took place in the affected areas. A major disaster declaration was signed by President Bill Clinton the following day (May 4), allowing for the state to receive federal aid. In the following months, disaster aid amounted to $67.8 million.

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In light of the fatalities that occurred under highway overpasses, the notion of them being safe areas to seek shelter was dismissed, and they were from then on considered to be one of the most dangerous places to be during a tornado. Reconstruction projects in subsequent years led to a safer, tornado-ready community. In May 2013, similar areas adjacent to the 1999 storm’s track were again devastated by an EF5 tornado, resulting in 24 fatalities and extreme damage in Moore.