Another day closer and thunderstorms are still on the minds of many forecasters as we head towards next week!
The potential is still there for some considerable storms Tuesday night into Wednesday, So much so that ‘Convective Weather’ have issued the following…
“Day 4 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 Jul 2017 – 05:59 UTC Wed 19 Jul 2017
ISSUED 14:06 UTC Sat 15 Jul 2017
ISSUED BY: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/
Negatively-tilted Atlantic trough will slowly approach from the west on Tuesday – on its forward side, advection of a high WBPT airmass will occur from Biscay/France into southern Britain. This, combined with falling heights aloft, will aid destabilisation of the mid-levels through isentropic lift.
Given the lead time, there will undoubtedly be some uncertainty as to the exact forecast evolution (even on the day of the event, let alone some 4 days in advance!), but a broadbrush approach has been adopted for now to highlight some reasonable consistency amongst various NWP guidance. Upgrades to SLGT and perhaps MDT are likely as confidence improves nearer the time.
Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms will begin to develop on Tuesday afternoon over northern France / Channel Islands / English Channel, and then drift northwards in some fashion to S/SW Britain, continuing N or NE through the evening and overnight across portions of England and Wales, and perhaps the Republic of Ireland also. The exact track, coverage and timing rather uncertain at present, as one would expect. Given the magnitude of CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates, lightning will likely be frequent where thunderstorms occur.”
Currently storms are still likely however should low pressure push further east then the likelihood of storms would decrease.
With this in mind there is still a high level of uncertainty and we encourage people to keep an eye on the forecasts over coming days.