So it looks like winter is just about to show its first real hand with forecasters warning of Blizzards for parts of the UK.
We are going to take a day by day look at the models and see what you can expect between now and Friday…
For the rest of today the main area at risk of snowfall is the western side of Scotland, with Blizzard conditions possible up over higher ground.
As we get into late evening this risk will filter slowly southwards with the far north west of England also seeing some snowfall.
Thursday morning things finally get going quite widely and although at this stage things will remain showery in nature meaning some of us will see snow whilst a short distance away wont, The overall theme is for more areas to be at risk. By mid day these areas will include Western Scotland, Western parts of England and into Wales along with much of Ireland & NI.
Now what happens between midday and later on in the evening is the forecasters worst nightmare. As a fast moving area of low pressure spreads from roughly north wales and exits the UK close to Dover. Current projections have this area of low pressure bringing with it a wintry mix with the likelihood that initially at least many will see rain. However as it moves south eastwards some models are hinting at a period of snowfall.
The projection for 3pm clearly showing a mixed bag
By 6pm more in way of snowfall, Some of which could be heavy!
And for comparison the EURO 4 model at the same time.
The difference between the GFS and the EURO 4 is the question of how much may settle with the GFS expecting little or no accumulation and the EURO 4 hinting at 2-5cm and upto 10cms in the worst effected areas with regards to that feature.
As that Low exits the UK a smaller disturbance over Ireland is expected to add to the showery activity there to bring longer periods of snowfall, Whilst showers will pack in to other areas further North.
If you thought that was the fun and games over we now head to Fridays headache. This time we look to the east instead as an area of low pressure sinks southwards in the North Sea.
An area of precipitation is expect to bring snow once again. The question still to be answered is how far inland will this snowfall come.
Current GFS output RE Fridays expected snowfall
Finally by Saturday things look as though they will quieten down however there is a 50/50 chance we see an Easterly develop later on to prolong the cold conditions.